Passenger Trains > article:pre-covid transit ridership may not increase this decade

https://www.enotrans.org/article/transit-ridership-not-expected-to-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels-this-decade/

66

Interesting, I hope they're wrong though, everything's slolwly returning to normal, only bad part is complanies like Amtrak who seem to keep downgrading stuff that is actually gonna bite them in the butt
 

i think there will need to be a significant increase in the demand to live and work in big cities before we start to see pre-covid transit ridership levels..........

66

goneon66 Wrote:
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> i think there will need to be a significant
> increase in the demand to live and work in big
> cities before we start to see pre-covid transit
> ridership levels..........
>
========================

With the current increase in violence and decay in the big cities, and the amount of at-home working, that isn't likely, any time soon. If that means an overall improvement in general well-being, at the expense of transit, so be it.

it's difficult to blame covid anymore..............

66

goneon66 Wrote:
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> it's difficult to blame covid
> anymore..............
>
> 66

Soft on crime policies are more likely the problem. It will take decades to get back to where we were 10 years ago.

Posted from iPhone

Some transit systems have self inflicted wounds.

Like here in LA. LA Metro cut many routes where most of the riders were going.
And wants to make them use other Municipal operators. Or force on to the Rail system.
And or even said people can walk up to one mile to get to Bus Service. 
Which most people don't want. And most people were not given a viable option.

And as Uber, Lyft and other ride share services became available. They seem to not pay attention.
Until it was too late. 

Jerry Martin
Los Angeles, CA
Central Coast Railroad Festival

The commuter rail and commuter buses have been taking the most hits with ridership since covid started and will take years before it returns to a reasonable level. Some commuter rail and commuter bus agencies have their off peak and weekend ridership returning faster than the traditional commuter ridership. Here in NJ, the ridership on the light rails, including the Newark Light Rail, seems to be fine whenever I usually ride it which is during the traditional rush hour times. There is very good ridership on it on weekends. Typically a lot of the commuters on the light rail, subways, and buses work jobs that require them to report in person given that they deal with many confidential documents plus with the public. In addition, those jobs require their workers to not always work the traditional Monday to Friday desk job. Ridership on the NJT trains, in general, is improving, but still more empty seats than pre covid, particularly during the rush hour period.

 

NJT has made it very difficult to commute to Hoboken, which is preferable if one works at Exchange Place or lower Manhattan.
4 pairs of rush hour Montclair trains have been diverted to NYPS. 3 round trip Long Branch -  Hoboken trains still have not returned.  There is no Waterfront Connection service between Newark Penn and Hoboken. It was once well patronized. Force-feeding NYPS is time-consuming and expensive. But NJT is a relic of 1970's commuting patterns. 

The Waterfront Connection trains have been long gone basically. I remember on weekends, every other RVL train continued onto Hoboken. Not sure how strong the ridership was but plenty of people went to Hoboken and Jersey City on weekends and still do. It's just not as many as Manhattan. I can imagine a lot of dissapointment of the weekday rush hour Waterfront Connection trains being pulled from the schedule. More jobs to the Jersey City Gold Coast region and Hoboken will return and those Hoboken to Long Branch trains will hopefully return. Today, NJT Train # 2406, from Raritan to Newark, is scheduled to do the trip from NWK Penn Station to Hoboken Terminal in 21 minutes. The problems with taking the Path from Newark to Hoboken after getting off of a NJT train coming from the west is that you have to change at Journal Sq Station. In addition, those Path trains get very jam packed, even when they depart Newark Penn Station. From Newark Penn Station to Hoboken Terminal, it's 28 to 31 minutes by Path train.

I'm not sure about any NJT MOBO HOB trains getting pulled from the schedule during the pandemic in exchange for Midtown Direct MOBO trains. There is barely any capacity underneath the Hudson River tunnels to add more NJT trains.

In Metro North land, one commuter rail line which should be seeing its ridership continue to improve-it's a branchline-the Waterbury Branch. Last month, the line saw an increase in trains thanks to four new sidings plus an upgraded signaling system. The Waterbury Branch has many passengers who work those jobs that require you not only to show up to your place of employment in person but working strange hours. There are many lower income areas along the branch that have residents who need to use the train to travel within the branch just like a transit bus. The transit bus service along the WBL is spotty in many areas. Thanks to the infrastructural improvements along that branch, passengers now have access to additional trains. Many of those passengers aren't going all the way to NYC. It's a very long commute from Waterbury and many of those stations along the namesake branch to Grand Central. I could see people commuting five days a week to Bridgeport and Stamford.

goneon66 Wrote:
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> it's difficult to blame covid
> anymore..............
>
> 66

Time too play up monkeypox

Posted from iPhone

Doug Wetherhold
Macungie, PA

https://nypost.com/2022/07/24/safety-is-no-1-concern-among-nyc-subway-riders-mta-survey/

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/investigators/septa-survey-what-riders-want-fixed-on-mass-transit-system/3164389/

66

Passfanatic Wrote:
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> Today, NJT Train # 2406, from Raritan to
> Newark, is scheduled to do the trip from NWK Penn
> Station to Hoboken Terminal in 21 minutes.

That train really runs only for the purpose of taking NJT employees to the MMC facility. It is too early for most traditional commuters. 

> I'm not sure about any NJT MOBO HOB trains getting
> pulled from the schedule during the pandemic in
> exchange for Midtown Direct MOBO trains. There is
> barely any capacity underneath the Hudson River
> tunnels to add more NJT trains.

