Passenger Trains > Commentary from Evan Stair re: Amtrak/Gardner "strategy"

A "brilliant political operative?"  I don't see it, but I have never met Gardner.

The strategy is obvious and I don't see it is "brilliant" in any manner.  Here is that strategy with pitfalls.

1. Use 720 Strategies LLC to market Amtrak Connects US routes (all about 500-miles or less).

2. Whip up local communities to lobby state legislators for 500-mile or so "corridors."

3. Sweeten the pot with six years of federal matching funds.

3. Collect data showing that 'ridership' is growing on state supported, short distance, corridors while long-distance ridership is declining (using shorted consists, frequent annulments, and degraded service).

4. Plead with Congress to allow long-distance route restructuring / discontinuance.

5. Move the federal dollars used on discontinued long distance routes to the Northeast Corridor and collect Amtrak Conned US funding.

This plan simply won't work.  

1. Few states are going to bite on what are limited term federal funds for passenger trains.  These states consider their Departments of Transportation (highway departments).  After they read the fine print, they will say, "Thanks but no thanks to Amtrak."

2. Congress as of today is still supportive of the National Network, especially the long-distance portion.  Federal code changes have reflected this since Anderson tried to use the Southwest Chief "Bus Bridge."  He failed not just due to his anger, but due to the fact Congress saw right through what was a Gardner / Anderson plan.

3. No Class-1 railroad will allow Amtrak to run mini-Northeast Corridor service on their single-track secondary mainlines.  Gardner and company are banking on the Gulf Coast Limited corridor to be approved, as a test case, to give Amtrak some teeth.  What Gardner underestimates is the resolve of the Norfolk Southern and CSX lawyers to beat down Gardner.  Can Gardner single-handedly defeat these monopolies?

-Evan Stair

Note the sleeper in item No. 4, I read it as: GET RID OF LONG DISTANCE TRAINS AS BEST WE CAN! He's just another crook pocketing our tax dollars and giving nothing in return, an up-front crook, but a crook all the same. 



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 07/30/22 04:39 by RRBMail.

The 1979 "restructuring" resulted in the discontinuance of 5 long-distance trains -
National, Floridian, Lone Star, Champion and Hilltopper.  The 1981 "restructuring"
killed The Cardinal and the 1995 "restructuring" eliminated The Broadway.

The 66 Billion seems like it could be a good thing until you look at history here in the US. If your in the know, your just waiting for the big axe after this money fails to create sustained change. If history is true at Amtrak, dark days will follow this short period of hope.

The 66 Billion will likely be seen a curse in the future...

GenePoon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> 1. Few states are going to bite on what are
> limited term federal funds for passenger trains. 
> These states consider their Departments of
> Transportation (highway departments).  After they
> read the fine print, they will say, "Thanks but no
> thanks to Amtrak."
>


Amtrak's map of future expansion showing all those new corridors is just deceptive marketing. There are a lot of folks falling for the 66 Gigabucks for Amtrak, oh happy day, but hopefully one who don't see thorough it and make a deal with the devil that they don't discover it until later, after they're coimmitted.

TAW

This whole notion that Amtraks expansion plans are a “scam” is asinine. Sorry to burst your bubbles but multiple shorter distance trains are more useful than a once a day LD train. There’s money in the 66 billion for restoration of discontinued LD services. As of now the NCH and Pioneer seem most likely to happen. The states already know the deal with state supported services and they certainly can afford to run at least a few daily trains. Their road budgets are in the billions, they can afford a few million to pay for the running costs.

Oh and Amtrak is gonna win the Gulf Coast case, the class 1’s have frankly presented a pathetic case so far, they’re just straight up liars.

Posted from iPhone

I was saying this when I 1ST saw that crappy map last year, I for one like an expanded Amtrak myself, but not this manuver, and the Gulf Coast Sitation, like I said when CSX gave Amtrak the go to get 1 and 2 back to Florida after they got their line fixed, Amtrak balked, and they wonder why they're having such a hard time with CSX and NS over there!

Wolverine350 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This whole notion that Amtraks expansion plans are
> a “scam” is asinine. Sorry to burst your
> bubbles but multiple shorter distance trains are
> more useful than a once a day LD train.

So are multiple long distance trains per route.

> There’s
> money in the 66 billion for restoration of
> discontinued LD services. As of now the NCH and
> Pioneer seem most likely to happen. The states
> already know the deal with state supported
> services and they certainly can afford to run at
> least a few daily trains.

Yeah...like a car rental company promising free cars with unlimited miles. You go down there and find out that the car is kind of free, but you have to pay a "match" for the "grant" of a car, then the unlimited miles involve you paying for fuel, maintenance, insurance, tires.


> Their road budgets are
> in the billions, they can afford a few million to
> pay for the running costs.


Their big map of planned "expansion" doesn't say a word about improving existing routes, and there are groups jumping through burning hoops to "justify" what was and is now gone.

