Western Railroad Discussion > (Oroville Dam) Next time...

From the San Jose Mercury News...

"Feds and state officials ignored warnings 12 years ago"

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/12/oroville-dam-feds-and-state-officials-ignored-warnings-12-years-ago/

Yes now the finger pointing begins. Hopefully a rebuild or redesign of the spillways will not get bogged down in red tape.

its a horrible situation reminds me of the St Francis dam collapse. Mullholland the creator of the LA aquaduct system was called to look at it the day before it collapsed. He said leakage was normal , next day it blew. It was 180 ft tall made of concrete. Water pressure caused water to percolate around the sides causing shifting and cracking. It affected Saugus Nwqhall area , killed several hundred. The actor Harry Carey had a ranch in Saugus . Back then it was still a lot old west. Indians worked for him and he ranched and ran a trading post. He said later several of his Indian workers said we are leaving , dam is going to burst . They were right.Back then the area had only thusands over a big area. Today 200,000 peopel are in a position of not really knowing if they will lose everything. I feel for them Hopefully they can fi it and be sure about it.

You can defer maintenance for a long time, but it often ends badly.  In NJ, many old dams impounded water for lakefront communities. Some were earthen dams, with new layers on top. Hurricane Floyd swept 'em away.

Residents were shocked to find the replacements, to spec, would be in the tens of millions of dollars.

This excellent little article also appeared in the Chico Enterprise-Record, where I saw it. It naturally created a wave of interesting comments, some along the theme of "perhaps the bullet train money could be better spent on maintaining existing infrastructure in the State". I'm not an engineer, but it was pretty easy to predict that anything could happen once the never-tested-in-48-years emergency spillway was put to the test. And, it did.

Tom Y

Years ago, when I was a high school lad, one of our neighbors was a fairly senior engineer with the Bureau of Reclamation.  He and my Dad (and my Dad was both an electrical and mechanical engineer) were talking--the BOR engineer telling my Dad that he would never live immediately downstream from one of the reclamation projects that he helped design.  He explained this shocking revelation, not as a lack of engineering, but one of political expediency overriding good judgment.  It went like this: government reclamation projects (along with lots of other grandiose government projects, like our socialized highway system) were politically justified using "cost/benefit" analysis.  If the estimated benefits outweighted the estimated costs, then the project had a good chance of being funded.  But, the analysis was always tainted because the bureaucracy that would build and operate the project (the Bureau of Reclamation in this instance) would regularly underestimate the true costs and overestimate the true benefits in order to get the project approved and funded.  Of course, that tainted analysis would almost always lead to the project going over budget.  So, often before construction would even begin, and even more often after, designs and specs would be "revised" in order to shave costs.  Did this happen in the emergency spillway design of Oroville Dam?  I don't know, but it certainly could be possible.  

Combined with that tainted process, one has to remember that for three decades after World War II (and still quite often today), there was/is a mentality in this country that nature has been tamed and that engineering and technology can solve everything.  Of course, Mother Nature seems to love to prove that belief to be wrong, often in very dramatic fashion.  So, sadly, the current crisis at Oroville Dam should come as no surprise, and there are probably many more such crises lurking out there in our future.

One other note--fixing problems on existing projects never has the political appeal, either in agencies or in legislative bodies, that chasing after some shiny new project does.  So, as a prime example, we do almost nothing to expand, improve, and rebuild our moribund conventional rail passenger system in this country, but we will squander money to build a half dozen grandiose high-speed rail projects that really do nothing to improve the overall passenger rail system.  While that may seem unrelated to a discussion about a potential dam failure, the same dysfunctional political/bureaucratic mindset permeates both. 

I, too, am reminded of the St. Francis dam and the folly of Mulholland proclaiming it fine only to have it collapse the next day.

Last year I hiked into the hills and found the spot where the dam once stood. I sent the drone up to take some pictures, too. It's just amazing to think what it must have been like when the dam broke.

I think about the collapse and victims each time I cross the Santa Clara River on the 101 freeway between Ventura and Oxnard. I read they were still finding victims along the river years after the collapse.

