Western Railroad Discussion > 5 Waves of Rain to Hit West Coast

If this has already been discussed, sorry. But this could portend some interesting
developments for the FRC and Donner. In the FRC there are two markers along
the highway at Arch Rock, showing how high the water was on 2 prior occasions.
And those marks . . are like 10 feet over the highway. - On Donner . . 10 to 12 foot
snow levels after the storms at higher elevations . . uhhh sounds like rotaries if you
ask me (?) Any way you look at it - I can see Broncos being positioned now, slides, etc.
This rain is going to create some serious problems somewhere for rail traffic. 'Dogh

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/alerts/ca.html#CAZ015.STOSPSSTO.143800



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/15/10 18:39 by Yarddogh.

Those were during El Nino events IIRC. There was a light snow pack in and around Plumas and Sierra Counties and a tropical storm came through and the relatively warm rain melted the snow pack sending millions of gallons into the canyon virtually at once. I think the smaller event was in 1986 and the really big one (during a "Pineapple Express") was in 1997. Not much snow pack up there now and I don't think this storm is as warm as those two events so I doubt if it will be as bad next week as it was in 1997. Most of the higher elevations will get snow next week rather than rain. But I'm sure Mother Nature will unleash her fury and make railroading in the canyon a little riskier than usual.

BRING-IT-ON!

Mr. MRL - I'm not workin' in the rain this winter, har-har!

Look out, NWP

Steve, I tried that line with the last rain and the last earthquake and it didn't even get
a laugh.

A meteorologist friend sent this scary assessment from the Hydrometerological Prediction Center:



CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA...MULTIDAY HVY PCPN EVENT APPEARS IMMINENT WITH

A POTENTIAL ANALOGS TO THE EVENTS OF JAN/FEB 1995 AND 1998. MODEL

QPF OUTPUT OF CMC/ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE INITIALLY

COVERING ALL OF THE STATES BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SHOULD SHIFT

SWD THRU CENTRAL AND THEN SRN CA AND EWD ACROSS AZ. 4-5 MULTIDAY

MODEL OUTPUT OF GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WIDESPREAD LIQUID 6-8 INCHES

OVER THE STATE AND CENTRAL AZ WITH MAXES CENTERED OVER HIGHER

TERRAIN. CMC SEEMS MORE REALISTIC WITH 15 INCH MAX OVER HIGHER

SOCAL TERRAIN. BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND PAST EVENTS EVEN

THE HIGHER MODEL OUTPUT OF CMC IS WELL UNDERDONE. RAINS AND HIGHER

ELEV SNOWS WILL COME IN SURGES WHICH ARE NOT AS WELL TIMED TODAY.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCH LOWER ELEVATION RAINS...WITH 10-20

INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND MORE OVER FAVORABLE HIGHER

TERRAIN. HIGHER ELEV SNOWS FALL MAY RANGE NEAR 10 FEET IN THE

SIERRA AND 4 FEET OVER SOCAL MOUNTANS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND

MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY. COASTAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL

INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS AND HVY SURF. THE VERY

HVY PCPN WILL SHIFT INTO AZ WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE

MOGOLLON RIM. THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

SEE CPC THREATS ASSESSMENTS AND LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE

DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. CONTINUED PAC RECON REQUEST

WITH FLIGHT SCHEDULED OUT OF JAPAN SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN

TUESDAY.

Todd Clark
Canyon Country, CA
Trainorders.com

I'm going to sandbag my patio door. For real!

John Gezelius
Tustin, CA

I was staying in Donner Pass, CA, Xmas to New Year's 1996-97. We had 7' of snow on the ground when the "Pineapple Express" arrived, 1' remained afterwards. Went skiing, even at 7,000', it was half snow, half rain, was all rain the next day. Got back very wet to the lodge, the heat was out, the lights were off, couldn't get out of the parking lot to catch a plane out of Reno (didn't matter because the Truckee River had flooded the airport and closed it), and someone walked off with my skis. Got a ride home and my skis were returned later. We did the high-Sierra camp loop in Yosemite that summer, and any good-sized stream we crossed was scoured out to bedrock by that flooding. The upside was one of the best summers for wildflowers.

If we get a lot of snow, then a warm rain, there could be a repeat!

mapboy

Earlier today someone forwarded me a post identical to the Fullerton guy's post, except it was attributed to some NWS person in Santa Cruz. Let's be ready, but no need to go overboard with the pre-storm hysteria. I live in Plumas County and "survived" the '86 and '97 floods (although I did go into my office in Crescent Mills in a boat in '87), and let's not forget about the big snows of '92-93, when we had at one point 7-8' over a week or two in Greenville and 20'+ in Chester.

The Weather Channel's forecasts do not exhibit the sensationalism of some of these others. The Weather Underground is somewhere in between. In our uncharted part of the world, it's what you see out the window that counts!

Tom Y

icancmp193 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Earlier today someone forwarded me a post
> identical to the Fullerton guy's post, except it
> was attributed to some NWS person in Santa Cruz.
> Let's be ready, but no need to go overboard with
> the pre-storm hysteria. I live in Plumas County
> and "survived" the '86 and '97 floods (although I
> did go into my office in Crescent Mills in a boat
> in '87), and let's not forget about the big snows
> of '92-93, when we had at one point 7-8' over a
> week or two in Greenville and 20'+ in Chester.
>
> The Weather Channel's forecasts do not exhibit the
> sensationalism of some of these others. The
> Weather Underground is somewhere in between. In
> our uncharted part of the world, it's what you see
> out the window that counts!
>
> Tom Y

NWS in Santa Cruz?? Hmmm. Anyway, we live in the central CA coast area, Monterey etc. We have listened to all sorts of dire predictions of humoungous weather systems and storms and etc and guess what, they have all fizzled out somewhere north of here or etc. We have willingly hunkered down in hopes of the rain that we need so badly. Well, guess what. It never seems to happen. We have some great plans for Sunday when REALLY big things are promised and we will be on the road to Palo Alto etc. Let's see.
C.
PS--what or who is NWS in Santa Cruz?

