Eastern Railroad Discussion > NS to drop international intermodal on >20 lanes

And so it begins...

Link to Journal of Commerce article from 4/29/25:

JoC: NS to drop international intermodal on >20 lanes to E Coast ports

Starts May 31, still time to see how things shake out btw now and then; but I'm not optimistic. 

Victor Baird



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/29/25 16:54 by wabash2800.

There isn't much reason to be optomistic, just hunker down until this purely political nonesense blows over. 
Perhaps sanity will return and America can just be America again. In my humble opinion America was never not great!
Gonut

Gonut1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In my humble opinion America was
> never not great!
> Gonut

That's always been my feeling as well.

Kim Heusel

Nothing says "we want to grow" or move freight from the highway to the rails like eleminaiting service lanes.
SPG my @$$

nsrlink Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nothing says "we want to grow" or move freight
> from the highway to the rails like eleminaiting
> service lanes.
> SPG my @$$

It's all about the Orange Disrupter and his tariffs.

aehouse Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> nsrlink Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Nothing says "we want to grow" or move freight
> > from the highway to the rails like eleminaiting
> > service lanes.
> > SPG my @$$
>
> It's all about the Orange Disrupter and his
> tariffs.


Not quite, its about eliminating trains....meaning crew starts?!

And to be fair, we all know that overseas container traffic is probably going to be down for awhile.

Posted from Android

The Wall Street Journal has an article this morning about the "do or die" situation many retailers, shippers, manufacturers, etc are in right now.  Orders for Christmas season need to lock over the next few weeks. Manufacturers in China, Vietnam, Thailand, etc need lead time to tool up and staff for production. Shipping companies need to schedule port calls, secure leases, etc.

If you don't know what the end price of goods will be, forecasting sales becomes a joke.  That may be what the heads of  Walmart, Target, Home Depot told President Trump last week. Before he issued another postponement.

Railroads tend to see crew members as disposable. Fire 'em we'll hire more when we need 'em. Putting aside the stupidity of that strategy, it exposes you to major swings in the markets and traffic.

Extensive and detailed discussion here on TO recently - worth a read for the perspective: https://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?1,6016658,page=1

Hate to say it, but I am not surprised by this action by NS. And I will suggest that this will be the first of such actions by the Class One carriers. They will be looking at advance data on sailings and port calls / arrivals here in the US, data that is widely available. And their internal data of bookings for train placements by the shipping companies, intermodal operators and consignees. It's clear that they are looking at fairly steep declines in the weeks ahead.

This service adjustment by NS is mostly about the fact that they have not been able to build the volumes they hoped for from east coast ports such as Savannah, Charleston and Jacksonville. Interestingly, per the article, that includes US flag service subject to Jones Act US-only crewing and operating requirements for Jacksonville to Puerto Rico steamship service. All of this is regrettable. You have to give NS credit for trying to build the traffic. They will compete with CSX in many of these lanes, and maybe there's just not enough traffic for both carriers. And CSX has always been strong in Southeast to Upper Midwest traffic lanes, arguably with a better route network for such service. But there's probably impact from declining Oriental trade numbers, too. Gulf Coast and Southeast ports account on average for around 20% more or less of their traffic from China and Southeast Asia. Not the overwhelming amounts that west coast ports get, but still a goodly chunk. West Coast ports are seeing sharp declines in such traffic, and that probably means even fewer calls by ships from China and Southeast Asia to the already smaller number of port calls they make to Southeastern and Gulf Coast ports.

The data from the Port of Los Angeles, the nation's largest port, and their excellent website is particularly telling. Described and analyzed in a factual, no-drama manner in this recent video, also mentioned in a later thread here on TO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GgcIuQ4X5k   Be sure to watch it all the way through, but particularly the second half where the presenter goes into comparative data trendlines. That's what's really important - not spot data for any given location or date. Port director Gene Seroka has also been on CNBC recently talking in detail about a 35% drop in traffic that LA is seeing in the weeks ahead.

Also being tracked in various sources are "blank sailings" - scheduled ship sailings that are not being operated due to traffic declines. They are notably up in number from Orient ports, particularly from China. That represents lost traffic that NS might have moved at some point.

NS and every other carrier is watching this advance data from various sources, some external and public, some internal and proprietary, very carefully. If they are seeing traffic declines in the weeks ahead based on that data, they are going to act to modify their operating plans. This isn't about some campaign to reduce crew starts or to somehow punish crews or to consciously reduce headcount by design. It's about the fact that a substantial chunk of traffic is going into decline (hopefully only temporarily). And with today's tools and literally weeks of advance notice they have an unprecedented crystal ball to be able to see those declines, and to act upon them.

Best regards to all of the operating personnel at NS and elsewhere who are affected. Hopefully the furloughs and layoffs will be few and short, and will be tolerable. But there are solid reasons to be concerned about the longer term future that later weeks of trendline data will reveal. That's not in NS's hands or those of any carrier or any of us. It's in the hands of Washington and particularly the White House.

MC

Later edited to include the third paragraph which had been inadvertently left out in the original posting. Sorry for the editing error.



Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 04/30/25 13:04 by ironmtn.

ironmtn Wrote:

> This isn't
> about some campaign to reduce crew starts or to
> somehow punish crews or to consciously reduce
> headcount by design. It's about the fact that a
> substantial chunk of traffic is going into decline
> (hopefully only temporarily). And with today's
> tools and literally weeks of advance notice they
> have an unprecedented crystal ball to be able to
> see those declines, and to act upon them.
>

Perhaps you missed the recent NS memo involving "rearranging the deck chairs"....I mean eliminating trains/modifying them. Trust me when I say if there is an opportunity to eliminate/make current trains even longer, it WILL happen.

Yes, the tariffs and its consequences (good and bad) are going to affect everything including the rails...

Posted from Android

Well written by you sir.

BRAVO.    JIM Blaze replying.   Journalist for Railway Age.

Jim Blaze
Sicklerville, NJ

Some good posts on this topic. The short summary is if import container volume craters because of the tariffs (which appears to be happening), no one should be surprised to see the carriers adjust accordingly.

Elections have consequences.

Posted from iPhone

Wilmington NC, Charleston, Savannah, Brunswick, and Jacksonville are heavily exposed to threats on imported vehicles, port stops, containers, etc.

I have to believe legislators of both parties have to be very concerned about jobs, investment in their ports, economic activity, etc.

Posted from Android

Ironically the ILA and Teamsters both supported the current administration, whose members will bear the effect of traffic slowdowns.