Passenger Trains > Amtrak Regional Corridors and the NEC are also st risk

IT IS NOT JUST THE LONG-DISTANCE TRAINS THAT ARE AT RISK.  CORRIDORS ARE ALSO IN AMTRAK'S CUT-BACK PLANS. 

Perhaps we've all (myself certainly included) been so focused on Amtrak's plans to cut the National Network routes to three times per week in 2021, that a parallel threat to the various corridor and regional services has been missed. This quote is from Trains Magazine's Bob Johnston's very astute Newswire story on the 2021 Amtrak Tri-weekly Service announcement. There was a direct promise to cut corridors (both NEC and Regional) included as well. 

Amtrak spokeswoman Christina Leeds said in a statement, “We are still in the planning phase, so we can’t answer most of your questions at this time. Due to the long-term impact of COVID-19 on ridership, Amtrak has made the decision to operate with reduced capacity through FY21. We are planning 32% fewer frequencies on the NEC, 24% fewer for our state-supported service and plan to reduce most long-distance trains to three days per week, beginning Oct. 1, 2020. Our goal is to restore daily service on these routes as demand warrants, potentially by the summer of 2021. We will use specific and measurable metrics to guide our restoration of frequencies and service.” 

It may well be appropriate that Amtrak plans to restructure the NEC. We know they are very slowly bringing back the ACELA EXPRESS service (understandably given its nearly exclusively business-focused clientele). But the situation with state-supported corridors is more interesting. These routes run solely because states request them, and pay for them--based on the frequency/level of service previously agreed on offer. 

The Amtrak portion of the CARES Act contained $239,000,000 in FY 2020 to help the states off-set losses on these "less than 750 miles" regional trains. And indeed most of these services were reduced--or in some cases like the VERMONTER, ETHAN ALLEN, ADIRONDACK, DOWNEASTER and PERE MARQUETTE temporarily suspended. But both the DOWNEASTER and PDERRE MARQUETTE lines are already seeing at least a partial service recovery. This is also true for the HIAWATHA corridor from Chicago to Milwaukee.  

But how can Amtrak know now that its state-partners will want to run 1/4 fewer trains in FY 2021? And this is what Amtrak proposes if it gets the over $1B supplement it is demanding for that year!  

The state-supporter regional trains are required by law to receive full operational funding from those state partners. So is Amtrak saying to Maine and Washington state--for example--that yes, you normally have five daily DOWNEASTER/CASCADES trains--but we will only run 3 of them, even if you want them all restored"? Does California agree to drop PACIFIC SURFLINER service by four-five daily trips through at least September 30, 2021? Does Michigan want only two daily Detroit-Chicago trains? The answer may be yes--because of state budget woes--but Amtrak can't know that now.  

And of course in the present fiscal period the states got the $239m in CARES $ to off-set this problem. The correct approach to this from Amtrak should be to tell the Congress and the states what would be needed to go back to the norm and why the existing contracts are now purportedly not enough.  Amtrak does not do this in its FY 2021 budget request with any business or product line. Indeed, after demanding a $1B supplement to its normal budget for FY 2021, it still threatens these cuts.

And Amtrak claims the less than 750 mile corridors are its future?  

Amtrak can and should adjust the NEC within reason at its own initiative. It is worth noting, however, that Amtrak still plans to begin spending $400,000,000 on upgrades to 30th Street Station in Philadelphia in 2020/2021.  The purported savings from the long-haul network cuts are only $150,000,000. I suspect every NEC train could also return if this project was allowed to wait.

Unlike the Portal Bridge replacement project, this work in Philly is an example of something nice, but not essential!  And as noted above, less than half of this single station renovation spending would preserve daily service on the national network as well.  

When it comes to its state partnerships things with Amtrak should be different. Unless Amtrak has some miraculous undisclosed foresight into the intentions of its state partners, this promise to cut 24% of the state-supported regional trains is at best an arrogant threat. This is particularly so as applied to trains which Amtrak already bills directly to the states.  

Remember that before the pandemic Amtrak President Richard Anderson announced the carrier would show an operational profit in FY 2020 by counting the state-supported service revenues as positive income.  What we really see here is Amtrak's eternal institutionalized pessimism.

