Passenger Trains > IATA statement

The IATA ( International Air Transport Association) just issued a lengthy statement that says that the study they have just completed indicates that air travel numbers will not recover back to 2019 levels until 2024.
 
  They include many factors that went into their conclusion and made an emphasis on how quickly the recent spikes in the covid 19 virus in various states in the US and a number of European countries have ended what was a modest recovery in demand in May/June.  

   My guess is that Amtrak is experiencing the same trends?  

   Ross Rowland 

It would make sense if it was impacting AMTK, particularly to/from/within the high growth states. The U.S. airlines were seeing a pulse in demand beginning to emerge in June for travel through the rest of summer and September. As July 4 arrived and cases began to climb, advance bookings began to drop off and cancellations pick up. There have been significant August and September schedule adjustments by the airlines (pull downs) vs. July to compensate for this fall in demand. 

Until the virus is truly under control, demand will be highly surpressed for all modes of transportation. I would also begin to question the viability of the NEC and Acela given their reliance on business travel (aside from commuter activity, although that’s a piece), and how corporations are beginning to make meaningful changes to their corporate travel policies that appear to be more permanent than stop-gap. 

Amtrak is doing everything they can to lower LD capacity to be 22% of normal by Oct 1. (tri-weekly + 50% occupancy).
Then Vermont wont run either of the two trains from New York, which has very good virus curves, even though they think it safe to open schools.

The Wall Street Journal has an article today about the concern from some states that their neighbors, who aren't masking, aren't limiting gatherings, etc are a part of the problem.

Back when Florida had things more under control, they had border checks to manage the flow of people from Alabama, people coming from New Orleans, or coming down I-95. Then they opened everything up, full blast.

is that 2024 IF covid-19 was not a factor TODAY?

the longer covid-19 lingers and is an issue, the longer it will take for our economy AND demand for all modes of travel to resemble anything like it was in december of 2019.

there are a few other factors/issues that have emerged since covid-19 that COULD further negatively impact light rail, commuter rail, and amtrak ridership levels..........

66

Until we reach herd immunity, we will struggle with this virus.  Quarantining susceptible groups is the answer (65+ and immune system problems).  I suspect most of us by this time have probably encountered this virus in some weak form, but not enough to knock us flat.  We are building antibodies  

what if covid-19 "mutates" frequently?

66

And then the rest of the crowd here wants the full dining car open and prices lowered.  

Regarding herd immunity: A close loved one is recovering from the virus which has caused us to do a lot of reading on antibodies and T cells etc.  From what I understand it appears there are insufficient tests to offer conclusions about protections from antibodies but initial results are showing the antibodies are not long lived.  Plus, there are now 4 variants (mutations) of the virus floating around.  I think we are in the second inning of a long ball game. Wear masks, social distance, wash hands.  My 2 cents.

i read in the WSJ a month ago that auto sales in france had jumped because people don't want to fly or take the train in europe now. i know people are traveling in america the hotels are doing well, just not flying

goneon66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> what if covid-19 "mutates" frequently?
>
> 66

No evidence of it doing that so far. 

The media reporting on immunity has not been that good. Antibodies being short lived does not necessarily mean there is no immunity. The body has other forms of immune memory besides leftover antibodies (lookup B cell and CD4+ and CD8+ T memory cells.) without getting too technical recent research looked at some people that had the SARS virus (a close relative to this virus) and it was found that while antibodies were no longer existent the subjects has SARS T memory cells 17 years later and there was also some evidence that those cells were also activated by this virus which could be good for immunity/vaccine prospects. I would say there is a good chance of at least some level of longer term protection of some type but more research is needed.

Posted from iPhone



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/28/20 17:39 by lordsigma.

MEKoch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Until we reach herd immunity, we will struggle
> with this virus.  Quarantining susceptible groups
> is the answer (65+ and immune system problems). 
> I suspect most of us by this time have probably
> encountered this virus in some weak form, but not
> enough to knock us flat.  We are building
> antibodies  

So ... Amtrak's primary LD ridership demographic will be locked in at home for several more years ?

SanDiegan Wrote:
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> So ... Amtrak's primary LD ridership demographic will be locked in at home for several more years ?

