Western Railroad Discussion > When "the big one" hits Portland, Seattle, etc

The New Yorker had a long article last week about the Cascadian fault, a long earthquake prone stretch from Mendocino CA almost to the area of Hope BC.  This very deep fault line is the other side of the fault plate which hit the Japanese nuclear plants with a 9.0 earthquake and 45 foot high tsunami in 2011.  The fault has had major shaking every 200-300 years as the Cascadian attempts to burrow under the North American plate.

The thrust of the article is that the railroads, power companies, natural gas and crude pipeline operators, etc are unprepared for anything approaching this magnitude, and lack anything more than rudimentary training for their employees.  Most buildings constructed before 1995 are not built to any earthquake standards in Oregon, those built since 1995 have basic standards. Buildings in river valleys, near beaches, or on filled in land (as in many railroad yards) are esecially at risk.  A very major danger, according to the article, is the "innundation zone" in which water walls would flood up river channels and tributaries, scouring homes, docks, highways, railroads. The 20-30 foot high wall of water would be channeled into these river valleys and potentially progress far upstream.  Looking at the map, it seems like Portland, Vancouver WA, and the rail lines up both sides of the Columbia would be soggy toast.

While the danger line extends from California to BC, the main zone of danger is from just east/south of Portland to just east of Vancouver BC. In many cases, there are no effective evacuation routes for large numbers of people

Yep, that's how we've heard it on the West Coast as well. Probably quite a bit of damage from floating containers as the wave washes out, along with a lot of other debris, as seen in small Weat Coast harbors after the Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami. One of the contributing artifacts was the debris line of trees along the Oregon Coastline, USGS and others put a date on the tree decay and came up with the timeline.

Was there a question or is this just a reminder?

USGS Report from 2008:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/l/of2007-1437l.pdf

Sign up for USGS e-mail notification of Earthquakes:
https://sslearthquake.usgs.gov/ens/



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/04/15 14:13 by TCnR.

Last time this happened up there was in 1700. These quakes are caused from one plate subducting under another like the big ones in Alaska (1964), Chile (1960) and the one in Japan in 2011. Yes the danger is very real but the timing is impossible to predict.

Adam

MtVernon_Tower Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Last time this happened up there was in 1700.
> These quakes are caused from one plate subducting
> under another like the big ones in Alaska (1964),
> Chile (1960) and the one in Japan in 2011. Yes the
> danger is very real but the timing is impossible
> to predict.
>
> Adam

That 1700 date came up in the article.  Apparently the Japanese had a huge earthquake and tsunami on their end of the plate a few years before the 1700 earthquake and tsunami in the PNW.  That has set off almarm bells among many seismologists.


The article mentioned that there's a window of opportunity in the 20-40 minutes between the first shaking and the tsunami. Ideally, that's when you want to have systems shutting down pipelines, isolating electric grids, opening fire house doors, stopping trains,  bringing elevators to ground, stopping surgery and otherwise preparing for mayhem. Very little of which has been practiced.

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This very deep fault line is the other
> side of the fault plate which hit the Japanese
> nuclear plants with a 9.0 earthquake and 45 foot
> high tsunami in 2011.


Please bear with me while I put on my Earth Sciences nerd glasses here: the Cascadia fault is not as deep as the one that runs along Japan, nor is it connected to that subducting plate. It is still a major issue because not only will a tsunami impact the entire coastline, the region best known for its mudslides will have a bunch of land slides released therefore blocking critical road and railway access. There will be no time to shut down pipe lines or electrical grids as the tsunami won't even reach Portland, but liqeufaction as well as land slides will be doing the damage.

[Plate Tectonics] Check out the video towards the lower part of web page that shows "Pacific Plate", "Farallon Plate" and "North American Plate" for a great illustration on how the Juan de Fuca plate came to be, the creation of San Andreas and Cascadia faults, and the stretching California and Nevada while pressing upward into Oregon and Washington.

...removing nerd glasses and putting on the SHTF pair: The disaster won't necessarily be during the earthquake itself, but the subsequent fallout from land slides, ruptured water and fuel lines, polluted rivers due to sediment, sewage lines, fuel storage tanks built on the geologically unstable part of town, etc. You can warn people all you want, they'll still think that FEMA or government will swoop in and make everything OK in three days. No, it won't. With main roads throughout the entire region blocked, the unprepared are going to run short on food and clean water, become desperate and take desperate measures. There will also be a sliver of the population that will take advantage of the tremendous number of vulnerable people through pillaging, robbing, sexual assaults and general destruction. The size and terrain of the PNW impact area will make Katrina look like child's play. The best thing people can do in the PNW is at minimum stock up on 6-months to 1-yr of food, water, and ammo, because your friends and family will be coming to you for help, and you'll need to fend for yourself against people who want to do harm to you.

...now with foamer glasses: It'll be interesting to see how the railroad deals with this. I foresee new construction with environmental exemptions, because the routes impacted by mud slides may be too unstable for years to come.

