Western Railroad Discussion > Rave review of "Warnings"

If you are interested in how railroads deal with major storms, I cover that in my book, "Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather." A new, rave, review was posted yesterday. Details here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2014/04/a-new-review-of-warnings.html

Might make a great gift for a grad, Mom, or Dad.

Mike,

How do you go about warning the railroads on a particular line, say UP near Greensburg, KS. Do you give their dispatch just the county, or are you able to give them more exact locations, such as between milepost XXX and YYY?

Thanks

Hi Uncle Bob,

We give them mileposts. The night of the Greensburg tornado we issued a tornado warning for Pratt Sub from MP 326 to MP 342. UP stopped two trains at the edges of the warning and the trains' crews were able to see the tornado cross between them illuminated by lightning. Our warning was issued at 9:12pm, valid from 9:30 to 10pm. The NWS warning for Greensburg was issued at 9:19pm. Because there are times a single DS might have to stop multiple trains, we attempt to provide our RR clients with extra lead time and were successful in this case.

The entire stories of the Udall and Greensburg tornadoes are in "Warnings." You can also find out more about our storm warning service for railroads here: http://enterprisesolutions.accuweather.com/assets/documents/AES_Railroad_Whitepaper_Final.pdf

The book, in addition to tornadoes, tells the story of how weather science eliminated wind shear airline crashes and saves (literally) tens of thousands of lives in hurricanes. It is NOT a "science book" but an uplifting story about courageous scientists saving lives.

Mike

Thanks for the heads up. I didn't realize the weather warnings get that specific, milepost to milepost.

Just got it on the Kindle.

Thanks for the link, as that was an interesting read about the impact and savings on the railroads!

Thank you, Danstar!

Thanks Mike, there are people on here that appreciate your work.
Dale

Having a bit of a hard time trying to find a copy for my iPad at the iBooks store...???

Owen Hardy
Barrel Arbor, TN

Hmmm, science has tamed the weather? Don't say that too loud out of doors, might end up like that guy from the Weather Channel last year or the thousands that die every year in weather-related events. I bet they all wish that science had really tamed the weather. Local weatherman can't even accurately predict same-day weather in my area, so let's not get carried away here!

JG

Hi Owen,

If you download the free Kindle app you can download it from Amazon. If there is a Nook app, it is also available in that format.

The ebook has 16 extra photos we were not able to get into the hardcover version, so I believe you'll find it more than worthwhile.


JG,

I don't know where you live, so I cannot specifically comment. That said, we have clearly TAMED (not conquered) the weather. A quarter-century ago, wind shear plane crashes were frequent and devastating. The last one was 20 years ago thanks to weather science and the courage of Dr. Ted Fujita. If it weren't for tornado warnings, we'd lose 1,500 to 2,000 people each year in tornadoes. Now, we consider a bad year to be a loss of 100. There are authoritative studies showing that, had Katrina come ashore unwarned, 40,000 would have died. The actual death toll was about 2,000 -- weather science saved 38,000 lives.

So, yes, we have tamed the weather. The story of how we did it is fascinating, thus the 5-Star rating of the book at both Barnes & Noble and Amazon as well as this newest critical review.

If anyone else has questions, fire away.

Happy Easter, everyone!!!

Mike

the Malcolm Gladwell book "Outliers" has a section on how the weather has been much better mapped over the past 20 years. With satellite imagery, wind and humidity mapping, etc advance warnings on serious threats can be disseminated.

That's especially true for west coat (US, Canada, etc) storms where you don't have weather stations and observers out at sea to the numbers you have on land. Better warning of heavy snow on Donner and Stevens etc passes.

(It' also one of the issues behind better temperature measuring, ice cap melting or expanding, etc. We can see things we couldn't see 50 years ago.)

"So, yes, we have tamed the weather. The story of how we did it is fascinating, thus the 5-Star rating of the book at both Barnes & Noble and Amazon as well as this newest critical review."

Well, the book may be good but the premise above is misleading and arrogant, in my opinion. NWS statistics show that tornado deaths were the highest ever in 2011, and the most recent 10-year average for tornado deaths much higher than the 30-year average. Same for hurricanes. Other categories static or only slightly better, and some categories for which there is no 30 year old (or older) stats are even worse in the latest years, like wind fatalities. Uh, I think this means things are getting worse, not better. Bottom line to me is with the most recent 10-year averages in several important categories much worse than 30-year averages means that the weather has NOT been tamed. Just more scientific self-congratulatory bluster in my book. Some progress, yes, taming the weather clearly not.

JG
Fort Worth, where today's 10-20% rain prediction is turning out to be a downpour.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/20/14 17:09 by jgilmore.

JG: Respectfully, you are WAY off base.

I have attached a graph of tornado death rates from 1920 to 2007 (the graph was prepared for "Warnings" which was written 2005-2009 and published in 2010). Yes, there was a spike in 2011 with 515 killed in that entire year. On March 18, 1925, a single tornado killed 689! Total tornado deaths for the full year 2013? 55. 2012? 68. While each death is a tragedy for each victim and his/her family and friends, these numbers are tiny and they are that small because of weather science.

The Joplin tornado, the subject of my book, "When the Sirens Were Silent," proves my point. One hundred sixty-one were killed in that tornado, the first tornado since the Weather Bureau began issuing tornado warnings in 1957 to kill more than 100. The warning system largely failed in Joplin. If the warning system fails, we immediately go back to the triple-digit tornado fatalities that were common before the warning system began.

Since you live in Ft. Worth, you undoubtedly remember the horrific crash of Delta 191 on August 2, 1985. Wind shear in the 60's, 70's, and 80's was the #1 cause of airline crashes. The last one was twenty years ago this summer (July 2, 1994, USAir 1016, Charlotte). Thousands of people are walking the streets because of the work of Ted Fujita, John McCarthy and others.

In September, 1900, 8,000+ people died in the Galveston hurricane which struck without warning. In spite of a skyrocketing coastal population in the past century, nothing remotely like that has occurred since hurricane warnings began.

As I said, we have not conquered the weather but we have certainly tamed it. Arrogant? No. Proud of the (largely unappreciated) accomplishments of weather science? Absolutely!

Mike



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/20/14 18:10 by kansas1.

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I've downloaded the book and look forward to reading it...Thanks for the assist and pointing me towards Amazon. Not sure why Apple's iBooks doesn't have it, but it is their loss...

Owen Hardy
Barrel Arbor, TN

Thank you, Owen. Please let me know what you think of the book!!

JG,
Anyone who has been paying attention knows that weather forecasting is much more accurate than it was just 10 years ago. A multi-death tornado in any year can cause a spike. Over the long haul, fatalities from tornadoes are falling because of a quantum leap in detection and forecast technology. This is despite the fact hat urban sprawl presents storms with a far larger target area. Compare the population density and spread for, say, greater Oklahoma City in 2010 with the situation in 1990 or 1970, and I think you'll see what I mean.
They may not be able to tell you how many inches of rain you're going to get today, but those radar graphics that local TV stations present during weather alerts showing hook echoes, the probable track of the storm, times of arrival and so forth have saved many lives. Railroaders have come to appreciate them.