Even though the Plandemic Covidiots in the USA seem to get all the publicity, there is a huge silent majority that will avoid situations that easily expose themselves to the virus transmission. 

This is affecting all kinds of business and museums.  For example, many restaurants have already closed for good.  Office building real estate is facing an uncertain future.  There have been several threads here about how transportation is affected.

I'm optimistic that a vaccine will be readily available long before "several more years"

Brian

choodude Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SanDiegan Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > So ... Amtrak's primary LD ridership demographic
> will be locked in at home for several more years
> ?
>
> Even though the Plandemic Covidiots in the USA
> seem to get all the publicity, there is a huge
> silent majority that will avoid situations that
> easily expose themselves to the virus
> transmission. 
>
> This is affecting all kinds of business and
> museums.  For example, many restaurants have
> already closed for good.  Office building real
> estate is facing an uncertain future.  There have
> been several threads here about how transportation
> is affected.
>
> I'm optimistic that a vaccine will be readily
> available long before "several more years"
>
> Brian

Exactly. Not good for the future of LD ridership.

The four-year or five-year recovery period for airlines is becoming conventional wisdom. They are laying off workers with no prospect of recalling them for years to come. Many of those people will simply leave the workforce (e.g. retire) or change careers. The airlines are also retiring aircraft, especially older and larger ones. Most of those retired aircraft will be recycled into cans. As to whether four or five years is a realistic prediction for airlines, no one knows. But if anyone in the industry said five-to-ten years, their stock prices would crash below 2008-09 levels (not quite there yet). Game faces, please.

Hotels, resorts, and the rental car companies aren't quite on that bandwagon yet, but I think they're in denial. Cruise ship companies, cruise ship builders, and ports of call are in a world of hurt. 



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/30/20 14:40 by ctillnc.

BOBDRGW Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Regarding herd immunity: A close loved one is
> recovering from the virus which has caused us to
> do a lot of reading on antibodies and T cells
> etc.  From what I understand it appears there are
> insufficient tests to offer conclusions about
> protections from antibodies but initial results
> are showing the antibodies are not long lived. 

Antibodies are not supposed to be long lived, otherwise our lymph nodes would be constantly swollen.

ctillnc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The four-year or five-year recovery period for
> airlines is becoming conventional wisdom. They are
> laying off workers with no prospect of recalling
> them for years to come.

will most be able to find a job with comparable pay?  i doubt it.

> Many of those people will
> simply leave the workforce (e.g. retire) or change
> careers.

again, will they be able to change careers with comparable pay?  i doubt it, ESPECIALLY with the move to automation.

>The airlines are also retiring aircraft,
> especially older and larger ones. Most of those
> retired aircraft will be recycled into cans. As to
> whether four or five years is a realistic
> prediction for airlines, no one knows. But if
> anyone in the industry said five-to-ten years,
> their stock prices would crash below 2008-09
> levels (not quite there yet). Game faces, please.
>
> Hotels, resorts, and the rental car companies
> aren't quite on that bandwagon yet, but I think
> they're in denial. Cruise ship companies, cruise
> ship builders, and ports of call are in a world of
> hurt. 

and more bad economic news............

66
 

PHall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> goneon66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > what if covid-19 "mutates" frequently?
> >
> > 66
>
> No evidence of it doing that so far. 

and you KNOW and can VERIFY this how?

just curious..........

66

goneon66 Wrote:
> > > what if covid-19 "mutates" frequently?
> > > 66
> > No evidence of it doing that so far. 
> and you KNOW and can VERIFY this how?
> just curious..........
>
Viruses undergo mutations because the machinary through with they are reproduced is imperfect; celluar enzymes the use the initial viral RNA to make duplicates. In the case of coronaviruses, the rate of mutation isn't particularly fast and is fairly constant.  Most mutations are innocuous.  In the case of SARS-Cov-2, there are approximately 30,000 bases.  Genetic sequencing of samples has now identified upwards of 40 different genomes, and analysis of infections in the US early on (April-May) revealed thay while the intial cases in the Seattle area bore a genetic sequence associated with the first identified cases in Wuhan, China, the outbreak that raced through the northeast bore the genetic signature of cases that originated in Europe.

Elizabeth