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> The thrust of the article is that the railroads,
> power companies, natural gas and crude pipeline
> operators, etc are unprepared for anything
> approaching this magnitude, and lack anything more
> than rudimentary training for their employees. 
> Most buildings constructed before 1995 are not
> built to any earthquake standards in Oregon, those
> built since 1995 have basic standards. Buildings
> in river valleys, near beaches, or on filled in
> land (as in many railroad yards) are esecially at
> risk.  A very major danger, according to the
> article, is the "innundation zone" in which water
> walls would flood up river channels and
> tributaries, scouring homes, docks, highways,
> railroads. The 20-30 foot high wall of water would
> be channeled into these river valleys and
> potentially progress far upstream.  Looking at
> the map, it seems like Portland, Vancouver WA, and
> the rail lines up both sides of the Columbia would
> be soggy toast.

On the other hand, the Bangor Trident sub base, is a relatively few miles from downtown Seattle. I'm sure it was on the Soviet prime target list, and it's probably on somebody's nuke-it list now. Long ago, the Feds faulted Seattle for not having an evacuation plan for the event of nuclear war. The response was that we try to evacuate the city five days a week at 5p and know that it doesn't work.

Just what kind of preparation does anyone expect for a No 9 earthquake (or Bangor being nuked...except hide under your desk)? I went to a Seattle Fire Department disaster conferance some years ago. The chief of operations very bluntly stated that in an event of that magnitude, there are not enough of them to go around; you're basically on your own. You need to figure out what you need and figure out what you need to do as the situation presents, pretty much like the size up the fire service incident commander does on arrival.

We're told around here to have an earthquake kit. Here's what we're supposed to have handy: http://www.sfgate.com/earthquakes/article/Make-your-own-earthquake-preparedness-kit-5410506.php. Unless you are going to lug all of that around all the time, The Big One just might hit when you and your kit are in different places. Depending upon where you are, even if you have the suggested kit, you might need a big fire extinguisher, an axe, irons (crowbar-wrecking bar), a life vest, rope, or ....

I wonder how prepared the folks at the New Yorker are prepared for the same nuclear attack that we are subject to out here on the left coast (what has changed there in the daily routine and preparedness of the citizenry since the famous non-nuclear attack)? The area wasn't terribly well prepared for a hurricane that could be predicted days in advance, let alone a surprise event.

That means everyone here is as prepared as the railroads.

TAW
 

There is another ticking time bomb far to the east of the Cascadia Fault....the New Madrid Fault, running along the Mississippi River.  AA

Stanford White
Carmel Valley, CA

Geeeeese. You'd need a SUV to haul all that stuff.

HMMMM, as long as we are cursing the gloom and doom-Cascade Tunnel anyone?
That basalt has been there a long time though.

Perhaps the hot springs above Skykomish becoming geysers after the
ground in and around Skykomish turns to Alluvial Jello/mush. The waste rock
excavated from the new tunnel portals sliding away leaving the track suspended
in the air just like the ground that dissappeared in Hutchinson, Kansas when the
limestone and shale layers above the salt seam gave way to create a huge sinkhole. 

I would be even more worried about the BNSF coast lines and the mouth of the Columbia shut
with landslides.and the dam created by the landslide being washed away from the water upstream.

Then there is Mt. Rainer.....................................................................................................  

Do not feel bad my west coast friends:

The FEMA folks told the State of New York If you do not solve
your own problems with flooding by dredging once and for all
in the Finger Lakes Basin we are not going to swoop in and cover
your losses period.

Force Majuer anyone?????????????????????????????????????????

We have been waiting on the New Madrid Fault on this side of the Mississppi
since 1812 and its overdue to shift and make the Mississippi run backwards
so I can sympathise.

48 hours or 4 meals away from anarchy.  As the clerk at the USGS suggested when I was learning about the Cascade volcanoes "when the wagon comes we're all going for a ride in it".   SF72.org is also a good reference.  

You wonder if the railroads have given any thought to this stuff with their hell bent push to automate everything.  How do you recover from a major disaster without people who can get things done?   We can't ignore the potential for cyber attack, power grid issues, electromagnet pulse to the disaster scenerios.  

Sphogger

sphogger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 48 hours or 4 meals away from anarchy.  As the
> clerk at the USGS suggested when I was learning
> about the Cascade volcanoes "when the wagon comes
> we're all going for a ride in it".   SF72.org is
> also a good reference.  
>
> You wonder if the railroads have given any thought
> to this stuff with their hell bent push to
> automate everything.  How do you recover from a
> major disaster without people who can get things
> done?   We can't ignore the potential for cyber
> attack, power grid issues, electromagnet pulse to
> the disaster scenerios.  
>
> Sphogger

That was one of the points in the New Yorker article.  Creating points where processes could be interrupted, blow out protectors installed, etc will go a modest way toward preventing the whole region from caving in.  Long chains of processes on often Jello like soil is asking for trouble.  That happened in the east when a First Energy Ohio feeder line shorted out when a tree branch brushed it.  One interconnection after another cascaded into darkness from Illinois to Rhode Island to Virginia ...

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/04/15 17:39 by Lackawanna484.

Quite agree that folks need to be self-sufficient for 72 hours. Also agree that the large scale breakdown of the supply chain is encouraging folks to be ready for 6 months or more. Also agree that a lot of people are simply ignoring it all.

