Model Railroading > Changes in train shows and the model railroad industry in general

I attended a local train show yesterday in the upper Midwest, and afterwards, came to the sad realization that the train show scene has changed dramatically since I first started in the hobby about 25 years ago.  The specific location of this show doesn't really matter, as I have seen this trend at all of the recent train shows I've visited, so it's not the "fault" of this particular set of vendors.  My focus is on HO, but my guess is this same trend can be found in all scales. 

When I first started going to train shows, there was a good amount of product at all price points.  From the cheapest Tyco/AHM to the shiny brass, with lots of stuff in between (such as lots of Athearn, MDC/Roundhouse, Atlas, etc.)  So a model railroad hobbyist could drop $20-$50 and come home with some decent new equipment that they knew could run reliably.  At recent train shows, it seems that that middle ground of pricing has completely disappeared.  This show had probably 120+ vendors, and probably at least 20 of them had big flats of cheap cars stacked several high of probably the same Tyco junk with horn hooks they've been lugging from show to show for 15 years.  Lots of new DCC sound-equipped engines as well, but when those are $250+, it's hard to find space in the budget for many of those.

Even the supplies were sparse.  I only saw one vendor selling flextrack of any manufacturer, and only three were selling turnouts, and of those 3 vendors selling turnouts, one only had used ones, one was trying to sell at full list price, and the third had price stickers I had to wipe the dust off of to read their price.  Only a handfull had Kadee couplers for sale.  Didn't see any Woodland Scenics materials at all.  No DCC equipment for sale either, except for some MRC systems and a smattering of decoders here and there.  

I am just glad I already have a significant investment in locomotives and rolling stock, as it would be cost prohibitive to get into the hobby now, even with a higher disposable income than 25 years ago.  I blame both the manufacturers and us as model railroad hobbyists for this trend.  Yes, the quality of the mass-produced RTR products are significantly higher than ever and the detailing is beautiful so the higher costs are probably justified for the additional details and features.  I also can understand and sympathize that manufacturing costs are skyrocketing, no matter where the products are manufactured.  But if we as a hobby only produce and buy products that are geared to those that are wanting the higher-cost and highly-detailed models, we are ignoring future generations of hobbyists who aren't going to be willing to even try and get started in the model railroad hobby due to price constraints.  The more economy-level stuff (such as the Accurail/Athearn/MDC) kits may not have had all the detail or accuracy that today's RTR models have, but they also weren't priced out of reach of the entry-level model railroader who's just looking to add an inexpensive engine and a couple more cars to their 4x8 plywood empire.  This middle-price-point range of equipment that might not have all the details but will still function well and not die after one loop around the track is what is now missing from the secondary train show market, and is probably the most important demographic in regards to the future survival of the hobby.  I didn't start out being able to drop $100 on my hobby without thinking twice - I started out at the point where $20 was a significant investment. 

Another factor is that so much of the products that used to be for sale at train shows are now for the most part sold only on a pre-order basis.  I completely understand the business reasons for a manufacturer only doing pre-order manufacturing runs, but this prevents the influx of these products to the visibility and availability of the window shopper at the train show or local hobby store.  For someone just looking at what the model railroad hobby has to offer, not having product on the shelves of the local hobby store (or on the tables at a train show). 

I recently pre-ordered a $600 locomotive through my local hobby store, but only because I knew about it on the internet, and I have been lucky enough to have a good job that I can set aside enough money to pay for that engine next spring when it arrives.  But I am probably in the minority of people in this country who can set aside $600 in truly disposable income to buy something I don't really need to have to enjoy the hobby, as I already have plenty of engines and rolling stock (just ask my wife!).  How many potential model railroaders are going to see this beautiful $600 locomotive for sale and think that the hobby is only for rich people? 

What parent or young adult is going to want to plop down $750+ on decent-running model railroad equipment (track, a couple of engines, rolling stock, simple DCC system) just as an entry point cost to get into the model railroad hobby?  This industry needs to try and be more forward-looking in regards to the future of the hobby, and make sure that there is a continuing entry point into the hobby that's attractive, reliable, and not cost-prohibitive to the average teenager or young adult looking to get into model railroading.  It may not be very profitable short-term, but for the future of our hobby, it's vital. 