They, of course, do not know now how things will be next year in terms of ridership or revenues--but the trends already in place, and proven in their own April and May reports, belie the need for everything they propose.  This post will close with Bob Johnston's spot on analysis from the Trains Newswire of how well system-wide Amtrak ridership and revenues have already risen just between April and May. Of course the irony here is the National Network brought in more income than all corridors (NEC and regional) combined, but all product lines are on the rise. 

"While ridership and revenue remains suppressed because of the pandemic, long-distance ticket revenues climbed 71%, from $6.8 million to $11.6 million, between April and May. Operating with approximately the same frequencies, Northeast Corridor billing rose about 60% from $1.5 million to $2.4 million, and state supported trains generated less than a 50% increase, from $2.3 million in April to $3.5 million in May. So existing long-distance service, mostly operating seven days a week, provided almost double the May revenue of Corridor and state-supported operations". 

With a trend like this, why plan now to garrotte your future recovery? Only at Amtrak?!!  Tell your Congressional Delegation to stop this even if you only use Corridor/Regional trains.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/25/20 17:37 by Railvt.

Silver Meteor and Silver Star cuts apparently start on July 6, according to some reports.

You are right, the Meteor will run basically M-Th and the Star F_Su. Think about that. If you need to leave Tampa on Monday you're out of luck until Friday.

Railvt Wrote:
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> You are right, the Meteor will run basically M-Th
> and the Star F_Su. Think about that. If you need
> to leave Tampa on Monday you're out of luck until
> Friday.

Isn't there a bus connection on the days that it is not running? However if you want to get to or from Columbia SC ....

There is a bus Tampa--Orlando on METEOR days. There is just nothing at Columbia, Southern Pines or Hamlet 4 days in a row each week.

They say that in a crisis, everything is accelerated.  I hate to say it, but I think long distrance trains will be gone by FY 2022.  Amtrak has been trying to kill them since Anderson arrived.  Congresspeople are focused on eating one another alive and posturing rather than solving problems, and I do not see them rescuing Amtrak from itself.  

I have never said this before, I don't think, but ride them while you can.  Grab a mask and go.  And don't delay.  As we will witness on July 6 with the SE trains, the end may come faster than we think.

Sucks.

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/25/20 11:50 by Chessie1963.

Three times a week is a death knell for the LD network. They engineered it so that they will NEVER see the metrics to trigger the resumption of daily service. Ridership gains FOLLOW an increase in frequency, rarely does it lead.

Nobody should buy management’s shtick for one minute. If you want to maintain daily service, you will need to demand it in writing from your elected members of Congress.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/25/20 14:45 by Highspeed.

With Amtrak looking at cutbacks, will they minimize some of the operations of the State Support trains? For example - the Vermonter, just run it Springfiled/New Haven to St. Albans, or the Pennsylvanian just Philly to Pittsburgh, or the Carolinian and a host of other trains from Washington DC to southern points? Amtrak could move trains out of NYP to Washington DC. Makes it less convenient for the rider, but what effect does it have on the accounting books. I believe States get "credit" for the entire route that the train travels over (incluing NEC).....If so, this could add more revenue to the train and lessen the $$$ needed from the States. It's been a while since I dug into this accounting and I am at a brain freeze right now in how this really works. Does the Ethan Allen revenue only count from Albany to Rutland, or NYP to Rutland? Is Amtrak looking to re-arrange how it may operate over a corridor to shed even more expenses or move the financial burden to the States?

Highspeed Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Three times a week is a death knell for the LD
> network. They engineered it so that they will
> NEVER see the metrics to trigger the resumption of
> daily service. Ridership gains FOLLOW an increase
> in frequency, rarely does it lead.
>
> Nobody should buy management’s shtick for one
> minute. If you want to maintain daily service, you
> will need to demand it in writing from your
> elected members of Congress.

If people need to travel on a Tuesday to be somewhere on a Wednesday - they are not going to wait for the next train's departure and re-arrange schedule. Or travel on a Monday and lose a day awaiting for the Wednesday..... Thus I don't think you'll ever get a sense of demand and supply with a tri-weekly train, as the demand could be on a day that the train is not operating on. This could be very misleading, as it proved to be once before during the late 1990s when the Mercer Cuts were in effect. And if demand was the driver, then the Cardinal needed to have a second sleeper added most of the year, and perhaps daily operations between April and October. This is when the bird was flying high though back when Boardman was at the helm. 

