Passenger Trains > Was airline or highway traffic this far behind 2019?

On Sunday 12/1/19, Amtrak operated 13 southbound and 14 northbound Acela and 23 Regional round trips between NY and WAS. On 11/27/22 there were 8 Acela round trips and 16 northbound and 17 southbound Regional trips. No NJ Transit nor MARC equipment operated in Amtrak service over the holiday.
I wonder if some Acela train sets are still in storage?
Andy

I don't have the data on numbers of airline flights, but a couple of articles about Thanksgiving travel noted that airlines are operating significantly fewer flights than they did in 2019.  Additionally, according to this article, there were 2,000 flight cancellations on Sunday!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/thousands-of-flights-canceled-sunday-after-thanksgiving/ar-AA14CL9I

RuleG Wrote:
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> I don't have the data on numbers of airline
> flights, but a couple of articles about
> Thanksgiving travel noted that airlines are
> operating significantly fewer flights than they
> did in 2019. 

I can't speak for others, but United is flying 98.9 percent of 2019 block hours now. Were it not for personnel constraints (mostly at the regional partners) 2019 block hours would probably be exceeded at this point. The demand is there.

Posted from Android

twropr Wrote:
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> On Sunday 12/1/19, Amtrak operated 13 southbound
> and 14 northbound Acela and 23 Regional round
> trips between NY and WAS. On 11/27/22 there were 8
> Acela round trips and 16 northbound and 17
> southbound Regional trips. No NJ Transit nor MARC
> equipment operated in Amtrak service over the
> holiday.
> I wonder if some Acela train sets are still in
> storage?
> Andy

They ran an extra Acela over a normal Sunday. The Regionals have a higher tendency now to be 9 cars rather than 8. 

ShortlinesUSA Wrote:
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>
> I can't speak for others, but United is flying
> 98.9 percent of 2019 block hours now. Were it not
> for personnel constraints (mostly at the regional
> partners) 2019 block hours would probably be
> exceeded at this point. The demand is there.
>

UA (and JetBlue) are the outliers. The big 6 mainline carriers (regionals excluded) for Novermber are collectively down 3.5% in BH for November with Delta down 4.8%, AA down 3.2% and AS down a whopping 9.1%.

As an example, air demand for Boston - All 3 big NY airports (LGA, EWR, JFK) is down well over 20%.This shift is likely being felt on Acela as well. Travel patterns of today are no longer easily predicted by the travel patterns of the past - travel has fundamentally changed.  

jcoons Wrote:
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> ShortlinesUSA Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > I can't speak for others, but United is flying
> > 98.9 percent of 2019 block hours now. Were it
> not
> > for personnel constraints (mostly at the
> regional
> > partners) 2019 block hours would probably be
> > exceeded at this point. The demand is there.
> >
>
> UA (and JetBlue) are the outliers. The big 6
> mainline carriers (regionals excluded) for
> Novermber are collectively down 3.5% in BH for
> November with Delta down 4.8%, AA down 3.2% and AS
> down a whopping 9.1%.
>
> As an example, air demand for Boston - All 3 big
> NY airports (LGA, EWR, JFK) is down well over
> 20%.This shift is likely being felt on Acela as
> well. Travel patterns of today are no longer
> easily predicted by the travel patterns of the
> past - travel has fundamentally changed.  

Probably because of the higher fares this year

SanDiegan Wrote:
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>
> Probably because of the higher fares this year

While DoT O&D data hasn't been updated for 3Q22 yet, through 2Q22 shuttle markets are pricing well below 2019 and 2018 fare levels for the same quarter. So even with fare stimulation attempts in these city pairs, the markets aren't there. 

BOS-NYC (EWR/LGA/JFK) Net fares
2Q18 153
2Q19 160
2Q20 (COVID)
2Q21 139
2Q22 104

DCA/IAD-NYC Net fares
2Q18 161
2Q19 190
2Q20 (COVID)
2Q21 136
2Q22 152

 

The airlines are off, too.  Fewer flights, to be sure.  If you have flown lately, you know that TSA is fast, and the airports are not packed.

My son and his wife flew from DC to Boston on Sunday.  They were 5 hours late.