I am sure because I compared the 2019 and 2022 schedules.

Hoboken Trains 206, 210, 214, 216 have become trains NYPS trains 6206, 6210, 6214, 6216. Train 218 was dropped. 
Hoboken Trains 263, 273, 279, 283 have become trains NYPS trains 6263, 6273, 6279, 6283.

How did they get the capacity ? Probably from NEC trains that got the axe in 2018 and 2019 due to their screwing up the PTC installation project that never came back. 

 

I took the UTA Frontrunner and then Trax to the Salt Lake airport for a business trip last month.  I was catching a 5:30 flight so I was a bit on the early side for commute hour.  When I got off of Frontrunner at North Temple to switch to Trax, I was amazed at how crowded the platforms were.  Ridership is still low compared to late 2019 / early 2020, and I haven't seen a report in a while to show what the percentage difference is - last I remember Frontrunner was maybe 60% of pre-pademic ridership.  So that's why it was so surprising to see the crowds.  There was even a decent group that went all the way to the airport.  So I think the trick for transit (which isn't really anything new) is balancing a consistent, all-day schedule on core routes to keep as many of the riders as they can with the limited funds they are going to have.  UTA has one of their 3 annual schedule changes today, and they are cutting less popular bus routes because they don't have the staffing to keep running everything.  So in addition to ridership problems, they are experiencing some of the same staffing problems other places are.

UTA may also be different because Utah has grown so much.  I think it would be more imformative to compare ridership changes in places where the population hasn't grown too quickly recently, I think those are the places where transit ridership may take longer to come back.

Nathan

atsf121 Wrote:
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> I took the UTA Frontrunner and then Trax to the
> Salt Lake airport for a business trip last month.
>  I was catching a 5:30 flight so I was a bit on
> the early side for commute hour.  When I got off
> of Frontrunner at North Temple to switch to Trax,
> I was amazed at how crowded the platforms were.
>  Ridership is still low compared to late 2019 /
> early 2020, and I haven't seen a report in a while
> to show what the percentage difference is - last I
> remember Frontrunner was maybe 60% of pre-pademic
> ridership.  So that's why it was so surprising to
> see the crowds.  There was even a decent group
> that went all the way to the airport.  So I think
> the trick for transit (which isn't really anything
> new) is balancing a consistent, all-day schedule
> on core routes to keep as many of the riders as
> they can with the limited funds they are going to
> have.  UTA has one of their 3 annual schedule
> changes today, and they are cutting less popular
> bus routes because they don't have the staffing to
> keep running everything.  So in addition to
> ridership problems, they are experiencing some of
> the same staffing problems other places are.
>
> UTA may also be different because Utah has grown
> so much.  I think it would be more imformative to
> compare ridership changes in places where the
> population hasn't grown too quickly recently, I
> think those are the places where transit ridership
> may take longer to come back.
>
> Nathan
Thank you Nathan!  Goneon66 seems to play to doomsday scenario over and over again!

think the city centers took a hit, ridership may never return for a long time by which time autonomous cars will take over and perhaps hyperloops

dan Wrote:
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> think the city centers took a hit, ridership may
> never return for a long time by which time
> autonomous cars will take over and perhaps
> hyperloops

That’s hilarious you actually think those things will be reality.

Posted from iPhone

> atsf121 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> > I took the UTA Frontrunner and then Trax to the
> > Salt Lake airport for a business trip last month.
> >  I was catching a 5:30 flight so I was a bit on
> > the early side for commute hour.  When I got off
> > of Frontrunner at North Temple to switch to Trax,
> > I was amazed at how crowded the platforms were.

Glad to hear it.
On my occasional trips to the Washington DC area, I would often get a flight home out of National (DCA) to LAX that left early in the morning.
WMATA (Washington Metro) did not run any weekend trains that were early enough, so I had to rely on shuttles etc.
This was true long before Covid.  Yet the stop at National Airport is one of the most convenient on any transit-served airport in the US.
A missed opportunity by Washington Metro.
 

ALCO630 Wrote:
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> goneon66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > it's difficult to blame covid
> > anymore..............
> >
> > 66
>
> Time too play up monkeypox
>
> Posted from iPhone

We can mostly certainly blame Covid, because it’s completely changed the work structure of most companies. They found out the employees don’t need to come in every day, and many are basically refusing to now. As long as unemployment is super low the employees have the upper hand. Transit is not going to rebound anytime soon, and maybe never. A friend of mine in the western Chicago burbs used to work downtown. For over 20 years he’s been riding Metra. It took him well over an hour each way to get to work. Now his employer has made his job permanently at home, and he never needs to ride the Metra train anymore. He’s delighted, because it’s saving him over two hours a day of wasted time, and misery driving to a station, and riding on a commuter train. For many jobs this is the new normal, so the commuter lines can kiss their business goodbye.

dan Wrote:
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> think the city centers took a hit, ridership may
> never return for a long time by which time
> autonomous cars will take over and perhaps
> hyperloops

If people aren’t coming downtown anymore nobody’s going to spend the money to build a money losing hyperloop. And autonomous cars don’t solve anything except make it easier to drive when you’re senile. Nobody’s gonna keep a massive pool of automobiles around for people to use during 10 rush-hour periods per week, and sit around the rest of the time. That’s the exact reason why commuter trains lose so much money, because you need so much excess equipment that’s only used for 10 brief periods per week.

Posted from iPhone