Carol Voss
Bakersfield, CA

Weather forecasters just LOVE big weather.. Just another sunny day
isn't exciting.. So the pre-storm hype is just building some excitement
for weather nuts.
Just like all the railfan pre-game hype and excitement when Amtk operated over
Tehachapi..
Or the pre-game hoopla before the Super Bowl.

Note to Carol...50/50 chance that most of the weather will be south of you.
Besides, you have a west facing beach and hills. Most of the precip will
be on south facing slopes, due to southerly flow ahead of the storm.

National Weather Service, it said, but it was identical to the Cal-Fullerton bulletin.

Tom Y

Well Carol, if your luck is like mine you'd better take your raincoat :) Making great plans is like washing the car, you might as well do a rain dance! From what I have heard wednesday is the day that might be the roughest.

The forecasts seem to be getting more accurate but they do seem to be hedging a little on this series of storms. I hope the rain doesn't all go south. A big snow pack in NorCal would be a good thing as far as California water goes.

sphogger

sphogger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well Carol, if your luck is like mine you'd better
> take your raincoat :) Making great plans is like
> washing the car, you might as well do a rain
> dance! From what I have heard wednesday is the
> day that might be the roughest.

Since I am cold all the time, I never leave home from here in "tucky to the peninsula without showshoes and parka. :-) I'm just saying that for the last 6 months, none of the predicted torrential rains etc. have materialized here where we live.


>
> The forecasts seem to be getting more accurate but
> they do seem to be hedging a little on this series
> of storms. I hope the rain doesn't all go south.
> A big snow pack in NorCal would be a good thing as
> far as California water goes.
>
> sphogger

I say BRING IT ON!! but please, ALSO BRING IT ON HERE IN 'TUCKY!! We need it! and we ain't getting it,
C.
PS---retired farmer husband has a fancy schmancy wireless Davis instrument weather station here in the house and believe me, we can record every inch of whatever you want to record (if we can figure out the manual that comes with it, that is) :-)
As of this writing we have a grand total of .059 inches of rain since January 1. Big deal.
C.

Carol Voss
Bakersfield, CA

One thing about Plumas, and pretty much anywhere in the Sierras, is that things can change in a heartbeat and there are micro-climates all over the place up there. You're right though Tom, what matters is what you see out the window, although it's essential to basically be prepared for anything. Just be glad you aren't in Belden or somewhere between the walls of the canyon with the Feather River licking your front porch!

Like I said, this storm is pretty cold so it looks like there will be a lot of snow up high in Plumas, with the snow level dropping down later in the week. As long as there is no warm rain following it, it's all good. Heaven knows we need the snow pack!

icancmp193 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Earlier today someone forwarded me a post
> identical to the Fullerton guy's post, except it
> was attributed to some NWS person in Santa Cruz.
> Let's be ready, but no need to go overboard with
> the pre-storm hysteria. I live in Plumas County
> and "survived" the '86 and '97 floods (although I
> did go into my office in Crescent Mills in a boat
> in '87), and let's not forget about the big snows
> of '92-93, when we had at one point 7-8' over a
> week or two in Greenville and 20'+ in Chester.
>
> The Weather Channel's forecasts do not exhibit the
> sensationalism of some of these others. The
> Weather Underground is somewhere in between. In
> our uncharted part of the world, it's what you see
> out the window that counts!
>
> Tom Y

I'm with ya John....wouldn't be the first time. Got any extra bags ?? !!

Steve Hazelton
Elk Grove CA

The weathermen in LA are calling for 1 inch on Monday, 1.5 on Tuesday, 1.5 Wednesday, 2 Thursday and 3 Friday. If that happens that would be 9 inches of ran in five days. The burn areas with be in danger if they get .5 an hour. I hope the Surfline doesn't have any problems.

Chris

Mudrock Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The weathermen in LA are calling for 1 inch on
> Monday, 1.5 on Tuesday, 1.5 Wednesday, 2 Thursday
> and 3 Friday. If that happens that would be 9
> inches of ran in five days. The burn areas with be
> in danger if they get .5 an hour. I hope the
> Surfline doesn't have any problems.
>
> Chris
Well the Weatherman is calling for 5 - 10 inches on Monday & 8 - 12 on Tuesday still to early to forcast Thurs - Friday but good chance of 20 - 44 inches of POWDER in the Williams - Flagstaff area of the TRANSCON. Heck who know we make get some Rotary action shots!
Woody+ Pug

<<<he burn areas with be in danger if they get .5 an hour. I hope the Surfline doesn't have any problems. >>>


Help me understand what danger is possible in a burn area with heavy rain. Thanks.

mustraline Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> <<>>
>
>
> Help me understand what danger is possible in a
> burn area with heavy rain. Thanks.

The burned areas lack vegetation and are often on hillsides. Vegetation helps hold earth in place on hills. With no vegetation the earth will slide downhill when it gets wet. Hence we get landslides when the hills get rain. The water just can't soak in fast enough and even if it did, the earth can hold only so much.

John Gezelius
Tustin, CA