The title of this thread is even more true to the extent that LD is reduced. They do share at least some of the same dynamics. Besides that, to the extent that Amtrak plays games with LD funding to shore up the Corridor, will only exacerbate things if and when (a) LD funding is reduced or (b) the tri-weekly service results in greater loss of income and smaller savings from reduced service than they think.

I fear Amtrak needs a thorough management-purging or much greater attention from Congress. Failing this I can only conceive Amtrak heading in the direction the country is headed in itself.

Given the primary reason for all this, the Covid situation, what would you all do?

Bill Deaver
Tehachapi, CA

MojaveBill Wrote:
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> Given the primary reason for all this, the Covid
> situation, what would you all do? 

Add more equipment to sold out trains.  It's not like they're already 18 cars long in the good ole days.

MojaveBill Wrote:
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> Given the primary reason for all this, the Covid
> situation, what would you all do?

What does running winter consists in the summer have to do with Covid ? The only thing Covid did was cap capacity at 50%. So with tri-weekly service, they will run 43% of the trains at 50% max capacity, so supply reduced 79%, while demand is now off 70%, likely to be 50% by October.  They are clearly playing games like sneaky, nefarious children deliberately driving off revenue

So treat them like children and slash capital subsidies to their prized NEC until such time as Airnet-21 takes it away from them, and let it rot to a Penn Central state of collapse if necessary, just like the rest of Amtrak. If they want to remain One-Amtrak, treat it all uniformly until the April 1976 mistake is undone.  



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/26/20 04:46 by joemvcnj.

MojaveBill Wrote:
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> Given the primary reason for all this, the Covid
> situation, what would you all do?

Let us be clear:  Airlines are adding flights.  Hotels are opening.  Amtrak is cutting back.

You do the math.

Amtrak, with Anderson still advising, is using COVID to finally kill off the long distance trains.  The end point mentality if the propeller boys is on fill display with the Florida changes.  They do not get it and have no desire to get it.

Flynn is Anderson II.

Now ask yourself this question:  Why have Anderson and Flynn taken on a big job for $0?  I have no idea...it makes no sense.  So what is really going on?

Airlines are definitely adding back service.

In the past few days, both JetBlue and Southwest have deluged me with restored service offers.   $39 from Fort Lauderdale to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, St Louis, Texas; $59 from West Palm Beach to Boston, $99 to Los Angeles area, etc.

American Airlines: to hell with Coronvirus - fill them up:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-airlines-removes-coronavirus-passenger-175726956.html?.tsrc=fin-srch

Good for them!

I would not want to be in such a seating circumstance on a plane or anywhere else. 

joemvcnj Wrote:
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> I would not want to be in such a seating
> circumstance on a plane or anywhere else. 

No one is twisting your arm to make you go. If you have risk factors and co-morbidity's, I would advise you not to get on the plane. Otherwise I would say that the risks of a 100 percent full plane for spreading disease is not much greater than a 87 percent full plane.

PRSL-recall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The title of this thread is even more true to the
> extent that LD is reduced. They do share at least
> some of the same dynamics. Besides that, to the
> extent that Amtrak plays games with LD funding to
> shore up the Corridor, will only exacerbate things
> if and when (a) LD funding is reduced or (b) the
> tri-weekly service results in greater loss of
> income and smaller savings from reduced service
> than they think.
>
> I fear Amtrak needs a thorough management-purging
> or much greater attention from Congress. Failing
> this I can only conceive Amtrak heading in the
> direction the country is headed in itself.

I agree, I for one am sick and tired of this gloom and doom crap myself Since Chessie1963 are like some of the others who see the end to the LD Network as imminent, been there done that when George Warrington was CEO, it wasn't started with Propeller Head, he was trying to prove how 'worthless LD Trains are besides being proven wrong at a Rail meeting in California! I wrote to Congress and if that bill that passed the Senate clears the house and signed, you Doom and Gloom guys can finally shut up!

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/26/20 18:20 by ProAmtrak.