Western Railroad Discussion > Pineapple Express Rain/Snow headed to California

Caught weatherman Al Roker (corrected name-!) on Today Show 21 October 2021 showing the 'Pineapple Express' headed towards the Pacific Northwest and California with predeictions of rain and snow (two feet around Donner-!).

Here's what Pineapple Express can produce;   Northern California gets about 80 percent of annual rainfall from Pineapple Express events.

Normal rainfall amounts are as follows:

San Francisco- 21.5 inches
Monterey Bay- 20.35 inches
San Luis Obispo County- 24.26 inches
Los Angeles County- 15.14 inches  

We owe our climate to a semi-high pressure area located over the eastern Pacific Ocean, which deflects storms northwestward, along with the precipitation. During the winter months, this high breaks down allowing the jet stream to steer mid-latitude weather systems along with the track of the prevailing westerly's.

During the winter months, the rains can be very heavy. The weather pattern most likely to trigger heavy rainfall events is the "Pineapple Express".

Hope this helps refill California resources.  Any local weather predictions on snowfall up Donner Pass way-?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/21/21 08:53 by cozephyr.

• 2-3ft of sierra cement, possibly more on Sunday night's storm
• snow levels start high (8500ft+) and then drop Monday morning
• this one is a doozy - all the climatological models are considering this a major outlier; very rare storm for october

Read the Reno forecast discussion here: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=REV&issuedby=REV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Are you sure you heard this report from Willard Scott? I believe he passed away a month ago.

1019X Wrote:
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> Are you sure you heard this report from Willard
> Scott? I believe he passed away a month ago.

Correct. According to listed information, Mr. Scott passed away September 4, 2021, at the age of 87.

Cell phone jumping with "Red Alerts" for flash flooding and debris flow Thursday night and into Friday in the Dixie Fire burn area. I'm not too concerned as my hillside is very rocky and the fire burned down to Highway 89 but not thoroughly. However, going north and south from the greater Crescent Mills area on Highway 89 (and Highway 70) there are plenty of completely burned areas where the soil looks like dust, soon to be fluid. Could cause travel and supply chain issues.

TJY

We are expecting 6 inches of rain by the end of Monday here in the Burney area. 

The Reno NOAA forecaster says this an exceptional anomaly for October. There is nothing in the records from 1979 - 2009 that match the predicted QPF for this storm.. That said this is a forecast 4 days out and things can change. Typically October in Central California is dry or a weak storm or 2 will blow through. Once in a while we have a strong storm (2000, 2004).

Going back to the records books in 1962 Sacramento had nearly 7 inches of rain in October which is extraordinary.. 

The major Washout concerns would be the Canyon Sub from Rock Creek to Keddie and the BNSF from  Keddie to Greenville.  

Some of you may recall the Washout in the Canyon during 2019 after the Camp Fire (Paradise). https://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?1,4742035,4742377#msg-4742377.

These fire(s) burned through a much longer stretch of railroad this time. Hopefully UP and BNSF were installing new Culverts along the ROW to divert the potential water and debris flows or else we could see some washouts. 

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/21/21 10:12 by donner_dude1.

the new California Railfan timetable has "flood water risk" zones noted on many line segments

I predicted this to be a wet winter a month ago . We have more acorns this year than the last 5 combined . The horses are growing their coat earlier too. Follow the science !

Unusually strong, for October, Polar Jet Stream across the entire Pacific. This creates a strong water vapor transfer West to East. The strong Polar Jet Stream has also weakened the sub tropical High Pressure Center that is usually anchored Northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which would in turn weaken the Trade Winds.

Allen

Posted from Android

Its been a horrible fire season.

Good to see it end

Posted from Android

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
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> Its been a horrible fire season.
>
> Good to see it end
>
> Posted from Android

Not over yet, at least not in Southern California. Santa Ana wind season is almost here when we have had some of the worst fires.

Weather maps are showing the brunt of this hitting the extreme northwestern corner of CONUS and western Canada. Bay Area/cental Cal will probably receive a days worth of rain barely exceeding an inch, what we would call the "walnut rain"; first storm of the season, not very substantial, just enough to knock the walnuts off the trees. But over-hyping the first storm is tradition in the newsroom. Post New Years is when the news making climate events usually take place in the West.

Desmond Praetzel
"4451 Puff"



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/21/21 14:07 by 4451Puff.

4451Puff Wrote:
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> Weather maps are showing the brunt of this hitting
> the extreme northwestern corner of CONUS and
> western Canada. Bay Area/cental Cal will probably
> receive a days worth of rain barely exceeding an
> inch, what we would call the "walnut rain"; first
> storm of the season, not very substantial, just
> enough to knock the walnuts off the trees. But
> over-hyping the first storm is tradition in the
> newsroom. Post New Years is when the news making
> climate events usually take place in the West.
>
> Desmond Praetzel
> "4451 Puff"

The computer weather models continue to be consistent, showing a moderate intensity AR (Atmospheric River) hitting Northern and Central CA. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will strengthen the next several days and expand southward, pushing the jet stream southward.

The only inconsistency in the computer models is the timing of the heaviest rains and how fast the entire system moves through. Faster = less rain, slower = more rain.

Allen

Posted from Android

When are they going to fire up the rotaries for Donner?






Diving for cover.

howeld Wrote:
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> When are they going to fire up the rotaries for
> Donner?

Maybe just in time for Christmas??

Allen

Posted from Android

One of the hallmarks of La Nina is a very strong looking weather front and forecast but it doesn't really work out. The Dunsmuir forecast was up to 3 inches for later today, now the forecast is for less than 2 inches, 1.5 already fallen at this hour.

The other characteristic I remember from days gone by is an early rain, then clear sunny skies at the Holiday's, but rain again in the spring. It's early and it's still warm, usually we see it start to rain in November, with fall colors, then the leaf drop and then snow on Thanksgiving weekend. But the whole concern is it's changing.

Have to wait and see, also be prepared.

The current La Nina isn't very strong, and will likely be gone by February, if not sooner. Just like the strength of an El Nino, the strength of a La Nina can vary, even month to month.

As I've said before the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) plus the strength of the Polar and Subtropical Jet streams (and how they interact) play a large part in whether CA gets rain or not. Medium range computer models do a pretty good job of "predicting" the weather up to 7-10 days out. But predicting the amount of rain that falls is more of a crapshoot, especially during an Atmospheric River event.

Allen
TCnR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One of the hallmarks of La Nina is a very strong
> looking weather front and forecast but it doesn't
> really work out. The Dunsmuir forecast was up to 3
> inches for later today, now the forecast is for
> less than 2 inches, 1.5 already fallen at this
> hour.
>
> The other characteristic I remember from days gone
> by is an early rain, then clear sunny skies at the
> Holiday's, but rain again in the spring. It's
> early and it's still warm, usually we see it start
> to rain in November, with fall colors, then the
> leaf drop and then snow on Thanksgiving weekend.
> But the whole concern is it's changing.
>
> Have to wait and see, also be prepared.

Posted from Android

Wet and warm rain to the Sierras, like the pineapple Express name applies,  moisture from the Hawaian Islands instead of from Alaska. Snow will be on the highest peaks of the Sierras

Where is the. Norden Weatherman when we need him?