Western Railroad Discussion > History Repeats Itself

The current situation GE transportation finds itself reminds me a lot of where EMD stood in the 1980's when it was surpassed by GE. From about 1964 to 1980 railroads couldn't buy enough of EMD's latest and greatest. GE was there to pick the orders that EMD was too busy to get too, and Alco simply vanished. But come the 80's EMD had followed up the best locomotive ever (SD40-2) with a dud (GP50/SD50), and the whole new locomotive market virtually collapsed with the 1980 recession. Railroads were already storing new power before it even entered service, therefore was no need for them to buy new power with just a few exceptions. EMD owner General Motors was also in dire straights and went looking for a buyer for it's locomotive division. Without the support of the parent company, morale in general was in the pits which didn't help sales or service. Meanwhile LaGrange took a hit when final locomotive production was consolidated at London, Ontario by the end of the Decade (kinda like moving production from Erie to Fort Worth).

The culture at GE was quite different at that moment. They were in the midst of incorporating a host of new technology into their locomotives with the full backing of the parent company to create the Dash-8 line of locomotives. Where the Dash 7-line was still as troubled as the original U series line of locomotives, the Dash-8 series sought to fix those short comings, and by and large did do just that. The troubles at EMD must have looked like blood in the water at GE at that moment, and by the end of the decade GE was the leader in the new locomotive market. Furthermore EMD's downsizing in the 1980's really hurt it when locomotive orders started pouring in in 1993. BN's record order for SD70MACs tied up most of the shop capacity, and EMD had a hard time filling orders for other railroads. GE and even MK Rail were there to pick up the slack.

For the past couple years, the lead on Tier 4 technology that GE enjoyed seemed to give it a very strong hand going forward. But, the fuel inefficiency and other issues related to tier 4 locomotives have caused Class one railroads to sour on those locomotives, and they are resorting to rebuilding older power instead. Besides, there are plenty of road locomotives in storage on all the major railroads as it is. The only new locomotives that seem to be made now are Tier 3 "credit" locomotives. If Tier 4 mandates get rescinded and GE Transportation is still in the doldrums looking for a taker, CAT-backed EMD could be poised to take the lead in the locomotive world again. Only time will tell.

Ted Curphey
Ontario, OR



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 11/17/17 05:55 by funnelfan.

As Yogi said, " It's deja vue all over again".

Strange days indeed...but if Tier 4 stays I wonder if anyone would want GE Transportation if nobody want a Tier 4 engine? To say nothing of EMD while the have their Tier 4 engine working I don't see them exactly tearing up the rails. Stupid emission rules are going to fix this country so we can't move goods to market!

engineerinvirginia Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Strange days indeed...but if Tier 4 stays I wonder
> if anyone would want GE Transportation if nobody
> want a Tier 4 engine? To say nothing of EMD while
> the have their Tier 4 engine working I don't see
> them exactly tearing up the rails. Stupid emission
> rules are going to fix this country so we can't
> move goods to market!

What do you mean 'if nobody wants tier 4' - they've sold hundreds of them already!? As keeps getting stated in other sections of this forum - the reason for relatively low numbers of locos being bought currently isn't tier 4.

 Why in the world does anyone think Tier 4 will be rescinded?  For all this talk about rebuilds, outside of NS and some CP units (which are more like a heavy overhaul-catch up) who is rebuilding large numbers of locomotives?

After invest BILLIONS in the technology, do you think GE (or EMD) want to drop it?  They need to sell units to recover it.  They are going to charge somebody for the cost of development.

I don't even hear the carriers lobbying for it to be rescinded.  Tier 4 is not going away.. 

NYSWSD70M Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  Why in the world does anyone think Tier 4 will
> be rescinded?  For all this talk about rebuilds,
> outside of NS and some CP units (which are more
> like a heavy overhaul-catch up) who is rebuilding
> large numbers of locomotives?
>
> After invest BILLIONS in the technology, do you
> think GE (or EMD) want to drop it?  They need to
> sell units to recover it.  They are going to
> charge somebody for the cost of development.
>
> I don't even hear the carriers lobbying for it to
> be rescinded.  Tier 4 is not going away.. 

We choose to entertain the idea, because keeping it wrinkles our worldview. Treehuggers have had their way too long, and we are taking over!

engineerinvirginia Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYSWSD70M Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >  Why in the world does anyone think Tier 4
> will
> > be rescinded?  For all this talk about
> rebuilds,
> > outside of NS and some CP units (which are more
> > like a heavy overhaul-catch up) who is
> rebuilding
> > large numbers of locomotives?
> >
> > After invest BILLIONS in the technology, do you
> > think GE (or EMD) want to drop it?  They need
> to
> > sell units to recover it.  They are going to
> > charge somebody for the cost of development.
> >
> > I don't even hear the carriers lobbying for it
> to
> > be rescinded.  Tier 4 is not going away.. 
>
> We choose to entertain the idea, because keeping
> it wrinkles our worldview. Treehuggers have had
> their way too long, and we are taking over!

