Western Railroad Discussion > Heavy rain expected in Northern California...

starting this Wednesday. The GFS (Global Forecast System) computer models are quite alarming: latest forecast has increased the potential for very heavy rain from about a Monterey Bay-Modesto line northward to the Oregon border. Current trends show a strong mid-Pacific moisture tap (high snow levels), with the potential for 8+ inches of rain for the coastal mountains and 12+ for the Sierra's (depending upon elevation) over a 5+ day period. As always during these high rain rate events the UP's Feather River Canyon (and the I-5 corridor) might be impacted...

Here is the current 6-10 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center (be sure to scroll down to see both maps):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/



Allen



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 11/25/12 10:33 by bradleymckay.

It was predicted that California would have more of an "El Nino" winter, meaning warmer and wetter. The winds have also, for the most part, been calm, which I've noticed before. During "La Nina" years, it's drier, but with lots of cold, tough NW winds.

This one could end up being a real gully washer...and the one river I will be most interesting in hearing about: the Eel River along the old NWP. If this gets big, or is followed by another one, you could have high flows on that river again. One year at time, that old RR is getting washed away.

Here in Californias "beautiful" Central Valley (what you get when you mix Wichita, Kansas with Tijuana, Mexico), roughly between Fresno and Bakersfield and Hanford to Porterville, we are in something of a weather shadow. No rain, wind, t-storms, or really much of anything except some morning fog and a few isolated wispy clouds. Been that way for as long as I can remember and scheduled to be that way...well...indefinitely now. It's highly unlikely we will get any rain beyond a light drizzle that lasts more than a few minutes. Definitely won't ever see any deluges and certainly no snow.

Whatever it brings, we need it here!!
C.

Carol Voss
Bakersfield, CA

Here's the NWS El Nino/La Nina webpage:
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

I keep reading 'neutral' for the 2012/2013 season.

Seriously, there is also a known symptom of 'here comes a big one' and it doesn't hit as bad as predicted. Something to do with local water temperatures, or some other weather-tech thingy.

coach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It was predicted that California would have more
> of an "El Nino" winter, meaning warmer and wetter.
> The winds have also, for the most part, been
> calm, which I've noticed before. During "La Nina"
> years, it's drier, but with lots of cold, tough NW
> winds.
>
> This one could end up being a real gully
> washer...and the one river I will be most
> interesting in hearing about: the Eel River along
> the old NWP. If this gets big, or is followed by
> another one, you could have high flows on that
> river again. One year at time, that old RR is
> getting washed away.


The issue with the Eel river is not so much the later levels as it's the crumbling rock mountains that cause land slides that cover the tracks hundreds of feet at a time...and collapsing tunnels...

This same crumbling rock geology common to the region is why US Hwy 101 now bypasses the crumbling Confusion Hill area in Northern Mendocino County...

The Eel river rr corridor is / was the most expensive track in the US to maintain...which is why current plans for NWP do not include going any further north than Willits...

Meanwhile some RR equipmewnt is still stranded in the Eureka area...but there is a proposal for a East-West RR line to Eureka to Red Bluff...mostly along the Cal Hwy 36 route...

WP707 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> coach Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
>
>
> Meanwhile some RR equipmewnt is still stranded in
> the Eureka area...but there is a proposal for a
> East-West RR line to Eureka to Red Bluff...mostly
> along the Cal Hwy 36 route...

Sorry I'm off the weather topic.

This new Rail route would cost at least a hundred million and for what a a few loads of wood? I don't think some new industries or the lumber industries is going to pick back up in the Eureka area, were this service is that badly needed. Whoever proposed to run "mostly along the Cal Hwy 36 route" idea also seem's wild to me as it would require numerous tunnel's, bridges and excessive grades, across some of the most rugged terrain in NorCal. Just my two cent's.Bill

Here is the jist of the rain starting on Wed. NWS which may impact Socal later on in the week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ017&warncounty=CAC113&firewxzone=CAZ217&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement

TCnR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here's the NWS El Nino/La Nina webpage:
> http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
>
> I keep reading 'neutral' for the 2012/2013
> season.
>
> Seriously, there is also a known symptom of 'here
> comes a big one' and it doesn't hit as bad as
> predicted. Something to do with local water
> temperatures, or some other weather-tech thingy.

I thought it had more to do with TV ratings. Every decent rainfall is preceded by a "Storm-of-the-century" alert! Tune in or else!

mapboy

The current Medford Forecast Discussion reads like a SNL script, or maybe a High School version. I think they want to say it could be bad, but stay tuned.

You take them as they come. We've had a couple good rains already this year, and the meadow below my house has sucked up 95%+ of the percipitation. Creeks are still low. Went past Lake Oroville today and it is just where it needs to be this time of year....low. All should be fine.

Tom Y

I'm with Carol - we can use it and, at least up here in the real NoCal, there's no snow to melt so no rain on snow event so little chance of truly serious flooding. Could be wrong, of course, but past history says bring it on, we can handle it. Now, if it keeps up for a couple three weeks? That might be a different story.

Don
Yreka

odub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm with Carol - we can use it and, at least up
> here in the real NoCal, there's no snow to melt so
> no rain on snow event so little chance of truly
> serious flooding. Could be wrong, of course, but
> past history says bring it on, we can handle it.
> Now, if it keeps up for a couple three weeks?
> That might be a different story.
>
> Don
> Yreka


Clarification----------we live about 200 feet up from the Salinas valley floor and we are in absolutely no danger of flooding should the rainfall bring that on-------there are areas in the Santa Cruz mountains which regularly flood (like the annual fires in Malibu) :-) but I don't think wee need to consider bulding an ark here in Prunedale at this point. :-)
C.

Carol Voss
Bakersfield, CA

Current status of the eastern Pacific weather situation is "Neutral" -- that is, neither El Nino or La Nina (roughly, the opposite of El Nino). There was a very weak El Nino last winter, and the trend is suggesting that the winter of 2013-2014 will move into La Nina. But there is no guarantee either way.

About 5 consecutive days of wet weather are currently forecast for central California starting on 28 November. But as always, these forecasts are subject to change.

From last weeks "storm" here in Sacramento.

---

Looking at some of the forecasts and the Jet Flow prediction, it appears that the damage would be from a number of storms hitting the same area. The variable appears to be the how the Jet stream, ergo the storm track, bends and folds up, causing the storms to hit the same area or move around.

Early December is often cold, dry and cold or maybe wet and cold with snow to lower elevations. This storm has that pineapple express look to it, warm, wet and numerous storms. Since it does appear to still be early in the season it's a good time to be prepared for bad weather.

After that 'it's cake'...with some Reindeer fertilizer and mistletoe mixed in.