Western Railroad Discussion > So, has PSR really effected UP's carload shipments?

I've been asked this numerous times.  Well, it's not really clear cut for non-intermodal shipments (if I have time I'll get into intermodal shipments later).

Here are 7 product groups, selected at random, showing carloads,  in thousands, for week 31, for the years 2016 to current.  Coal carloads are not included...it needs it own TO post, plus I don't know how many carloads of coal traffic UP has gained or lost (mostly lost) to BNSF since 2016.  There have been prior threads in TO about this.  I'll include comments along the way.  This is comparing week 31 totals, year to year:

                      2016                                       2017                                   2018                                     2019             Comments

Grain            7,429                                      6,473                                  6,909                                    7,159             (domestic shipments strong)

Chemicals   16,529                                    18,288                                18,964                                  17,397            (shipments have dipped the last few weeks after hitting 19,000)

Lumber          2,460                                      2,238                                  2,440                                    2,288            (includes "wood products")

Petroleum      3,954                                      3,235                                  3,800                                    5,316            (5,316 is nearing the mid-2014 weekly totals - more oil trains)

Metals            2,044                                      2,334                                  2,960                                    2,460            (lower pipe shipments so far in 2019 vs. 2018)  

Vehicles         8,532                                      8,055                                  9,301                                    8,755            (trucks, automobiles and parts)

Crushed         8,175                                     10,825                                10,490                                  10,077           (surprising strength this year)
stone/sand/                                                                                                                                                                 
gravel     



Allen    

 



Edited 9 time(s). Last edit at 08/06/19 12:51 by bradleymckay.

Thanks for taking the effort to post this info.  I suspect that auto shipments and grain more closely track national sales figures and export traffic than business lost to BNSF or KCS, etc.

The tariff mess with China has resulted in a major hole for grain exports, for example.

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for taking the effort to post this info. 
> I suspect that auto shipments and grain more
> closely track national sales figures and export
> traffic than business lost to BNSF or KCS, etc.
>
> The tariff mess with China has resulted in a major
> hole for grain exports, for example.

August is probably not the best month to check carload averages.  Historically September and October show higher levels of freight traffic on the rails...

Allen

bradleymckay Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I've been asked this numerous times.  Well, it's
> not really clear cut for non-intermodal shipments
> (if I have time I'll get into intermodal shipments
> later).
>
> Here are 7 product groups, selected at random,
> showing carloads,  in thousands, for week 31, for
> the years 2016 to current.  Coal carloads are not
> included...it needs it own TO post, plus I don't
> know how many carloads of coal traffic UP has
> gained or lost (mostly lost) to BNSF since 2016. 
> There have been prior threads in TO about this. 
> I'll include comments along the way.  This is
> comparing week 31 totals, year to year:
>
>                       2016       
>                              
>  2017                             
>      2018                         
>            2019             Comments
>
> Grain            7,429             
>                         6,473     
>                             6,909 
>                                  
> 7,159             (domestic shipments
> strong)
>
> Chemicals   16,529                   
>                 18,288             
>                   18,964           
>                       17,397       
>     (shipments have dipped the last few weeks
> after hitting 19,000)
>
> Lumber          2,460               
>                       2,238       
>                           2,440   
>                                
> 2,288            (includes "wood products")
>
> Petroleum      3,954                 
>                     3,235         
>                         3,800     
>                              
> 5,316            (5,316 is nearing the
> mid-2014 weekly totals - more oil trains)
>
> Metals            2,044             
>                         2,334     
>                             2,960 
>                                  
> 2,460            (lower pipe shipments so
> far in 2019 vs. 2018)  
>
> Vehicles         8,532               
>                       8,055       
>                           9,301   
>                                
> 8,755            (trucks, automobiles and
> parts)
>
> Crushed         8,175               
>                      10,825       
>                         10,490     
>                             10,077 
>          (surprising strength this year)
> stone/sand/                         
>                                  
>                                  
>                                  
>                                
>  
> gravel     
>
>
>
> Allen    
>
>  
 Thanks for posting these. I'd suspect the stone/gravel figures might be influenced by the continuing battle against the flooding.

I read a piece in the business press about scrap metal dealers being upset with changes from PSR. The article said a number of smaller shippers have been cut off and others had trouble getting cars to load when needed. The PSR designation is very misleading and does not seem good for shippers. It is interesting to read about railroads from the shipper's view rather than the railroad's view. They were concerned it was hurting their business and didn't think it would improve. I am sorry I don't remember the exact source so I can't provide a link so people can check the full article. You would have to think some of the decline in business is the railroads fault.

Bruce Stikkers
St. Joseph, IL

BruceStikkers Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I read a piece in the business press about scrap
> metal dealers being upset with changes from PSR.
> The article said a number of smaller shippers have
> been cut off and others had trouble getting cars
> to load when needed. The PSR designation is very
> misleading and does not seem good for shippers. It
> is interesting to read about railroads from the
> shipper's view rather than the railroad's view.
> They were concerned it was hurting their business
> and didn't think it would improve. I am sorry I
> don't remember the exact source so I can't provide
> a link so people can check the full article. You
> would have to think some of the decline in
> business is the railroads fault.
>
> Bruce Stikkers
> St. Joseph, IL

For the year 2018 UP hauled 36,313 carloads of iron and steel scrap, a 2% gain over 2017.   Waste and non-ferrous scrap was 38,915 carloads an 8% decline from 2017, so UP's movement of waste and non-ferrous scrap declined sharply (from 2017).   We don't know why and PSR cannot be blamed as the decline was most of the year...

Allen

rantoul Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> UP PSR is just being implemented.  Shippers
> moving hundreds of cars per year or more will need
> time to arrange an alternate business response,
> and if they can't expect to see a rise in STB
> filed complaints.

I get what you're saying but I wouldn't have used the word "just" as implimention of PSR has been going on for more than 6 months now. Possibily the biggest complaint small shippers would have would be with demurrage fees.

Allen

Thank you for the informative post.Bill Webb.