Scott

Note that I've purposely left out EBay in this discussion, as EBay is not the way that new model railroaders get into the hobby.

Interesting points; I think about this too.  30 years ago I could reasonably get $20 by mowing lawns and looked at buying a $40 Athearn blue box locomotive as a major investment.  And yet I was able to have a model railroad I was proud of by age 18.  And like the original poster, I'm fortunate to have the ability to buy the occasional $250 DCC-and-sound equipped locomotive.  I sure don't have the time that I used to to build a lot of kids, and I appreciate the features and detail of the more-expensive modern models.  But I do also wonder about how "our kids" will get into the hobby, when there are far fewer local hobby shops and far fewer lower-budget choices.

The LHS' that remain in my area are charging retail for most locomotives (as expected) and so those locomotives sit on the shelves for a long time.  The inventory doesn't turn, little there piques my interest (in locomotives, specifically), and so the inventory continues not to turn.  A bad cycle.  I do buy as many cars, supplies, track, etc as I can through my LHS to contribute.

-Alex

Scott, I must say I did not find a single word I disagreed with.

Good points. IMO, it makes it harder on the dealers at the shows too, as folks that walk in the door only have so much to spend and it doesn't go as far as it used to.  Of course, discounted items via the internet have a major impact. I note that it's seems to be more difficult to sell items on Ebay too. Ok, part of that is the increased Ebay fees but IMO, there is more to the picture there too. Ebay seems to be more of a buyer's market these day with model trains. Of course, that experience varies by items but most Ebay sellers that I know say that they either dropped Ebay because it's not worth it. or are stuck with diminished returns.

Victor A. Baird
http://www.erstwhilepublications.com



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/05/15 11:13 by wabash2800.

Also have to agree with that on the left coast, although I haven't been able to attend the Seattle or Portland less formal events.

The exception was an interesting sale at Medford a few years ago where a bunch of fairly new items in boxes were being sold by a divorce Lawyer. He didn't haggle, just pay what's on the box or move on so that he could get back to the Golf course. Sorry about that but thanks.

I hate to admit it, but I think the hobby in general is stating to wane.  Not many young kids coming into the hobby to sustain it in my opinion.   Todays generation has different interests and I don't believe model trains is among them.  Anyone else have anything to add here??

I've been reading that since about 1970.

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>  Anyone else have anything to add
> here??

Kids today are interested in high tech stuff. We live in a "app" world today. I've noticed when going to the supermarket that you won't see one kid with an older phone i.e. flip phone, but I've noticed some of the older folks with those outdated phones. What I'm getting to is virtual reality in our hobby. As technology is moving at such a rapid pace you can have your own layout at a reasonable price and all you'll need is your phone and/or a very large monitor if they haven't come up with this already. It's much cheaper than one invests in building a layout and you can get instant gratification which the younger generation is looking for today. The sights and sounds of driving a locomotive is becoming more of reality with todays technology. How many kids do you know of that are willing to spend years in building  a layout?

 

One of these days I'm going to build an HO layout for myself and my children - for as little cost as possible.  I'm going to use my 30-year old Athearn/MDC etc. cars and DC locos as a start, over time purchasing similar equipment at a discount to build up the fleet.  No way I can ever justify a $35 freight car.  I'll switch to DCC if I get some windfall.  We'll be happy just to run semi-prototypical operations with FRS radios and a dispatcher's desk located under the basement stairs.

Kids will be interested in what their parents teach them, is my experience.  Don't give them phones or computer games but let them fill their time with things like model building, chess, good books and playing outside.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/05/15 13:18 by RRTom.

I too agree with everything you wrote.

There have been efforts to fill the mid-range void. Atlas tried to partially fill the void with the Trainman line. As I understand it, the Trainman iitems were to be produced so that there was a fairly constant supply for the hobby store shelves. However I do not believe Atlas ever attained that goal for whatever reason. Accurail contiunes to produce kits. I also believe that Bowser still offers kits. And, if I am not mistaken the new company  with former Athearn employees, Scale Trains(?) is going to offer kits--I do not know the price range though.

