Western Railroad Discussion > UP Second Quarter Investors Call

UP had their second quarter investors call today--if you have the time I would recommend listening to the call as it is very well done with slides and commentary.

Synopsis of Call

Revenue for quarter    $4.4 billion  13% below same quarter 2015
Earned 979 million vs $1204 billion
Earnings per share   $1.17 2016    $1.38 2015   15 % decline

Market segements:
Agriculture down 3% Grain storage 30% higher than the past five year average--expect grain to move second half of 2016
Chenicals  down 5%
Automotive down 13%  half of automotive business comes from Mexico
Industrial down 14%
Coal down 21%  Coal plants have on hand 30 days more coal on hand than the past five years
Crude Oil down 46%    at this time last yr 1000 drilling rigs this yr 430
Intermodal down 16% mostly in international---14% fewer intermodal shipments

Average revenue per carload by segment
Agriculture    $ 3692
Auto               2247
Chemicals      3146
Coal               2026
Industrial        3025
Intermodal      1124

Average fuel cost $1.45 per gallon

Labor
2015     48992 employees
2016     43053

Locomotives

7454  2015
6399  2016  with 1700 in storage

Indicated their will not be many new purchases of locomotives in 2017

FYI
Dale Smith
 

Thanks for posting these figures. My friend in Omaha told me that coal just took a big jump in car loadings and autos are up a little too.

Bob Krieger
Cheyenne, WY

Bob3985 Wrote:
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> Thanks for posting these figures. My friend in
> Omaha told me that coal just took a big jump in
> car loadings and autos are up a little too.

Many eastern power plants exited the winter with unusually high inventories of coal on the ground. So, they chose to burn off the stored coal and reduce their incoming orders.

Now that the supplies on the ground are approaching normal levels, they can begin receiving shipments again.  Good for the rails and for the mines.

I'm shocked to realize that half of UP's auto business comes from Mexico. More fodder for The Donald.

kalthoff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm shocked to realize that half of UP's auto
> business comes from Mexico. More fodder for The
> Donald.

We live in the same area, so this explains the numerous Nogales-bound autorack repos through Niles Jct.

TO members should know by now what happens when we as a country give up an industry, like passenger rail equipment manufacturing. It remains to be seen if we have forgotten the lessons of the GM bailout and march toward that destructive path of outsourcing, which is very difficult to recover from. I don't think a political candidate, or opposition of such person makes much difference on the overall scheme of things.

Would be nice to see increase in autorack traffic due to more factories within the 48 states starting operation. For Niles Jct. folks, that's the return of trains like the AWSNP, AOASP, and so forth.

Chemical shipments (except plastics and crude oil) are trending better and probably will for the next 3 months.

Auto shipments should be fine, maybe down a little from last year. 

Grain, as mentioned, will likely do well for the rest of the year as storage space is running out.  Exports should be OK despite the strong dollar.  Big question for UP is will the moves of DDG's to the Port of Oakland expand (hopper car to container for export)...there is potential for 2-3 unit trains per week long term.  This seemingly didn't work out at Yermo, so we'll see if the Port of Oakland deal is better.

Intermodal, especially the international business, is a weak spot.  UP needs to find a way, long term, to do better than they are.  Only area where UP is looking to expand is in the Marion/Dupo/Portand/Seattle and Marion/Dupo/Lathrop/Oakland lanes.  


Allen




 



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/21/16 20:26 by bradleymckay.

kalthoff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm shocked to realize that half of UP's auto
> business comes from Mexico. More fodder for The
> Donald.

It's not that well known but UP moves alot of auto parts to and from Mexico (mostly from).  Auto traffic is down is bit but parts traffic is up significantly.


Allen

A good percentage of the Mexico/USA auto parts business is (was) handled by XPO Logistics (Pacer) in 53' containers on UP trains on the US side if I'm not mistaken.