Passenger Trains > Ridership Reduction Seen As Permanent

Several comments have been posted regarding the reduction in ridership on the Acela network and commuter railroads.  Here's an article (no paywall) that's from an aviation website but has application to rail passenger service as well.https://viewfromthewing.com/why-business-travel-is-dead-in-one-simple-chart-roundup/

The article is worthless--poor data not well understood.   Mass transit's necessity to move rushhour crowds has for years overburdened both infrastructure and operational costs.    Having the somewhat decreased total ridership  spread more evenly actually will save expenses over the long run.    As a side comment, when the US had vastly more 24-7 factory operations, transit was less concentrated in rush hours.  

Nobody has a crystal ball, including the author. Corporate America is getting increasingly agitated with WFH and telling people to get back to the office because they don't trust their employees.

Business travel may well decline permanently due to Zoom and the realization that all too many meetings are a waste of time or included too many people. 

Speculating to fill column inches....

In the late 1990s, we had a daily production meeting at my last employer. It involved a minimum of 24 professionally salaried people, and more if something was up. It could last for an hour.  We had them because our top executive and the #2 both liked to talk and be seen. Each meeting cost well upwards of $2000, and they were held five days a week. The company is now operating at a much-reduced capacity with about a third of the staff.   I've been out of there for 10 years and never missed it once.

-It seems the Covid problem only affects trains.

Washington Highway De... errrr. Department of Transportation is trying desperately to stop improving the Cascades program. They have decided to start a new 20 year plan, ignoring the 20 year plan they didn't finish. The first step is to study the effects of Covid on ridership (hoping to show that there won't be any ridership). That is something like 5 Megabucks (of Consultant Candy). That will generate five ridership scenarios from which they will pick one, then start a new 20 year plan.

Sound Transit is wringing its hands over ridership loss. Let's see... They concentrate service on 9-5ers working downtown. Folks who need to go through downtown to get to where they need to go (Edmonds - Kent Valley for example), uh... nope. So in the new world, yeah, there are folks who work at home. There are also folks who now go to the office half day, only some days, or some other arrangement. Can they ride the banker's hour service? Nope. We need to take a good look at the service and cut as necessary is what we hear.

Meanwhile, the state just excitedly announced the completion and opening of a 2 Gigabuck convention center in downtown Seattle. Conventions replaced by Zoom? Apparently they don't think so, but the folks won't get there by train because of Covid.

Of course, they are shoveling money from climate emergency funds into UHSR faster than a fireman hand bombing a 2-8-2 with full tonnage on a 2% grade, even though construction can't possibly begin until a couple of decades too late to be of any help in the climate emergency. Apparently the rich folks who will ride that won't be affected by Covid.

Oh, then the latest is that there is an airport emergency around here. The power$ that be want the site selected for a new airport, and they want it NOW. If I remember correctly, the results are due by end of June. There is no discussion of the need for a new airport, just assurances that it is needed immediately and we get to work. Apparently, Covid will not affect airplane riders, just train riders.

Be careful of the spin; you'll get dizzy and fall down.

TAW

BrynMawr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As a side comment, when the US had
> vastly more 24-7 factory operations, transit was
> less concentrated in rush hours.  

• Large city transit systems experienced heavy crowding/overcrowding during the early to mid-twentieth century. 
• With a very few exceptions, commuter rail was and continues to be oriented towards bringing white collar workers from suburbs into central business districts.  In general, they carried many industrial workers because the mills were not located in urban central business districts.  The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority is one of the very few operators of commuter rail of which I am aware that is seriously examining opportunities to pursue other markets.
• In the early twentieth century to mid-twentieth century (in some areas) industrial workers rode streetcars and buses to the mills.  However, as soon as they earned enough money (they can thank the Congress of Industrial Organizations), industrial workers purchased automobiles for commuting to the mills. 

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/07/23 04:05 by RuleG.

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