>
> Oh and Amtrak is gonna win the Gulf Coast case,
> the class 1’s have frankly presented a pathetic
> case so far, they’re just straight up liars.

They have; however, thhat doesn't guarantee that Amtrak wins. A guy I worked with long ago was pronbe to say "Cash talks; bullshhhht walks."

TAW

TAW Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wolverine350 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > This whole notion that Amtraks expansion plans
> are
> > a “scam” is asinine. Sorry to burst your
> > bubbles but multiple shorter distance trains
> are
> > more useful than a once a day LD train.
>
> So are multiple long distance trains per route.
>
> > There’s
> > money in the 66 billion for restoration of
> > discontinued LD services. As of now the NCH and
> > Pioneer seem most likely to happen. The states
> > already know the deal with state supported
> > services and they certainly can afford to run
> at
> > least a few daily trains.
>
> Yeah...like a car rental company promising free
> cars with unlimited miles. You go down there and
> find out that the car is kind of free, but you
> have to pay a "match" for the "grant" of a car,
> then the unlimited miles involve you paying for
> fuel, maintenance, insurance, tires.
>
>
> > Their road budgets are
> > in the billions, they can afford a few million
> to
> > pay for the running costs.
>
>
> Their big map of planned "expansion" doesn't say a
> word about improving existing routes, and there
> are groups jumping through burning hoops to
> "justify" what was and is now gone.
>
> >
> > Oh and Amtrak is gonna win the Gulf Coast case,
> > the class 1’s have frankly presented a
> pathetic
> > case so far, they’re just straight up liars.
>
> They have; however, thhat doesn't guarantee that
> Amtrak wins. A guy I worked with long ago was
> pronbe to say "Cash talks; bullshhhht walks."
>
> TAW

Man you haven't read about the expansions, just looked at the map huh? Current routes like the Cascades, Surfliner, Wolverine, Hiawatha etc would see more round trips per day, but you didn't know that because you just looked at the map and dismissed it.  The report is only 76 pages long, try reading it. 

https://www.amtrakconnectsus.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Amtrak-2021-Corridor-Vision_2021-06-01_web-HR-maps-2.pdf

I’ve long advocated for north-south connecting routes since they virtually don’t exist west of Chicago, but not just KC-OMA or Vegas-LA. Or say DSM-SUX. They need to fill the void of the Twin Star Rocket, or Denver-D/FW-Houston.

That said, this is all a moot point when Amjoke is running consistently 4-12 hr late trains with little amenities and fighting the Class One PSR scam.

Dark days ahead I’m afraid, for the whole damn industry.

Regards.

Posted from iPhone

Wolverine350 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Man you haven't read about the expansions, just
> looked at the map huh? Current routes like the
> Cascades, Surfliner, Wolverine, Hiawatha etc would
> see more round trips per day, but you didn't know
> that because you just looked at the map and
> dismissed it.  The report is only 76 pages long,
> try reading it. 


Try reading H.R.6003 - Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008.

TAW

Wolverine350 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This whole notion that Amtraks expansion plans are
> a “scam” is asinine. Sorry to burst your
> bubbles but multiple shorter distance trains are
> more useful than a once a day LD train. There’s
> money in the 66 billion for restoration of
> discontinued LD services. As of now the NCH and
> Pioneer seem most likely to happen. The states
> already know the deal with state supported
> services and they certainly can afford to run at
> least a few daily trains. Their road budgets are
> in the billions, they can afford a few million to
> pay for the running costs.
>
> Oh and Amtrak is gonna win the Gulf Coast case,
> the class 1’s have frankly presented a pathetic
> case so far, they’re just straight up liars.
>
> Posted from iPhone

The states are not buying it, only the that few were already actively planning like Virginia and 2nd St Paul train. No state will fund the NCH or Pioneer, and they are not on Gardner's fantasy map. Pennsylvania paid NS a $200 million ransom just to put the There Rivers back on an existing route. Don't think anyone else will follow suit.

If you think Ohio, Indiana, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama will ever cough up a penny, I got a bridge to sell you.


Now go back and read the PRIIA Law of 2008 - Title 49 Section 24102. The LD route system is frozen from that point in time.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 07/31/22 04:02 by joemvcnj.

joemvcnj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wolverine350 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > This whole notion that Amtraks expansion plans
> are
> > a “scam” is asinine. Sorry to burst your
> > bubbles but multiple shorter distance trains
> are
> > more useful than a once a day LD train.
> There’s
> > money in the 66 billion for restoration of
> > discontinued LD services. As of now the NCH
> and
> > Pioneer seem most likely to happen. The states
> > already know the deal with state supported
> > services and they certainly can afford to run
> at
> > least a few daily trains. Their road budgets
> are
> > in the billions, they can afford a few million
> to
> > pay for the running costs.
> >
> > Oh and Amtrak is gonna win the Gulf Coast case,
> > the class 1’s have frankly presented a
> pathetic
> > case so far, they’re just straight up liars.
> >
> > Posted from iPhone
>
> The states are not buying it, only the that few
> were already actively planning like Virginia and
> 2nd St Paul train. No state will fund the NCH or
> Pioneer, and they are not on Gardner's fantasy
> map. Pennsylvania paid NS a $200 million ransom
> just to put the There Rivers back on an existing
> route. Don't think anyone else will follow suit.
>
> If you think Ohio, Indiana, South Carolina,
> Georgia, and Alabama will ever cough up a penny, I
> got a bridge to sell you.
>
>
> Now go back and read the PRIIA Law of 2008 - Title
> 49 Section 24102. The LD route system is frozen
> from that point in time.