The Cascadia Fault or a big California Earthquake, or another Volcano, would be a mess for more than 72 hours but I suspect after a week or so there would be support available. In the recent past the RR's simply routed around the areas, UPRR and BNSF have plenty of routes to Eastern Markets so their Fund value would not be too effected. The probable damage could lead to abandonment of exposed areas rather than repair partly due to cost, once again re-routing would be in order since the two RR's have generally parallel routes. The balance of Imports across the Ports would change depending on where and what happens.

How they actually handle it will be an interesting thread for TO.

sphogger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> You wonder if the railroads have given any thought
> to this stuff with their hell bent push to
> automate everything.  How do you recover from a
> major disaster without people who can get things
> done?  

Disaster? Snow maybe?

TAW

As a native of southern California I have vivid memories of the '52, '71 and '94 quakes.  Having everything in the house secured and a supply of food and water on hand became second nature.  I have since moved to the Rim Country of Arizona and even here we have started to see minor quakes from time to time. Did you notice the time between significant So Cal quakes?  Be ready.

I read the NYT article about Cascadia and have followed the science for many years.  What the article doesn't mention, and what would concern me, is the possibility of a major subduction zone earthquake waking up one or more of the sleeping volcanos associated with the zone.
 
Recent reports indicate there are 35 volcanos erupting in various places around the globe at this time.  This is a significant increase over historic norms.  There is an underwater volcano erupting west of the Cascadia Fault.  No one seems to know what, if anything, this indicates.

Food for thought.

Aunty em, Its a twister! Its a twister!!
Yes, when it hits the fan its going to fly everwhere.
Trust me I've seen Airplane!
All you can do is have a plan for you and your family. That's it!!
I plan on making a trip to the west coast next year and I have taken this into consideration.
Other than that I have no control over anything concerning mother nature.
As for the infrastructures I'm sure many have talked about it but only they know if they've planned for it.
I actually saw a program over it on the history channel which is what made me aware but it was said that water was expected to make it all the way to I-5 in some areas along the Ca coastline.
No one really knows what will happen, you just need to prepare yourself.
It used to be that you west coasties were the ones that had to worry about those damn things but since my first experience in an office building on north meridian in OKC Ok a few years ago I know different.
Nice topic, it aught to be good for some milage.

Posted from Android

Ah yes,

I forgot to add that from what I have read the rock slab that is split is hanging on
the east coast facing side of one of the Canary Islands is going to be a SPOILER.

According to geologists(the information is several years old) If this HUGE
rock slab breaks away and slides into the easten Altantic there were claims the
wall of water it creates would (and I am sure I heard this right) would create a wall
of water that would have enought force to reach 700 miles inland.

It would be worse than worse with worse to come in any scenario as they would
barely have time to evacuate any area a few miles inland.  

Makes me wonder how the Thames River would be affected and the mouth of the
Mediterranean Sea would be effected by a surge bouncing back. 
It would make Hurricane Sandies damage look like a "female breeding dog" slap with a feather duster.


  
 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/04/15 21:59 by leonz.

About emergency kits...
The official list sounds huge and bulky, but really...
Dollar store first-aid kits already have tweezers, gauze, Band-Aids, alcohol wipes and such in them. The contents vary, but they're nearly always in a compact, Palm-sized plastic box. There's usually room for extra meds. Many common over the counter ones come in blister packs that are meant to break apart, so all you need do is tear off a few of whatever and put it in.
A Leatherman or knock-off thereof takes care of the can opener, pliers and wire cutters as well as the knife. Some also include flashlights. 
Speaking of flashlights, no, you don't want to plan on using your phone. Yeah, it'll light things up sort of, but it's no substitute for a real light and it'll drain your phone battery incredibly fast. Dollar stores have a variety of flashlights. Keep one of the tiny ones on your keychain (it'll also help you use the keys in the dark.) Hardware stores have magnetic-back, 21-LED lights for under $10. Hang one on your file cabinet or other metal surface so you can turn it on right away during a power outage. Invest in a tap light or two for your bathroom and hallway. 
Be aware that feminine supplies are not officially sterile, but are packed that way and work very well as large wound dressings. Most offices have them in the ladies' room, should a huge tragedy hit while you're at work.
If you have a desk or locker, keep a couple of breakfast bars and a couple of bottles of what're in a drawer.

if you have room in your car's trunk, a five-gallon bucket with a seat top and maybe a Bucket Boss pocket strip around it will hold a whole lot of stuff in a compact, easy to carry form.

Rebecca Morgan
Jacobsburg, OH

Maybe the Japanese will undertake hydraulic fracturing to finesse these earthquakes into manageable small ones instead of holding their breath for the Big One  . . .

RailNet802, owevaaaah

OMG!!!
After reading all these posts.... I just can't take it!!!
I'm slitting my wrists... as.... I........ write...........t h  i  s...........

Well, in reading these posts, someone has given some thought to all this stuff.  Of course, human
nature works "it's not gonna happen to me" until it DOES happen to you.  

Nick Tharalson,
Marion, IA