Eastern Railroad Discussion > Is natural gas going the way of coal?

Bloomberg has a piece speculating on whether natural gas is already approaching a peak. Coal is over, but are renewables likely to push gas aside?

Railroads still derive a huge amount of income from coal, oil, natural gas, and all the sand, pipes, waste, and byproducts. And railroads burn a lot of diesel fuel.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/big-oil-sees-salvation-in-gas-but-what-if-it-s-the-wrong-bet

Posted from Android

it's all about the cost and reliability of energy. IF the costs and blackouts of renewable energy forms INCREASE, people will NOT be pleased. IF that happens, coal could be looked at again......

66

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bloomberg has a piece speculating on whether
> natural gas is already approaching a peak. Coal is
> over, but are renewables likely to push gas
> aside?
>
> Railroads still derive a huge amount of income
> from coal, oil, natural gas, and all the sand,
> pipes, waste, and byproducts. And railroads burn a
> lot of diesel fuel.
>
>
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17
> /big-oil-sees-salvation-in-gas-but-what-if-it-s-th
> e-wrong-bet
>
> Posted from Android
Doubt it right now. Natural Gas is around $3 per MCF and it is over produced right now because of the Shale area. Remember things like solar and wind look attractive at first....but that is because of government subsidiary during the beginning stages. From people I know that have these, they are money pits.

the reliability of solar and wind is what would concern me. no sun or wind can't be good for peak demands.....

66

goneon66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> the reliability of solar and wind is what would
> concern me. no sun or wind can't be good for peak
> demands.....
>
> 66

The sun and wind are ever-present (well, no sun after
dark, but you get the drift.) Variability and the the
absence of decent storage are problems. I'll bet my
bottom dollar that some grad student will figure out
how to store electricity cheaply and efficiently.
Until then,continue to raise objections. We've still
got a few years. I don't know about your area, but
here in central Michigan, we find windmills all over
the place, and they're popping up like mushrooms.
There must be a reason for that. Business types aren't
all short-sighted.

John.

I worked for an engineering consulting firm before I retired doing radio communications stuff and dealt with numerous power utility companies.
Our electrical side did more consulting work and the big issue about wind and solar, especially large wind and solar farms will getting the power to where it is needed.

Out in west Texas there are some complaints about the large number of 'ugly' wind turbines and very few about the solar farms because they cannot be seen.

What is hard to do is design and build miles and miles of very large power transmission lines to get the power from in our example west Texas to larger cities such as Austin, San Antonio, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, etc.

No on wanted these very large transmission lines towers, generally 345 kV or the smaller 138 kV towers in their back yards. I don't blame them.

Plus property owners must be dealt with and if a bunch of land owners don't want the lines going through their property, then the court system must be utilized. Making it even more expensive.

Then you hit the landowners who realize and negotiate a deal where they get good compensation for the power lines through their property and they can still raise their cattle and crops.

Also, there are some HOA's that don't want those 'ugly' solar panels showing on home roofs from the residential streets.

So it is going to be interesting to see how all of this develops.

Pat
WA5VRO
South Austin, TX

So, I have nine tons of air conditioning in my new house, it's 112 or above every day and my electric bill is
around $100. I (for laughs) got a quote on enough roof panels and batteries to power everything and it came in
just under $30K. My great grand children wouldn't live long enough for this to pencil out!

Out

Eventually natural gas production will peak, But one fuel that is going the way of coal is #2 fuel oil. Having been a third generation oil man and in the business for most of my adult life ( I am retired now) I can say that #2 fuel oil as a home heating method is dying. Will take longer to die than coal did but it will eventually go away. While you may not heat with oil and say that does not bother you ,it going away will impact the existing distribution system to the point where there may be areas of the country where liquid petroleum products may not be available or very expensive. Unless the oil producers can find a way to crack a barrel of crude and not get light distillates it's production will get very expensive as fuel oil either becomes a very cheap fuel with no market or a waste product. ---- Ken

I'm seeing a lot of solar hot water for pool heating here in FL. About two years payback compared to propane on a new installation.

Our association is working on new guidelines to allow the new barrel tile solar collector roof tiles.

Posted from Android

I'm having a little mathematical trouble with the post on solar and air conditioning above.
A 'Ton' of air conditioning is 12,000 BTU, air conditioning efficiency is rated in SEER, (Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio,) or the actual usage number, EER, which takes out the 'Seasonal.' EER is just BTU per Watt, and Kilowatt hours, which are the units electricity is sold by, are just 1000 Watts used for an hour.

So, 9 Tons, or 12,000 X 9=108,000BTU. Units rated 14 EER (which is REAL high) would give us 108,000/14, or 7.7 Kilowatts per hour of continuous operation. Lets say the units only run half of the time, or 12 hours a day, times 30 days a month,
7.7 X 12 X 30=2772 KWH.

If his electricity is ONLY a dime per KWH average, that would be $277.20, before the rest of the electrical use in the house?
G

The nine tons doesn't run continuously and it is 14 SEER and I'm paying less than a dime a KWH. My point is that I
have capacity, more than I need to maintain 78 deg in the house (and the large garage if I desire) at a very modest
cost. I'm also in an area that should be prime for solar but financially it makes no sense.

Out

Sorry to be the troll under the bridge, but having worked on #2 oil fired steam generators for several years, I question why "light distillates" would not have a use in the future.

