Eastern Railroad Discussion > Is this the end of stack trains ???

With mounting tarrifs,will this be the end of stack trains,if were not buying then were not hauling are we ????  Scoobydoobydoo

scoobydoobydoo Wrote:
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> With mounting tarrifs,will this be the end of
> stack trains,if were not buying then were not
> hauling are we ????  Scoobydoobydoo

No. The technology is firmly in place, and the economies of scale and operational efficiencies are too great. They are part and parcel of railroading now.

And lots of traffic in those containers is entirely domestic. Origin in the US, destination in the US. Completely tariff-free.

There may be some reduction in traffic from out of the country. But the domestic traffic will remain. Stack trains will not disappear.

MC

Posted from Android

scoobydoobydoo Wrote:
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> With mounting tarrifs,will this be the end of
> stack trains,if were not buying then were not
> hauling are we ????  Scoobydoobydoo

You;re kidding, right?

Put the mouse down....
step away from the computer...

Too much news...

You wont even notice the tariffs. People are thinking retail when they need to be thinking wholesale. Your already paying 200 to 500% mark up when you purchase a item. You wont think much about another 125%

Yep, the end of stack trains.

Car manufacturers are getting busy making 40ft boxcars and we will return to that…



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/09/25 17:34 by Spoony81.

NSDTK Wrote:
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> You wont even notice the tariffs. People are
> thinking retail when they need to be thinking
> wholesale. Your already paying 200 to 500% mark up
> when you purchase a item. You wont think much
> about another 125%

You can't possibly be serious.

MC

Spoony81 Wrote:
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> Yep, the end of stack trains.
>
> Car manufacturers are getting busy making 40ft
> boxcars and we will return to that…

Greenbrier, the rail car manufacturer, has an 18 month to two year backlog of orders for rail cars. They mentioned on the call that the replacement cycle alone is a tremendous amount of business for them.

So, any orders for wood 40 foot boxcars will have to wait a while...

NSDTK Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You wont even notice the tariffs. People are
> thinking retail when they need to be thinking
> wholesale. Your already paying 200 to 500% mark up
> when you purchase a item. You wont think much
> about another 125%

Are you living under a rock?

Posted from iPhone

New HVAC units assembled at my last employer were typically shipped longer distances via containers, to states
such as California and Washington. Almost all were drayed to the Avon/Big Four yard intermodal facility. 

International shipments typically moved in 20' containers, to places such as Chile, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia 
(yes, electric fancoil-type heaters to the Kingdom). Most of these containers had the "Capital" company logo on their
sides, a company based in Sacramento last time I checked.

No shipments to Canada, BTW, since a 45% Canadian tariff on US-made, finished HVAC equipment was in place
when I retired a few years ago. This may have changed since then.

 

ironmtn Wrote:
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> NSDTK Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > You wont even notice the tariffs. People are
> > thinking retail when they need to be thinking
> > wholesale. Your already paying 200 to 500% mark
> up
> > when you purchase a item. You wont think much
> > about another 125%
>
> You can't possibly be serious.
>
> MC

Yep, we just replaced our aging iPhones before the tariffs kick in and they told us was they were expecting the iPhone 16 Pro which now sells for $999 to sell for $1300 with the tariffs on China merch added in. We did ask if they had heard any numbers for the same, made in the USA iPhone and they told us they were expecting it to be over $3000 retail.

Unfortunately, I think we probably need China worse than they need us. Go to your local Target or Walmart and pick up any consumer goods item. Made in China. Important to note why China and other 3rd world or developing nations have our manufacturing. It's because Wall Street and corporations cannot see past next quarters profits...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/25 09:45 by billnict.

billnict Wrote:

>
> Unfortunately, I think we probably need China
> worse than they need us. Go to your local Target
> or Walmart and pick up any consumer goods item.
> Made in China. Important to note why China and
> other 3rd world or developing nations have our
> manufacturing. It's because Wall Street and
> corporations cannot see past next quarters
> profits...

For better or worse, unbridled capitalism does focus on next quarter's profits. Part of which is the cost to produce something.  There's a reason why US carmaker factories are filling with robots. Working alongside (for now) $60-$75 per hour plus benefits UAW and non-union folks. If the value added by the worker isn't valued by the car buyer, the worker won't have a job for very long. Because they won't sell many cars.

Even China has outsourced much of high labor content, low skill work to Vietnam, Cambodia, etc. As its own Chinese workforce focuses on higher skill work. Years ago, Chinese produced shoes and clothing. Now it imports shoes and clothing for workers who are making iPhones, computers, chips, etc.

Too much drama.....Stacks will be here as long as steel rails. More than ever...You must listen to CNN?? or MSNBC???..... America can survive just fine. That 7 $trillion investment in the US by various countries and industries has escaped your notice???? What Trump has done should have been done decades ago. Wait and see. The news is FAKE for the most part. 

 

No, next question?

NSDTK Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You wont even notice the tariffs. People are
> thinking retail when they need to be thinking
> wholesale. Your already paying 200 to 500% mark up
> when you purchase a item. You wont think much
> about another 125%

The end of "de Minimus" exemption will have a bigger
effect. And then their is the proposed port fee on
Chinese built ships, this won't kill off trade at least
directly, but it might kill off some of the smaller US
ports. Oakland might survive on Hawaiian and SeaTac
on Alaskan traffic. But smaller east coast ports.

TimT Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Too much drama.....Stacks will be here as long as
> steel rails. More than ever...You must listen to
> CNN?? or MSNBC???..... America can survive just
> fine. That 7 $trillion investment in the US by
> various countries and industries has escaped your
> notice???? What Trump has done should have been
> done decades ago. Wait and see. The news is FAKE
> for the most part. 
>
>  

Curious where you’re getting that $7 trillion figure from. The largest number I’ve seen is $1.2 trillion.