Even with these efforts, I agree there needs to be more for the mid-range market. Return of the blue box would be nice, however it may be impossible to offer that without starting from scratch.

To be honest, it is almost to the point of being depressing when visiting the LHS, especially when the visits are between limited-run releases. The shelves can get on the bare side as all the major items are produced on the limited-run basis and do not even see a second on the shelf. That does make for a perfect storm of limiting the ability for newbies to get into the hobby.

Profits have always driven businesses, nothing wrong with that at all, however the speed at which the companies now want their profits is what is causing the limited-run marketing strategy.

In the first years of Proto 2000 by Life-Like, all models were produced as limited-run. However when the E8's were produced, I remember being able to pick those up for $35 each from National Hobby Supply in Marietta. There were literally stacks 4 feet high of the various roadnames. This line, to my knowledge, was the first models in HO produced under the limited-run philosohy, on a broadmarket scale. They did not do so well in limited production in the early, hence the $35 E8"s. I must have purchased 20 of those locos which I sold, unopened years later on ebay.  As far as freight cars, NHS had the Walther's kits of the auto racks, airslides, and waffle side boxcars for $1.99 each. Again, stacks multi feet high.

However, it did not take too many years for limited-run to truly become limited-run. The common denominator in the reduction was purchases of companies by other companies, Athearn by Horizon, Proto by Walthers. These purchases produced the need for profits from the acqusitions to come in quicker for the acquiring company. Truly limiting production and increasing the price of each unit is the route most have picked. Fewer models means less shipping cost and quicker production in the factory.

It has not been all bad though. The large number of accurately detailed and painted models that have appeared on the market over the last 20 years, 1995-2015 is amazing, and that includes 7 years of a lack luster economy. The prior 20 years, 1975-1995, did not have nearly as many new products introduced. I remember the excitement when Athearn released the scale width hood with the SD40-2 and proceeded with the GP38-2, 40-2, 50, & 60. Those were the most accurate, budget priced locomotives introduced for a number of years. There were other models released such as the GSB SD40-2, the Rivirossi C420, Atlas Yellow box diesels with the god-awful fuel tanks but great runners. All would be great mid-market locos for today. I remember the yellow box diesels could be purchased for $25 and the Athearn's could be found for prices in the teens. However the prices, I imagine would be in the $75 to $100 range today, much as the Athearn RTR  prices at today with better details.

Jay

 

Part of the differences we are seeing is that vending is moving away from brick & mortor shops, and Train Shows and moving online.  ExactRail is strictly online now, and others seem to be moving that way, such as Tangent, which sells directly through their website similarly as ER, but also sells through vendors at a negligible discount.  Or at least your better sources are some online vendors for Athearn Genesis, Intermountain etc.  So yes there is a change in the market so that takes some getting used to.

At least in the area's that I've lived in the past 5-10 years, such as central New York state or northern Virginia, Baltimore greater area, there has been ALOT of kits (Athearn blue box, Accurail, Proto 2000, Intermountain, Walthers redbox, MDC etc.) available for great prices so if you wanted or needed to pick up trains at "yesterdays" prices, you could buy quite a lot of it.  Sure, there is tons of "trainset" level stuff - especially used, for a few bucks each too - thats stuff seems to get carried from show to show adnauseum and boxes and boxes of it too.  Well, thats what I'm seeing from this area anyway. Basically you can pick from the upper end and pay higher prices, or you can also get lots of kit/olderstuff for low cost too, so really something for everyone.  Seem to be one of the best times to be in the hobby to me.

Cheers, Jim Fitch

Doing my part to encourage a whole neighborhood of young kids! My sons invite all their friends over to run trains...Cub Scouts, neighborhood kids and friends from school. I have some old smart phones that I loaded EngineDriver (or WiThrottle) and the kids pick it up in a couple minutes and are running trains. The small layout once had 4 trains running on the two loops!

Ryan Wilkerson
Fair Oaks, CA

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Kids today can only get so much joy out of watching a train go "in a circle" for so long. I know mine after about 3 laps around the club got really bored and wanted to start switching regardless of the size of the power and switches which caused issues when it blocked the main line from running.