There are better battles to fight.  Who even thinks about the emissions technology on a (gasoline) auto anymore.  It is part of the landscape.  The primary issue with diesel is the late start but it can get there too.  The shorter development period has made it more painful to be sure.  However, it is not impossible.

Defending a truly clean diesel is a fight I will take on.  There is no reason to ban the technology as some would.  Defending a 6V-71 powered Detroit Diesel bus for everyday use in the modern age is not one I am willing to take on, however.  Not when the goal is achievable. 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/17/17 08:46 by NYSWSD70M.

RR Industry has much bigger problems coming at them with rapid pace of technology. Tesla Truck could be a real game changer and Musk referenced Rail in presentation. J B Hunt has already placed orders. It is not if but when.

Don G

As someone who was around before "stupid emission rules" were enacted, I would suggest you be careful what you wish for. In fact, emissions have been rising in the LA area the last two years.
I love steam engines but you can't believe the black crud they filled this town's air with.
Smog was discovered in the LA area in the '40s when the tire companies discovered that tires and other rubber products didn't last as long there as they did in places with cleaner air.
Think what that did to your lungs.
Tehachapi Pass east of the Monolith Cement Pant was covered with thick gunk blowing out to the desert.

Bill Deaver
Tehachapi, CA

exhaustED Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> What do you mean 'if nobody wants tier 4' -
> they've sold hundreds of them already!? As keeps
> getting stated in other sections of this forum -
> the reason for relatively low numbers of locos
> being bought currently isn't tier 4.

It's certainly a large part of the reason. The lack of fuel efficiency, high maintenance and anticipated short life span of Tier 4 locomotives is killing sales of these new locomotives while orders for rebuilt locomotives are expanding. Just today someone send me a photo of a recently rebuilt BNSF SD9! All the major railroads with the exception of CSXT are rebuilding lots of older power currently.

Ted Curphey
Ontario, OR

For use on the road or for a museum? I'd like to see the photo of the rebuilt SD9.

From the Wikipedia entry on Diesel Exhaust....


Emissions from diesel vehicles have been reported to be significantly more harmful than those from petrol vehicles.[38][better source needed] Diesel combustion exhaust is a source of atmospheric soot and fine particles, which is a component of the air pollution implicated in human cancer,[39][40] heart and lung damage,[41] and mental functioning.[42] Moreover, diesel exhaust contains contaminants listed as carcinogenic for humans by the IARC (part of the World Health Organization of the United Nations), as present in their List of IARC Group 1 carcinogens.[7] Diesel exhaust pollution is thought[by whom?] to account for around one quarter of the pollution in the air in previous decades,[when?] and a high share of sickness caused by automotive pollution.[43][better source needed]

Diesel exhaust is a Group 1 carcinogen, which causes lung cancer and has a positive association with bladder cancer.[2][3][4][5][6] It contains several substances that are also listed individually as human carcinogens by the IARC.[7]

funnelfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> exhaustED Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > What do you mean 'if nobody wants tier 4' -
> > they've sold hundreds of them already!? As
> keeps
> > getting stated in other sections of this forum
> -
> > the reason for relatively low numbers of locos
> > being bought currently isn't tier 4.
>
> It's certainly a large part of the reason. The
> lack of fuel efficiency, high maintenance and
> anticipated short life span of Tier 4 locomotives
> is killing sales of these new locomotives while
> orders for rebuilt locomotives are expanding. Just
> today someone send me a photo of a recently
> rebuilt BNSF SD9! All the major railroads with the
> exception of CSXT are rebuilding lots of older
> power currently.

Do you have figures to back up the reduction in fuel efficiency? Do you have figures to back up and quantify the cost of increased maintenance? Where's the proof that life span of the locos is reduced? Or do you just have hearsay and conjecture?
There are currently over 1000 tier 4 main line freight locos in operation with BNSF, NS, CSX, UP and CN...does that look like the railroads are avoiding tier 4?

NYSWSD70M Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  Why in the world does anyone think Tier 4 will
> be rescinded?

Because Tier 4 goes beyond the locomotive world. Some industries like the school bus industry are being crippled by the emissions standards as the buses spend more time in the shop than on the road. There is a lot of call to roll back the standards right now, but the Trump administration is distracted at the moment trying to pass a tax bill.

Ted Curphey
Ontario, OR

exhaustED Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There are currently over 1000 tier 4 main line
> freight locos in operation with BNSF, NS, CSX, UP
> and CN...does that look like the railroads are
> avoiding tier 4?

