Eastern Railroad Discussion > Some Thoughts on the CSX River Sub future....

Here are some of my thoughts on the CSX River Subs future...

(For those who don't know, the River Sub runs along the Hudson from Selkirk, NY to North Bergen, NJ)

It has recently been confirmed that the Cumberland Hump has been closed. This seems to put Selkirk in a very good place, with it being the only major hump yard in the northeastern United States for CSX. Some even believe Cumberland will be closed for good, meaning traffic would go to Selkirk instead. This would lead to over 10 new manifest trains each day. Also, when the Baltimore Howard Street Tunnel is completed (work started 2016 I believe) Double Stacks will be able to travel though that area. This would lead to more Port Of Baltimore traffic. Also, the stack trains that currently go via Sand Patch may get rerouted this way. In my opinion, more efficient/costs less to run ONE route to Chicago instead of two. Also, again in my opinion, more efficient to run trains over the flat, better-maintained Water-Level Route via Selkirk. So, I believe that it is a good possibility that intermodals on Sand Patch could be rerouted via SK. This would mean the River Sub could have 45 trains daily on a good day....

In addition to this, the new Intermodal terminal expansion in NJ is promising and will likely bring more stack trains via the River Sub.

I also received word that WM may be re-opening a trash loading sight in Eport. This is where Q706/707 loaded in years past. This was a CSAO train, but who knows, maybe they'll send one to Selkirk this time!

I also stand by my opinion that Q711/Q710 will once again run the River one day. As I've stated before, NS used to have the traffic before K280/281 (711/710s old symbols). NS could very well lose the traffic again.

Finally, it is important to note other changes around CSX. The NE region has not been greatly impacted by EHH's changes. Not saying that it won't be affected at some point, but for now not much has changed. But lets take a look on what is happening in other regions of CSX. First, the Hump Yards. I believe we on the River Sub are safe from this as Selkirk is a vital yard and very important for CSXs operation. Secondly, EHH is playing around with symbols and is also combining trains. For example, K533 has been combined with Q410 it looks like (as if this train can carry any more!). Also, new symbols have been popping up everywhere as he experiments with routes. These could stay, or go.

Overall, I think the future for our area is positive. Yes, possibly losing the oil trains will be a big blow... But you gotta look to the future. There is nothing we can do about that decision. Railfanning will be interesting from here on out.... But one thing is for sure:

Change is definitely coming!

Anyway, these are my thoughts. But, please feel free to respond and let me know your thoughts!!!

The Howard Street Tunnel Link:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-howard-street-tunnel-20161216-story.html

Intermodal Expansion NJ Link:
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2016/12/officials_break_ground_for_bayonne_ship-to-rail_fa.html



Your analysis is very optimistic. I hope it comes true. But I doubt it. From experience with EHH on both Canadian railways I would suggest that CSX will lose, not gain, traffic. EHH does not like many types of traffic such as oil, overseas containers, auto parts, finished autos, grain and unit trains. In his view these types of traffic do not have a high enough profit margin. They make money, just not enough money.

He will store 25% of CSX's freight cars and locomotives, greatly reduce daily train starts, increase train length and make every train a wayfreight. Unit trains will be filled out with general freight. Terminal delays will increase as trains double and triple together. Traffic will be shed down to the point that fewer trains will be operated for maximum profit. Customers will be lost.

It remains to be seen if EHH can operate a system as complex and dependent on intermodal as CSX. I do not share your optimism.

KG



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/21/17 05:42 by kgmontreal.

Totally wishful thinking, and not based upon reality. First, routing via Selkirk is going WAY outta the way for mid-Atlantic traffic when you don't have to. Also, good luck on trying to run 45 or more trains a day up the River Line, which still has too much single track. Worse still, you cannot efficiently run 20 or more additional trains a day up through the Philly-NY corridor, including through the North Jersey terminal area. Certainly never gonna happen with intermodal traffic. And what about the all the public/private money sunk into the Cumberland route for double-stacks, are they simply going to throw that all away?

No, no, the ex-B&O is a perfectly fine route and there's plenty of traffic for both, including more local traffic along the B&O than the old NYC. Of course there's no rule against dreaming; heck in my dreams the LV would still be a four-track mainline and the DT&I would still be a through route, and.....

JG

The new Rocky Mount intermodal center will generate a lot of traffic.

I suspect CSX in 2020 will have a much different look.

Posted from Android

I dont see how Cumberland would close. Even with Sand Patch I am assuming it is a quicker route than running east than south. CSX already tried this idea with the St.Louis line in the 80s. I would think Willard would be a more important terminal still as it has traffic from both the ex NYC and B&O to and from Chicago to points east.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/21/17 08:24 by WLE2679.

Sand Patch will always see intermodal traffic. Much shorter and quicker route to Chicago from Baltimore.

Posted from iPhone

farmer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sand Patch will always see intermodal traffic.
> Much shorter and quicker route to Chicago from
> Baltimore.
>
> Posted from iPhone


Plus, the company has invested countless years and $$$ in improving clearances on the route, specifically to run more intermodal. The B&O in general feeds carload traffic from the midwest into the mid Atlantic states, much of it being switched at Cumberland. I can't see CSX wanting to add all those extra miles for say, traffic moving from Michigan, Ohio, or Indiana to North Carolina, Virginia or Maryland to run via Selkirk.

Cumberland to Selkirk is a huge haul. When FEDEX started ops EVERYTHING went to MEM. Didn't matter if the shipper/receiver were across the street from each other. It took awhile to put facilities in place to sort local stuff out, but once the local facility was in place it was considered an asset allowing growth in the air lanes.

The only visual change I've seen on the Water Level Route since EHH took over is that I'm seeing A LOT more CSX trains with only one unit in charge, usually autorack trains...

I do agree with the author of this discussion. Should the day arrive that the train frequency does increase on the River Sub to the area of 45 trains per day? My opinion is that CSX will then need to increase the lines train capacity by extending the double tracking north from Bogota, MP-7 to MP-22 Orangeburg, Newburgh MP-55 to Milton MP-66, Kingston MP-90 to West Camp. MP-102) and Athens MP-114 to Coxsackie MP-118)

The double / triple track now goes north to CP10 I believe.

Conrail and CSX did a lot of siding extensions. The line is much more fluid than it was 30 years ago.

Posted from Android

I thought I posted something on this thread last night, but if I did maybe it got deleted by the TO police. Anyway, I have good knowledge of CSX's River line, NS's ex-CR across PA, CSX Sand Patch Line, and NS's Pokey. All are key Rail Lines in the NE, and all will survive at current, and even fairly reduced traffic levels. And all can take more traffic in a re-resurgence of traffic. I just heard today that CSX Philly oil trains will be eliminated by mid-summer due to a Trump approved pipeline, and not sure how that will affect NS's delivery to PBF at Reybold, DE. Both have barge access. These four are the only remaining rail mainline multi-track arteries from the Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. Economics and politics will determine the future of all of them, but they should survive those economic and political upheavals.