Western Railroad Discussion > Big Slowdown in Port Traffic?

I'm seeing reports online of incoming container traffic slowing down as much as 50%. What are you all hearing and seeing out there? This certainly has to be affecting trucking and railroads.

Victor Baird



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/25 10:08 by wabash2800.

This weekend's Wall Street Journal had some numbers.  iirc, next week is down 29 percent, and the following week is down 44 percent.  This for Los Angeles/Long Beach arrivals from China.  Not very good for the BNSF and UP Intermodal Business Units, or train counts on the Transcon.  Here's a confirming CNBC article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html  



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/27/25 19:36 by illini73.

There have been several articles in the business press about huge drops in loadings at Chinese ports. Makes sense that there would be a drop off in unloadings in Los Angeles / Long Beach two or three weeks later.

With the on again, off again nature of the tariff threats, few exporters want to get caught with merchandise in transt that has a high tariff placed on it while enroute.  The CEOs of Walmart, Home Depot, and Target visited the White House earlier this week to express their concern that much of their merchandise will be un-sellable with the tariffs applied.

Photographing Chinese shipping containers of late on the chance they could become rare.
Be of good cheer,
—Mac

---

The number of sailings from Asia to the Port of LA/LB is down.  Here is a great video about it.  This guy knows his information. My apologies if the link isn't live.

https://youtu.be/33kfpNiiAmo?si=p8h2432LoCm-nzpb

Seems container traffic is way off out here on the UPRR Overland.  

Stuff comes out of Oakland and maybe Richmond, CA?

Chuck 

Tariffs are paid at port of entry, so a lot of factories abroad (esp china) not shipping, till there is some stability in this situation.
Thats what I hear. 

The combination of threats, the on and then off, and then back on again nature of tariffs makes it hard to plan.

I suspect a lot of domestic 53 foot container boxes are going to be stored inland, away from the ports.

Expect that there will be a lot of concern in the grain and wheat shipping business as tariffs against the US farmers begin to take hold.

Posted from Android

some are predicting a lot of shortages will hit

Bloomberg reporting this morning, with source; Appolo Global Management, a timeline as follows.  Unless a trade deal of some sort is struck this is pretty accurate.  My comments in parentheses:

Late April:  Container Departures slow from China
Mid May:  US Port activity slows (seems like it's already slowing.)
Late May:  US trucking demand declines (and certianly US Railroad container traffic as well)
June:  Empty Shelves

Gonna hit the RR and trucking revenue hard, there will probably be layoffs at the ports.  Upside for shippers is trucking rates will probably decline with oversupply. 
I guess we wait and see how things play out.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/25 07:00 by Jesse6669.

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Expect that there will be a lot of concern in the
> grain and wheat shipping business as tariffs
> against the US farmers begin to take hold.

I don't think there will be a big affect on wheat. The three biggest countries that import US wheat is Mexico, Japan and the Philipines, with Mexico spending 1B USD on wheat imports from the US. 

I would be worried about oilseeds like soybeans, which China imported 12B USD worth of soybeans in 2024.

 

BrandonRC Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lackawanna484 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Expect that there will be a lot of concern in
> the
> > grain and wheat shipping business as tariffs
> > against the US farmers begin to take hold.
>
> I don't think there will be a big affect on wheat.
> The three biggest countries that import US wheat
> is Mexico, Japan and the Philipines, with Mexico
> spending 1B USD on wheat imports from the US. 
>
> I would be worried about oilseeds like soybeans,
> which China imported 12B USD worth of soybeans in
> 2024.
>

Believe I read a news article that China had refused a shipful of Soybeans mid transit so the sellers had to find a new buyer and the ship was turned around mid-ocean headed to Brazil I think it was...

Port of Seattle down for the count:

Tariff tit-for-tat has Seattle waiting for the ships to come in | The Seattle Times

billnict Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Believe I read a news article that China had
> refused a shipful of Soybeans mid transit so the
> sellers had to find a new buyer and the ship was
> turned around mid-ocean headed to Brazil I think
> it was...

Farmers will defniitely feel the pinch this upcoming harvest season. I don't doubt that some farms will go out of business or sell out. 

 

Soybeans are lucrative traffic for the railroad. Whole beans, meal, oil, etc. Organic beans are often packed by the farm, so chain of custody from plate to farm can be tracked.

Organic farm products are often moved as backhaul in export containers.

Posted from Android

COSCO will dock a ship at Seattle in the next 3 hours.
https://www.vesselfinder.com/
—Mac

MacBeau Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> COSCO will dock a ship at Seattle in the next 3
> hours.
> https://www.vesselfinder.com/
> —Mac

Thanks for that info.

Uninformed people think of the farming/ranching industry in singular terms.  While the tariffs may decrease grain exports, it will make grain and soybean products more affordable for American livestock feeders.  Lower feeding costs for livestock will help the livestock industry and lower meat prices for American consumers.  Increase meat demand with lower retail meat prices will lead to more livestock being fed, which will require more livestock feed.  Free markets adjust.   Also, a lot of grain producers have likely already hedged their 2025 harvest on the futures market, so the price that they receive at harvest may already be "locked in."  Generally speaking, American farmers and ranchers are far more sophisticated businesspeople than most "city-slickers" can imagine.  Those family farmers and ranchers--yes, American family farmers and ranchers--are often running multi-million dollar businesses with more technology, knowhow, and business savvy than most non-farmers or non-ranchers could possibly imagine.  I live in ag country and I know a lot of these farmers and ranchers very well.  

WW Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Uninformed people think of the farming/ranching
> industry in singular terms.  While the tariffs
> may decrease grain exports, it will make grain and
> soybean products more affordable for American
> livestock feeders.  Lower feeding costs for
> livestock will help the livestock industry and
> lower meat prices for American consumers. 
> Increase meat demand with lower retail meat prices
> will lead to more livestock being fed, which will
> require more livestock feed.  Free markets
> adjust.   Also, a lot of grain producers have
> likely already hedged their 2025 harvest on the
> futures market, so the price that they receive at
> harvest may already be "locked in."  Generally
> speaking, American farmers and ranchers are far
> more sophisticated businesspeople than most
> "city-slickers" can imagine.  Those family
> farmers and ranchers--yes, American family farmers
> and ranchers--are often running multi-million
> dollar businesses with more technology, knowhow,
> and business savvy than most non-farmers or
> non-ranchers could possibly imagine.  I live in
> ag country and I know a lot of these farmers and
> ranchers very well.  

Excellent points, thanks for sharing them.

The United Soybean Board says 60% of US soy production is sold into the export markets around the world.  If that amount was cut in half, there would be plenty of soy available for US consumption as you note. But the price received would likely be dramtically lower, given the increase in supply. 

Encouraging export customers to seek alternate sources of supply is rarely a good business practice.  US farmers have shown themselves to be reliable suppliers to the world for decades. Being the victim of new tariffs from other countries is not a good development.

https://unitedsoybean.org/issue-briefs/global-markets/

But that also means that the farmers will probably get screwed if their resulting margins become very low or negative. The middlemen, comodity market prices and the final buyers will likely put the squeeze on them.
 

Victor Baird



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/25 17:11 by wabash2800.