I am a California licensed heating and air conditioning contractor, and as such have worked on two houses in Northern California in the country that used home home heating oil. All the other country homes use propane, which is also a refinery byproduct.

The efficiency of an oil fired boiler is very low compared to the newer condensing propane or natural gas furnaces.

It should also be mentioned that #2 HHO, contains 144,000 BTU per gallon, while propane contains 94,600 BTU. When we look at the cost of propane usually being about a dollar less than # 2HHO, and the fact that we get more net heat per gallon of propane, it is obvious why #2HHO isn't used in new installations any more.

Next to consider is the cost of installing an underground tank, and the tremendous cost of remediating a leaking underground tank!

Not to mention that the 'distillates' not sold as #2 HHO are simply sold as #2 diesel.
G

callum_out Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The nine tons doesn't run continuously and it is
> 14 SEER and I'm paying less than a dime a KWH. My
> point is that I
> have capacity, more than I need to maintain 78 deg
> in the house (and the large garage if I desire) at
> a very modest
> cost. I'm also in an area that should be prime for
> solar but financially it makes no sense.
>
> Out

Surely if you want all that air conditioning capacity then you should be the one paying for it and not the planet! Or am I missing something...?

Posted from Android

exhaustED Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> callum_out Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The nine tons doesn't run continuously and it
> is
> > 14 SEER and I'm paying less than a dime a KWH.
> My
> > point is that I
> > have capacity, more than I need to maintain 78
> deg
> > in the house (and the large garage if I desire)
> at
> > a very modest
> > cost. I'm also in an area that should be prime
> for
> > solar but financially it makes no sense.
> >
> > Out
>
> Surely if you want all that air conditioning
> capacity then you should be the one paying for it
> and not the planet! Or am I missing something...?
>
> Posted from Android

yes, a LOT of people that profess their concern for the welfare of the planet are conveniently ignoring their other beliefs that conflict with their concern for humanity. so let's ease up on a person's choice to utilize air conditioning. too bad we can't discuss it here as it would be a very short discussion........

66

I buy a house with air conditioning having the highest available efficiency, I buy a house with R50
insulation, I buy power which is generated by a hydro electric facility and I'm the one who doesn't
have concern for the planet?

Out

Waaaait a minute!

SEER is again SEASONAL Energy Efficiency Ratio, which is ALWAYS a higher number than EER, which is the ACTUAL consumption!

SEER is computed on an 85 degree day, and has been stated here already, the outside temp is 112, or 27 degrees higher than the test temperature, which greatly lowers the efficiency. All 14 SEER condensing units will have an EER of less than 12. A 14 SEER unit is at least 3 or 4 SEER below the most efficient!

Lastly, READ what I said, specifically "if it RUNS ONLY HALF THE TIME" "the cost would be $277 plus the cost of running the rest of the house!!"

I stand on what I said, the dollar amounts are way understated, and I would really like to see a weekday daylight electric bill of "less than a dime."

EDIT:
Ken has missed the fact that all of the major heating and air conditioning manufacturers make propane fired furnaces that achieve 96% efficiency. #2HHO doesn't get above about 70% efficiency. When you multiply out the efficiency difference versus the cost, there is more net heat in a gallon of propane.
G



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/24/17 13:04 by ExSPCondr.

Wait until all those windmill blades have to be replaced or rebuilt. We will get to see all those prop blade trains again!

And those things would be miles ahead if not for the input end 1:150 gearbox which like most speed up drives
with high side loads tends to eat bearings. And bearings require very expensive cranes to drop the module for
rebuilding. The wind may be free but the upkeep tends to be expensive.

Out

ExSPCondr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sorry to be the troll under the bridge, but having
> worked on #2 oil fired steam generators for
> several years, I question why "light distillates"
> would not have a use in the future.
>
> I am a California licensed heating and air
> conditioning contractor, and as such have worked
> on two houses in Northern California in the
> country that used home home heating oil. All the
> other country homes use propane, which is also a
> refinery byproduct.
>
> The efficiency of an oil fired boiler is very low
> compared to the newer condensing propane or
> natural gas furnaces.
>
> It should also be mentioned that #2 HHO, contains
> 144,000 BTU per gallon, while propane contains
> 94,600 BTU. When we look at the cost of propane
> usually being about a dollar less than # 2HHO, and
> the fact that we get more net heat per gallon of
> propane, it is obvious why #2HHO isn't used in new
> installations any more.
>
> Next to consider is the cost of installing an
> underground tank, and the tremendous cost of
> remediating a leaking underground tank!
>
> Not to mention that the 'distillates' not sold as
> #2 HHO are simply sold as #2 diesel.
> G

You don't get more net heat per gallon with propane !! BTU rating is much less depending on quality of propane usually about 70-73% of oil. Propane also at least here in Pa. has some wild price swings and supply issues when it gets cold.
With the ridiculous EPA regulations we now have 4 grades of diesel.Different sulfur percentages depending on use. Not all refineries can make all grades as it depends on the feed stock they get. All depends on your location and distance for transportation from either refineries or pipeline terminals how expensive it will get and the availability. ---------- Ken

callum_out Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And those things would be miles ahead if not for
> the input end 1:150 gearbox which like most speed
> up drives
> with high side loads tends to eat bearings. And
> bearings require very expensive cranes to drop the
> module for
> rebuilding. The wind may be free but the upkeep
> tends to be expensive.
>
> Out

Do those cranes use diesel engines?

Posted from Android