Western Railroad Discussion > Some math on new oil trains to CA

Supposed to be 200,000 car loads by 2016.

Divide 200,000 by 365 = 548 cars per day.

If the trains are 50 cars long, that comes out to 11 trains per day.
Any guesses as to the route these trains will use? Also the empty cars going back will add even more traffic.

Adam

I'd say 80-120 is a good guess as far as length so that number is probably closer to 6ish. Likewise, the destinations will be varied, though assuming it's mostly ND oil, they'd be more likely to arrive from the north. As an aside, another site reported that the first oil train came into LA over the weekend. I can't vouch for the validity of that, but it'd be noteworthy for sure if that's the case.

Anyone know if the supposed LA oil can came over Tehachapi?

Posted from Android

Problem is the projects nearest the Bay Area, the hotbed of the anti crude oil by rail crusade, are the one's least likely to make through to the construction stage. I think the chances of the Valero project in Benicia making it to construction stage are less than 50%, although I predict that if that plan gets a "no" from the Benicia city council Valero will try and take the city to court. It could get ugly.

The project over in Pittsburg has an even less chance because it also involves a marine terminal. However, I read that some of the past administrators for the city of Pittsburg have very publicly voiced their approval of the project saying Pittsburg is an industrial city and will always be one. There is someone here on TO that would probably know alot more about this project than me.

I expect the Phillips66 project on the ex-SP Coast Line north of Guadalupe to make it to the construction stage, although it is widely believed Phillips66 may have to scale back the project to get San Luis Obispo County to agree to say "ok". Since the refinery has no way to receive crude oil by marine tanker this project is considered very important to Phillips66. One good sign is the county has already agreed to let Phillips66 increase throughput to deliver more "gas-oil" to their main refinery in Rodeo via pipeline. Whats amazing to me is how few people in the area knew about the pipeline!

The Alon refinery project in Bakersfield is likely to get the go ahead. It's in an oil friendly part of California (although some farmers might say "too friendly") and it would allow the refinery to re-open, thus bringing in more tax revenue for the city as well as jobs. Observers of the California oil scene say that if the project gets the green light it would be a catalyst for other projects around the state.


Allen



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/14 13:02 by bradleymckay.

jc76 Wrote:
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> Anyone know if the supposed LA oil can came over
> Tehachapi?
>
> Posted from Android

This reminds me. I forgot about the Valero project in Wilmington (LA Harbor area). This one is currently having its EIR reviewed. Valero wants to replace the heavy crude oil it receives from around the world with heavy crude from Alberta (some say tar sands crude but Alberta produces two types of heavy crude). Routing would be CP/UP, so yes the possibility of seeing crude oil trains climbing Tehachapi again remains...


Allen

They could also come down the coast as it is not a priority train as others are.

RplusLJetService Wrote:
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> Anyone know what route these will use?
>
> Adam

A few months ago there was a giant article in TRAINS magazine about oil trains that had a map of all the unit oil train routes in North America. It showed a BNSF route into California via the Inside Gateway, albeit marked "test trains". What confuses me is that it also showed "planned" UP oil trains coming down the Oregon Trunk and Inside Gateway. I have heard about occasional BNSF Inside Gateway unit oil moves, but Union Pacific? On the Inside Gateway? Was this a misprint or is Union Pacific actually planning running oil on the Inside Gateway?

Tor in Eugene

One of these days, this could be repeated

---

It'll still be cool, just not as cool seeing it with 6 big EMD's on the front, 6 in the middle and 6 more on the rear...

Owen Hardy
Barrel Arbor, TN

RplusLJetService Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Supposed to be 200,000 car loads by 2016.
>
> Divide 200,000 by 365 = 548 cars per day.
>
> If the trains are 50 cars long, that comes out to
> 11 trains per day.
> Any guesses as to the route these trains will use?
> Also the empty cars going back will add even more
> traffic.
>
> Adam

The oil unit trains we have been seeing on the Oregon Trunk are
generally around 100 cars or more loaded southbound and are split in to
two parts to transit back north.

( UP has northbound length limits on trackage rights that BNSF uses
south of Keddie and possibly between Klamath Falls and Chemult.
This affects all trains not just oil and grain trains. )