Western Railroad Discussion > UP week 15 carloadings

Haven't paid much attention to the UP carload reports this year but did this one. Here is the good and bad in the week 15 report verses same week in 2018:

Petroleum products up 25%
Grain up 23%
Grain mill products up 15%
Stone/clay/glass up 9%
Coal up 4%
Food/kindred products up 4%
Motor vehicles/parts up 2%

Stone/gravel/sand down 30%
Nonmetalic minerals down 12%
Lumber/wood products down 3%
Chemicals down 1%

Intermodal containers and trailers both down 2%

Combined total down 1% for the year. Hard to know how much the flooding in Nebraska, Iowa,ect has affected the total.

Allen

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/17/19 16:11 by bradleymckay.

Maybe its time to start shorting Vulcan Materials stock (VMC) and Martin Marietta Materials (MLM).  If you look at a max chart these companies fall hard at the start of a major financial crisis and they sit at record highs.  These also happen to be some of the largest shippers of rock and gravel via railroad.

New loans for home mortgages just hit a 9-year high, so the "lag factor" still has to clear out, then we'll see more lumber loadings and other goods associated with construction.

For me, the surprising change was coal, up 4%.

Thanks Allen for posting this report, I really appreciate it.

SouthWest RailCams
CA, NM, CO, TX, AZ
https://SouthWestRailCams.com

HogheadMike Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Maybe its time to start shorting Vulcan Materials
> stock (VMC) and Martin Marietta Materials (MLM).
>  If you look at a max chart these companies fall
> hard at the start of a major financial crisis and
> they sit at record highs.  These also happen to
> be some of the largest shippers of rock and gravel
> via railroad.

The crushed stone/gravel/sand category is down 30% mostly due to Permian Basin oil drillers/ producers switching to using more west Texas sand in the fracking process in order to keep costs in check.


Allen

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/18/19 10:01 by bradleymckay.

coach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> New loans for home mortgages just hit a 9-year
> high, so the "lag factor" still has to clear out,
> then we'll see more lumber loadings and other
> goods associated with construction.
>
> For me, the surprising change was coal, up 4%.

Increase is likely due to UP moving coal to satisfy long term export contracts and short term domestic contracts.

Allen

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/18/19 14:57 by bradleymckay.