I love how everyone says this hobby isn't getting any cheaper... Is any hobby getting cheaper? Is there any product that is getting cheaper? The price of everything this is going up.

You can also thank the vocal rivet counters for prices going up, as stated previously most of us were fine with blue box equipment, with the advent of the internet where research can be found endless people dont want to have to modify their equipment to get what they want in perfection. That's what happens when the "consumer is always right" mentality keeps hounding the point of making it better.

I agree that the prices for equipment is a little out of range for some, but the hobby isn't also targeting the young kids it used to.

That's my opinion though,
Chris

Ryan,

That's the ticket. Keep it up as that is definitely a great way to start the ember and stoke the flames.

Jay

RyanWilkerson Wrote:
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> Doing my part to encourage a whole neighborhood of
> young kids! My sons invite all their friends over
> to run trains...Cub Scouts, neighborhood kids and
> friends from school. I have some old smart phones
> that I loaded EngineDriver (or WiThrottle) and the
> kids pick it up in a couple minutes and are
> running trains. The small layout once had 4 trains
> running on the two loops!

I will disagree. I've been going to train shows since the early 1990's, and at least here in the Pacific Northwest they are as good as they have always been. I still find great deals at everything but those old GATS shows, that are no more (thankfully). The sale of new items has always been a minority play at train shows, as everyone there is looking for deals. So train shows have always been about used and old NIB stuff. I recently helped a older friend acquire a collection of cars to haul behind his brass steam locomotive. We had no problem buying quality cars between $3 and $10 each, and then upgrading them with Kadee Couplers and Metal Wheels where needed. After standards checking them and adding weight, they ran flawlessly. At the last train show, I bought a bunch of used Atlas Code 83 #6 turnouts that were in  great shape for $5 each. The attached pic shows the deals I got at the train show last March. There is a train show this Sunday at the Spokane County Fairgrounds in Eastern Washington.

Ted Curphey
Ontario, OR

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My thoughts:

Yes the hobby of model railroading is changing. The world is changing and the hobby is following. Most hobbies are going through similar changes.

The hobby is not dying. Maybe train shows in certain areas are not what they used to be but things like RPM meets are growing.

RTR is not killing craftsmanship. RTR is freeing the craftsmen from having to build every freight car and locomotive in their roster and giving them time to work in other areas they enjoy.

We don't need to get kids into the hobby. We don't need to get 20 year olds into the hobby. The kids and 20 year olds have always been into other stuff, always will be. It's the 30 and 40 year olds who discover the hobby and actively persue it. How many articles have you read where it says "modeller A got his interest in trains with a trainset as a kid. He left the hobby in his teens to chase girls and cars and got back into it when his kids were 10 or 15".

We don't need to actively recruit people to the hobby of model railroading, we simply need to make information available to those who look for it. A hobby is something people do for enjoyment, if somebody has no interest in model trains they will ignore any form of recruitment anyway. If someone is interested in model trains they will persue the hobby in a way they enjoy.

Just because somebody enjoys the hobby in a different way than you it does not mean their way is wrong.

Just my thoughts.

Andrew C

There is a guy on youtube known as ic82 (he is in England). He has kids and adults writing him and telling him how he got them into the hobby. Or back into it. These letters are from around the globe too. His subscription list is over 33,000. And growing. That is a huge number for a hobby page. SO much so, that Hornby took notice and has started working with him. He found they key to communicate. Entertaining but informative good videos seams to be it. Need more of that there.

I'm not so sure it's out of reach...A new Athearn trainset with Bachmann EZ track (not the flimsy stuff I received as a kid) and a powerpack for 150.00 at MB Klein.  Seems like Bachmann sets were $75-100 around 30 years ago.  Surprisingly you get Athearn quality for about that much today.

http://www.athearn.com/newsletter/062615/03_RTR_NdeM_Iron_Horse_062615.pdf

 

Most of the stuff I see at train shows in Colorado is priced way over what I can buy the same item for at Caboose Hobbies. However, there are always bargains to be found. Finding the bargain is what makes train shows fun

Posted from iPhone

The timonium show in Maryland is good for bargins