Model Railroading > Is it just me or is HO production slated to be lower than 2016?

I was looking at 2017's announced releases and it seems that collectively the HO market had a very high output in 2016, with a far lower output in 2017.  Is it just me or is anyone else noticing that?  Is the output a roller coaster of output with some years being much higher than others?  I'm still learning....so tell me if I'm off base.

-James Wright Omaha, NE

2016 was a very good year for high quality models. Not sure what the ingrediants that made that happen was all about, sometimes it's the last gasp and sometimes it's the start of a roll. I guess we can hang in there and find out.

Dont forget that alot of what was announced in 2016 is delayed (every Atlas product, every intermountain product, some scaletrains, some walthers etc..) and will show up in 2017. This year will yield alot more for some modelers than others. 

-Ryan N.

We're only 15 days into the new year, and you're concerned there are less model train announcements compared to the 366 days we observed last year?  Sorry, I don't see the logic here...

Mr. MRL

dal3294 Wrote:
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>Dont forget that alot of what was announced in 2016 is delayed (every Atlas product, every intermountain product, some scaletrains, some walthers etc..) and will show up in >2017. This year will yield alot more for some modelers than others.  
>
>-Ryan N.

Yes, I factored those into my observation.

MrMRL Wrote:
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> We're only 15 days into the new year, and you're
> concerned there are less model train announcements
> compared to the 366 days we observed last year?
>  Sorry, I don't see the logic here...
>
> Mr. MRL

Since many companies have announcements for items being produced until fall, its easy to look ahead with no crystal ball required.  I can also look at the first several months of last year compared to what will be coming the first several months of this year, I see a marked decrease that can't be overcome with increased last quarter production.  Now I haven't dove head first into everything produced but from major manufactuers locomotives in general, I think I see a decrease...but I could be wrong and thus asked for other's input.  That's the logic here.  Now if there were only companies that announced and released immediately in the industry, my question and observation would be pointless. 



Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 01/15/17 12:25 by JLW2K.

I don't see what you are talking about. For example, go to Scaletrains and look at their delivery schedule which goes through August. They still have 11 months left to announce 2017 & 2018 products. Intermountain has the GP10s and 50' PS-1 boxcars announced in 2015 & 2016 for delivery 2017 which have the rest of this year to show up. Athearn has had a monthly announcement last year for reservations for 2017 production. Tangent and Exactrail are generally close lipped until right before release. Bowser has reruns of previous models as well as new models on the way.

So hang on to your wallet for 2017 there are plenty of new models showing up.

fbe Wrote:
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> I don't see what you are talking about. For
> example, go to Scaletrains and look at their
> delivery schedule which goes through August. They
> still have 11 months left to announce 2017 & 2018
> products. Intermountain has the GP10s and 50' PS-1
> boxcars announced in 2015 & 2016 for delivery 2017
> which have the rest of this year to show up.
> Athearn has had a monthly announcement last year
> for reservations for 2017 production. Tangent and
> Exactrail are generally close lipped until right
> before release. Bowser has reruns of previous
> models as well as new models on the way.
>
> So hang on to your wallet for 2017 there are
> plenty of new models showing up.

Yes still plenty, just last year seemed to be really high I guess.  Time will tell.

Tangent and Moloco will be dominating the market! Beware.
Toss out the crap and collect the real deal.

There's a cause and effect in this hobby just like every other market.  Perhaps the previous mention of shipping delays has caused manufacturers to back off on new product announcements.  The fact that we had an election year and administration coming into office may have hobby manufacturers backing off on production as well.  I don't mean to be political, but just like every other industry, political policy and speculation play a factor in output.  The fact that we have new manufacturers in the market is a great sign, despite each maybe not putting out as many models.  Overall,  I'm really excited to see what 2017 has to offer!

-Sean

 

Every year there's something that can potentially break my bank.  For example, just the GP40P-2 deliveries and the Athearn SDP40F announcement will be fine by me.  I'm sure the other manufacturers will do me in...

Bring it on!

It seems to go in cycles.   I too feel a slowdown for 2017, at least in reference to HO locomotives, which usually garner the most hype and excitement.   The last two Athearn announcements seemed a bit lacking.   Same with Walthers, with them actually skipping November altogether.   Atlas and Kato also seem ho-hum for the moment.   2016 had a lot of new stuff, so I wouldn't mind a financial break (for myself).    

This got me thinking back to my early years in the hobby during the 80's.   Wasn't Athearn putting out all-new models every few months?   Interesting to compare the "then vs. now."    