You know for a 100% fact that states aren’t buying it? Sure pal, sure. You know 100% for a fact that none of these state agencies applied for funds under the FRA’s corridor identification program?

You mention the 200 million Penn is paying to get a second daily Pennsylvanian well under the new funding the Feds would cover most of the that 200 million. How is that a bad deal for the states? The Feds also cover part of the losses during the first 5 years, when the losses would be greatest?

There are powerful senators like Romney and Tester that support the restoration of trains like the Pioneer and NCH. It’s included in the infrastructure bill that Amtrak has to study discontinued routes. Money for restoration is also in the bill. Yeah they aren’t included in the “Map” but neither are the Peoria train and Chicago-Ft Wayne-Columbus train which have already received a good deal of pre planning.

I think, as always there are those (like Gardner) who do not use LD trains and therefore think nobody else should either. 
Maybe the SW Chief "tape" needs to be re-played. Evan knows the story well.

Wolverine350 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> joemvcnj Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Wolverine350 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > This whole notion that Amtraks expansion
> plans
> > are
> > > a “scam” is asinine. Sorry to burst your
> > > bubbles but multiple shorter distance trains
> > are
> > > more useful than a once a day LD train.
> > There’s
> > > money in the 66 billion for restoration of
> > > discontinued LD services. As of now the NCH
> > and
> > > Pioneer seem most likely to happen. The
> states
> > > already know the deal with state supported
> > > services and they certainly can afford to run
> > at
> > > least a few daily trains. Their road budgets
> > are
> > > in the billions, they can afford a few
> million
> > to
> > > pay for the running costs.
> > >
> > > Oh and Amtrak is gonna win the Gulf Coast
> case,
> > > the class 1’s have frankly presented a
> > pathetic
> > > case so far, they’re just straight up liars.
>
> > >
> > > Posted from iPhone
> >
> > The states are not buying it, only the that few
> > were already actively planning like Virginia
> and
> > 2nd St Paul train. No state will fund the NCH
> or
> > Pioneer, and they are not on Gardner's fantasy
> > map. Pennsylvania paid NS a $200 million ransom
> > just to put the There Rivers back on an
> existing
> > route. Don't think anyone else will follow
> suit.
> >
> > If you think Ohio, Indiana, South Carolina,
> > Georgia, and Alabama will ever cough up a penny,
> I
> > got a bridge to sell you.
> >
> >
> > Now go back and read the PRIIA Law of 2008 -
> Title
> > 49 Section 24102. The LD route system is frozen
> > from that point in time.
>
> You know for a 100% fact that states aren’t
> buying it? Sure pal, sure. You know 100% for a
> fact that none of these state agencies applied for
> funds under the FRA’s corridor identification
> program?
>
> You mention the 200 million Penn is paying to get
> a second daily Pennsylvanian well under the new
> funding the Feds would cover most of the that 200
> million. How is that a bad deal for the states?
> The Feds also cover part of the losses during the
> first 5 years, when the losses would be greatest?
>
>
> There are powerful senators like Romney and Tester
> that support the restoration of trains like the
> Pioneer and NCH. It’s included in the
> infrastructure bill that Amtrak has to study
> discontinued routes. Money for restoration is
> also in the bill. Yeah they aren’t included in
> the “Map” but neither are the Peoria train and
> Chicago-Ft Wayne-Columbus train which have already
> received a good deal of pre planning.

Wait until the 5 year deal is expired!

Wolverine350 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It’s included in the
> infrastructure bill that Amtrak has to study
> discontinued routes.

Right. It doesn't say they have to do anything, just study.

They'll study. The report will recommend more study, and as a colleague here says...the band played on.

TAW

ProAmtrak Wrote:

> Wait until the 5 year deal is expired!


They are well aware, plenty of well run states recognize the benefits and can pony up the money to run several trains a day especially when the Feds will cover the most expensive upgrades and repairs.

Wolverine350 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ProAmtrak Wrote:
>
> > Wait until the 5 year deal is expired!
>
>
> They are well aware, plenty of well run states
> recognize the benefits and can pony up the money
> to run several trains a day especially when the
> Feds will cover the most expensive upgrades and
> repairs.

Try telling that to Missouri, you're just as blind as a few other people on this board!

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/06/22 18:25 by ProAmtrak.

The "bonuses" post on 5August suggests that Gardner's strategy is MMMM - Make More Money for Me.