Posted from iPhone

If you for some reason think that only government some times takes short cuts to save tax payer dollars when public construction projects are built you should see the massive short cuts that private business takes when they build pipe lines that fail, oil refineries that blowup, building that fall down e.g. world trade center, etc.  Remember that big projects like the 19the century railroads, the Golden Gate bridge, Hoover Dam, the California water project, the western water projects, etc. would never have been built by private businesses or without government help. Nothing that has been build in this world by mankind is perfect and sometimes unexpected things happen like jumbo jets full of fuel hitting the world trade center buildings in just the right places.  At this time the Oroville Dam is just fine.  Like Hoover dam and other big dams it would be a little hard to rebuild or replace.  The problem in this case is the normal emergency spill way.  Maybe the private contractor used bad concrete and played games with the concrete tests or more likely something unexpected happened and it took rain and lots of water to discover there is problem.  Question how many times times has this spill way been used in the almost fifty years life of the Oroville Dam?  Lastly please note that there are concrete bridge back east that were build by the railroads in the early part of the 20th century that are still doing their job just fine.

walstib Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I, too, am reminded of the St. Francis dam and the
> folly of Mulholland proclaiming it fine only to
> have it collapse the next day...
> I think about the collapse and victims each time I
> cross the Santa Clara River on the 101 freeway
> between Ventura and Oxnard. I read they were still
> finding victims along the river years after the
> collapse.

My mom lived in the Oxnard Plain and her family went up to the Santa Clara River near what's now U.S. 101 after they heard about the dam failure.  By that time it was high water and a lot of debris.

mapboy

To reply, neither the regular spillway or the emergency spillway have EVER been used prior to last weekend's use of both of them.   Since the Orovile Dam construction was completed in the late 1960's, the lake has never been at the water level experienced this weekend.

It's unfortunate the water managers at the dam did not increase by enough the flow of the regular releases from the dam inself prior to this weekend to keep the water level in the lake was rising as far as it did.   You can certainly now expect them to do so over the next several months to prepare for the spring snowmelt.

The regular spillway has been in use for years.

It's the emergency spillway that had never been used before this past weekend.

Posted from iPhone

DWGOLDE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you for some reason think that only government
> some times takes short cuts to save tax payer
> dollars

How wrong you are. They allow shortcuts not to save tax payer dollars, but mitigate political fallout from costs.

> when public construction projects are
> built you should see the massive short cuts

Evidence of "massive" short cuts?

> that
> private business takes when they build pipe lines
> that fail, oil refineries that blowup, building
> that fall down e.g. world trade center, etc.

There goes more of your credibility. The twin towers of the World Trace Center did not fall down due to any construction short cuts.

>  Remember that big projects like the 19the
> century railroads, the Golden Gate bridge, Hoover
> Dam, the California water project, the western
> water projects, etc. would never have been built
> by private businesses or without government help.

Um, you put a period there but did not say anything.

> Nothing that has been build in this world by
> mankind is perfect and sometimes unexpected things
> happen like jumbo jets full of fuel hitting the
> world trade center buildings in just the right
> places.  

Um, yeah.

> At this time the Oroville Dam is just
> fine.  

No one said it wasn't. It is the main and emergency spillways that are problematic at this time, not the dam itself.

> Like Hoover dam and other big dams it
> would be a little hard to rebuild or replace.

Um, OK.

>  The problem in this case is the normal emergency
> spill way.  Maybe the private contractor used bad
> concrete and played games with the concrete tests
> or more likely something unexpected happened and
> it took rain and lots of water to discover there
> is problem.  

Um, I guess you havn't bothered to read what the problem is. The problem it is having NOW was clearly identified in 2005 but the idea of it was rejected because, gee golly willikes, those that would have to pay for it said no. But thanks for playing. Oh and uh the problem: it is a design flaw, not any construction short cut.

> Question how many times times has
> this spill way been used in the almost fifty years
> life of the Oroville Dam?  

0, nada, nilch, never.

> Lastly please note
> that there are concrete bridge back east that were
> build by the railroads in the early part of the
> 20th century that are still doing their job just
> fine.

What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

Voters demand little of their local and state politicians, much less of the authority folks who run the dams or prisons or hospitals. Until something awful happens. 

Happens all the time. The Boston Marathon bombers ("they were on our radar, but we lost track of them") or preventive maintenance which never got done (I-35 bridge in Minnesota and many others).

walstib Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The regular spillway has been in use for years.
>
> It's the emergency spillway that had never been
> used before this past weekend.

This is correct...and when looking at the torent being released by the regular spillway, remember this.  Its current releasing at 100,000 CFS.  Its highest output was 1997 when it released 160,000 CFS.  Its maximum output is an amazing 250,000 CFS, so that means its only working at 40% of capacity right now.  I can only imagine that the auxiliary (emergency) spillway was only ever intended to be used in a dire emergency...like when the regular speedway has been damaged.