Jason Eminian
Smith Brothers Hobby Center

It's been like that fior several years. Where have you been? 

Atlas, Athearn, Exactrail, IM, and other big companies have not put out ALL NEW models in the frequency they did 5 or 10 years ago. 

I think we have to look differently at the market than we have in the past. For some US manufacturers who have to subcontract orders to
China announcements nowadays are no more than invitations for buyers to place advanced orders to keep back orders high and the company bean counters happy. When in this position US manufacturers are subject to the constraints put on them by Chinese Factory Owners. However US manufacturers know that as buyers we will wait for our models to arrive and therefore have some flexibility when commiting orders to production so that they can control cash inflow and outflow and therefore remain cash positive. That is certainly the business model for some of the established suppliers to the UK market and some in the US. There are exceptions to the above. Scale Trains seem to want to put the buyer ahead of the accountants as do Tangent, Exactrail and Bowser. Rapido are different as they are a Canadian Manufacturer who owns its Chinese factories and seem to only delay its orders due to quality issues. I think 2017 and 2018 are possibly going to be the last boom years in US model
railroading for a while. There is going to be an economic backlash against the protectionist Trump policies and I believe China will stand up to the US and actually come out the other side as the winner. They will simply manoeuvre around the emotional bluster that Trump seems to use to make policy on the fly via Twitter. Cheers Chris

Posted from iPhone

obsessedfoamer Wrote:
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> Tangent and Moloco will be dominating the market!
> Beware.
> Toss out the crap and collect the real deal.

Great approach IF (and only IF) they happen to produce the equipment you need.  I wish Moloco would produce some UP cars, or venture into the realm of 40 footers.  Tangent is great stuff and tries to serve "transition" modelers as well as "modern" guys, but his releases aren't going to completely populate my freight car fleet at this rate.  2016 WAS a good year, things came together to get some neat new stuff available.  Don't count out 2017 just yet.  As stated, there are several manufacturers who don't announce until almost ready to ship.  ExactRail hasn't done much new lately, but they still may have a surprise or two.  We will continue to see neat models, but they will continue to be in limited runs (note the rapid sell out of the cryo tank cars).  

Gary B.
Waverly, NE

You are exactly correct.  These dealers make all kind of promises knowing full well that the product will be delayed for one or two years.  Just look a Atlas "O" F units almost 18 months behind schedule.  They cant get out what was promised a year ago.

Oh, the humanity.

aehouse Wrote:
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> Oh, the humanity.

I live by the following axioms about announcements AND products....:

1. When they arrive, they will be here.
2. Until they do arrive they are not here.
3. I already have more stuff here than I can ever use.
4. Until they do arrive I will open boxes that are already here.
5. I truly do nort know all of what IS here.
6. Finding out what really IS here is fun. "Oh look!...I did not know I had one of THOSE!!!!" ( re-discovering the 2 Hobbytown plastic RS3 dummies in a tote...) 
7. In the meantime I have family I love, grandkids I love, adult children I love, a great hobby I love, a woman I love, a successful business I love, a new layout I am building that I will love, I can pay my employees every week and I have hundreds and hundreds of little HO items stored here I do not even know about, save for the fact that I must have loved them when I bought them - so - life is good :)

Bob

Well said...........Cheers. Fergie

Well put there Navarch !!!  I keep finding stuff I bought years ago !! Amazing what the bunker can hide !! And in two weeks I will be at the Springfield Mass. show buying even more stuff I don't really need but will get used rather than going in the bunker . -- ---  Ken 

We are now into the 2nd quarter of 2017 and so far in HO ...

ExactRail has one release; last year it looks like E-R had a total of 6 releases, so a slower start for them so far.  Tangent appears to have had 8 releases in 2016 and 3 as of mid-April (40' Mini Hy-cube box car, X58 PRR box car and GATC 8k tank car) so they seem to be cranking along nicely.  Both of the afor mentioned ship models at announcement.  Of course Atlas, Athearn and Intermountain are "anounce-and-wait" companies, often taking a year before shipping. There are a number of models in the pipe for them which, even with delays, we should see quite a few models.  We've also had the nice Moloco ATSF box cars, Wheels of Time Cotton Belt flat cars.  Trainworx is shipping HO trailers this year as well.

The way I see it, a slower year isn't a bad thing for me; even with modestly higher budget than past years, I still can't keep up with all the nice products being produced - especially at $45 - $53 per freight car.

Cheers, Jim Fitch