CW

Posted from iPhone

TimT Wrote:
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> Too much drama.....Stacks will be here as long as
> steel rails.

Until something better comes along. I have no idea what that might be, but railroad history is replete with such sentiments about one technology or another that " will be here as long as steel rails".

More than ever...You must listen to
> CNN?? or MSNBC???.....

Yes. And Fox on occasion. And NPR. And conservative talk radio. And various other websites and podcasts of all political stripes. And I read extensively, all perspectives, all sides. Then I make up my own mind on the facts and the merits of the cases that I have read and heard. Been doing it that way for over 60 years. Works fine. Try it.

> America can survive just
> fine.

Never said nor suggested that it couldn't. We don't need to make America great again. It's been and is great. Been that way for a long time, too.

That 7 $trillion investment in the US by
> various countries and industries has escaped your
> notice????

Nope. Very much aware of it. Yes, the number seems high to me too, but the investment is occurring. It's been ongoing for some time. Which of itself leads a reasonable person to ask why such drastic, damaging actions have to be taken. Confidence in the US was very high, including for the dollar as the world's reserve currency (China would like to end that though), and confidence in our debt, too. I've been aware for years of how much of our debt (mainly Treasurys) is held by foreign nations and who they are. I'm not a trader or Wall Streeter either. Many people are just waking up to that fact. I've known about it and followed it for many years

> What Trump has done should have been
> done decades ago. Wait and see.

I've said in other threads that NAFTA and other free trade deals could have been and should have been unwound years ago. It probably could have been in the years shortly after it was enacted. But now our trade is so deeply intertwined globally that it can only be done with extraordinary difficulty, and lots of damage along the way. If it's even possible. Control it, reduce it, manage it vigorously - yes. But turn back the hands of time - highly doubtful if it can be done, and the collateral damage will be huge. I've seen deep inside global supply chains through my work. Unwinding it all will be immensely difficult and costly. And quite possibly impossible.

> The news is FAKE
> for the most part. 

Before I worked in manufacturing at the end of my career I was for many years in IT with a major media company. Always on the business side, never the newsroom or editorial, But I knew plenty of editors and reporters, and saw up close daily how hard they worked pursuing the facts, and the quality of what they did. And I did marketing work in circulation too. If the product wasn't good, our numbers would have plummeted. They didn't. We grew, were profitable, and served our communities well. Our customers had high confidence in us and all of our company's publications and TV and radio stations.

This lie about fake news (and it a lie) is among the worst of the many falsehoods out there. Because it undercuts credibility and trust in our dialogue and debate with each other. And short circuits our critical thinking. It's one of the first lies that authoritarians always tell, with the corollary that they then will tell the truth because nobody else can. Which is the biggest lie of all. Plenty of examples in history, with big consequences. Being repeated all over once again. It's incredibly sad.

Stack trains will survive and do fine. So railroads, and so will our nation. But both will be challenged by completely unforced errors of enormous magnitude by our leaders. It doesn't have to be this way. And shouldn't be. But it will be as long as some of us keep drinking the kool-aid.

MC



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/25 19:11 by ironmtn.

Not a single picture of an EOT. Sad.

LOL

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
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> They mentioned on the call that the replacement
> cycle alone is a tremendous amount of business for
> them.
>
> So, any orders for wood 40 foot boxcars will have
> to wait a while...

SOO6617 Wrote:

> The end of "de Minimus" exemption will have a
> bigger
> effect. And then their is the proposed port fee
> on
> Chinese built ships, this won't kill off trade at
> least
> directly, but it might kill off some of the
> smaller US
> ports. Oakland might survive on Hawaiian and
> SeaTac
> on Alaskan traffic. But smaller east coast ports.

DING DING DING, we have a winner!   $1.5 million PER PORT CALL for a Chinese BUILT ship, regardless of operator or flag, and $1 million PER PORT CALL for any company that owns at least 1 Chinese built ship OR has one on order, regardless of who they are or what flag they said under.  So, virtually EVERY major container line and bulk carrier out there is now paying at least $1 million extra per port call in the US.  AS you said, this will not kill of trade - but it will change how trade moves in the US.  There WILL be big winners in ports, trucking, and rail - there WILL be big losers in ports, trucking, and rail.

Lets take for example, ZIM, the Israeli based container line.   Their ZIM MOUNT DENALI in port at Savannah right now.  The Mount Denali is a 2023 built, Hong Kong Flagged container ship.  It arrived in US waters on March 30 and has been working it's way down the eastern seaboard, arriving Savannah from Wilmington.  It likely has Jacksonville and Miami yet to go before headed back across the pond.  Savannah APPEARS to be stop 4 for this vessel, so if he has 2 more to go, that's 6 ports of call where they have to pay a $1.5 million tax.  Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that someone at ZIM is going to set down with a sharp pencil and start doing to math to eliminate port calls at $1.5 million a pop.  So the question becomes, can I move the containers I am offloading in say  Wilmington to their destination by truck or rail out of lets say Savannah for less that $1.5 million in additional freight?  For example, for simply math, lets say the Mount Denali unloads 4000 containers in Wilmington, and the average cost to handle and deliver each can to end user is $1500 - That is $6,000,000 in freight and handling for those containers, plus the $1,500,000 Port Call Tax.  So $7.5 million bucks.   Now I have to pay the $1,500,000 in Savannah anyway, so if I can move all of Wilmington's containers out of Savannah by rail or truck for LESS than $7.5 million,  I'm saving money and screw stopping at Wilmington.