They wouldn't be able to stop using the regular speedway until mid-summer, probably around July 1.  Then it has to be ready for use in October for the next storm season.  My guess is they will start construction on a new spillway immediately, on a slightly different alignment.  Thus allowing them to concenrate on tying new to old during that limited late summer downtime.

FWIW, Hoover Dam had SIGNIFICANT problems -
Look at  [b]Hoover Dam: Grout Curtain Failure[/b]
 

Right On  . . . ..

Robert McCreary
Myrtle Creek, OR

I don't think that only government sometimes take short cuts.  I think that people are people, mostly good and some bad, all imperfect, no matter where they are, government or private.

The question is what happens after people take shortcuts.  Did anyone go to jail after the Enron scandal?  (Answer:  yes)  Did anyone go to jail after the Deepwater Horizon spill?  (Answer:  yes)
Did anyone go to jail when Veteran's Administration officials set aside certain individuals and left them to die because treating them would have hurt their statstics?  (Answer:  no)  Did anyone go to jail when the EPA released toxic waste in Colorado recently?  (Answer:  no)   Will anyone go to jail for not fixing the apparent design flaw in the Oroville dam because it would cost too much?  (Answer:  probably not.)

Time to pay the cleanup costs?  Private company who caused the problem pays, or their insurance pays, up until they go bankrupt.  Government agency who caused problems gets more of your tax money to cover the mess, then argues that they need a bigger budget to make sure they don't screw up again.

When private individuals or companies do things, the government can police them appropriately.  When the government does things, who does the policing?

That is a brief rundown of (one of the reasons) why it's usually best that doing things be left to the private sector.  Thanks for asking.

DWGOLDE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you for some reason think that only government
> some times takes short cuts to save tax payer
> dollars when public construction projects are
> built you should see the massive short cuts that
> private business takes when they build pipe lines
> that fail, oil refineries that blowup, building
> that fall down e.g. world trade center, etc.
>  Remember that big projects like the 19the
> century railroads, the Golden Gate bridge, Hoover
> Dam, the California water project, the western
> water projects, etc. would never have been built
> by private businesses or without government help.
> Nothing that has been build in this world by
> mankind is perfect and sometimes unexpected things
> happen like jumbo jets full of fuel hitting the
> world trade center buildings in just the right
> places.  At this time the Oroville Dam is just
> fine.  Like Hoover dam and other big dams it
> would be a little hard to rebuild or replace.
>  The problem in this case is the normal emergency
> spill way.  Maybe the private contractor used bad
> concrete and played games with the concrete tests
> or more likely something unexpected happened and
> it took rain and lots of water to discover there
> is problem.  Question how many times times has
> this spill way been used in the almost fifty years
> life of the Oroville Dam?  Lastly please note
> that there are concrete bridge back east that were
> build by the railroads in the early part of the
> 20th century that are still doing their job just
> fine.

I got interested in the area after reading about the founding of Newhall and all the movie cowboys that worked and lived there. There used to be an excellent history show on the local station that visited all the spots. I actually became aquainted with Harry Carry Junior  . He was Sr.s son and made lots of movies with John Wayne as did his dad. I saw him doing an interview when they restored the old ranch and made it a historic spot. I emailed him and asked a few questions and we wound up email buddies until his death. Lovely man  and the last link to a way of life in that area  that still had some attachment to original settling and old west. H eremembered the dam very well and he mentioned the Indians who were at the ranch and why they left. Ranch took a ig hit from the water if I remember right but didnt destroy the house.

Just a question when has the private sector build and funded large dams like Oroville and Hoover or any other large construction projects that are for public good?  

Just a side note almost all publicity funded contraction projects are actually built by private construction companies.  The biggest short coming that I have seen and experience with private construction companies is that some have excellent project management skill, for example the Turner Construction Company and the project management team at Walt Disney Imagineering during the 1980's and 1990's, but where others like the project managers on the Metro subway system in Los Angeles in 1990's were terrible.  

How many people went to jail for falsifying loans to sub-prime home owners, or issuing phony appraisals, or issuing bogus foreclosures, all of which was stuck to the taxpayers?

How many people ran a company which specialized in foreclosures, many of them n violation of law, and then became Treasury Secretary?  As of yesterday, one.