While the railroads initially bought quantities of the Tier 4 units, they have soured on them and cut orders or are only buying "credit" Tier 4 units. How many of those Tier 4 units you cite are really Tier 3 units in disguise as "credit" locomotives? I know the recent CN order was all "credit" tier 4 units.

Ted Curphey
Ontario, OR

funnelfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> exhaustED Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > There are currently over 1000 tier 4 main line
> > freight locos in operation with BNSF, NS, CSX,
> UP
> > and CN...does that look like the railroads are
> > avoiding tier 4?
>
> While the railroads initially bought quantities of
> the Tier 4 units, they have soured on them and cut
> orders or are only buying "credit" Tier 4 units.
> How many of those Tier 4 units you cite are really
> Tier 3 units in disguise as "credit" locomotives?
> I know the recent CN order was all "credit" tier 4
> units.

In order to have a Tier 4 credit locomotive you would have had to purchase an actual Tier 4 locomotive.

funnelfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> exhaustED Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > There are currently over 1000 tier 4 main line
> > freight locos in operation with BNSF, NS, CSX,
> UP
> > and CN...does that look like the railroads are
> > avoiding tier 4?
>
> While the railroads initially bought quantities of
> the Tier 4 units, they have soured on them and cut
> orders or are only buying "credit" Tier 4 units.
> How many of those Tier 4 units you cite are really
> Tier 3 units in disguise as "credit" locomotives?
> I know the recent CN order was all "credit" tier 4
> units.

You are ill-informed. If you buy tier 4 credit units you also have to buy an equal number of actual tier 4 units. So no one has stopped buying tier 4s to buy tier 4 credits 'instead'. It's not possible.
Also, not one of those tier 4 units that I cite are credit locos. Over 900 of them are ET44ACs and ET44C4s. The remainder are SD70ACe-T4s.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 11/17/17 10:57 by exhaustED.

funnelfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYSWSD70M Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >  Why in the world does anyone think Tier 4
> will
> > be rescinded?
>
> Because Tier 4 goes beyond the locomotive world.
> Some industries like the school bus industry are
> being crippled by the emissions standards as the
> buses spend more time in the shop than on the
> road. There is a lot of call to roll back the
> standards right now, but the Trump administration
> is distracted at the moment trying to pass a tax
> bill.Do you have anything to back that up?  I am on a school board and it is news to me.  Since Tier 4 has been around since 2010, 100% of our busses are Tier4's.  I am not saying they haven't had some issues but crippling?  Some districts with Tier 3 Caterpillars had very serious issues - not Tier 4.  There was even a lawsuit against Blue Bird over these Cat's.

I have yet to see one proposal to roll back Tier 4 which has been around since 2010.  Truck diesels of all sizes are getting better every year and no one in that industry is lobbying for their roll back.  The most movement I see is the continued simplification of the technology.

 

funnelfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYSWSD70M Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >  Why in the world does anyone think Tier 4
> will
> > be rescinded?
>
> Because Tier 4 goes beyond the locomotive world.
> Some industries like the school bus industry are
> being crippled by the emissions standards as the
> buses spend more time in the shop than on the
> road. There is a lot of call to roll back the
> standards right now, but the Trump administration
> is distracted at the moment trying to pass a tax
> bill.

Not entirely, recently Scott Pruitt from the EPA was discussing revising a ruling for Class 7/8 truck "glider kits".
Basically trying to roll back the emissions laws.
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-08/documents/hd-ghg-phase2-fitzgerald-gliders-ltr-2017-08-17.pdf

However, I don't see any EPA changes coming to rail. I don't see the railroads making alot of noise about rolling back Tier 4.
If anything the truck industry would change first before rail. The largest opportunity from this administration/EPA is delaying Tier 5 for
rail until maybe the next presidency. Most likely Tier 4 here to stay for possibly 10 years or more.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/17/17 10:34 by Entropy.

funnelfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> exhaustED Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > What do you mean 'if nobody wants tier 4' -
> > they've sold hundreds of them already!? As
> keeps
> > getting stated in other sections of this forum
> -
> > the reason for relatively low numbers of locos
> > being bought currently isn't tier 4.
>
> It's certainly a large part of the reason. The
> lack of fuel efficiency, high maintenance and
> anticipated short life span of Tier 4 locomotives
> is killing sales of these new locomotives while
> orders for rebuilt locomotives are expanding. Just
> today someone send me a photo of a recently
> rebuilt BNSF SD9! All the major railroads with the
> exception of CSXT are rebuilding lots of older
> power currently.

Overhauled is not rebuilt. MPI laid off people earlier this year.  I have not heard about a recall.  Name examples of all these rebuild programs.  UP's SD40N's don't count as these are not Main Line Heavy haul equivalents (4000-4500 hp) and were going on before Tier 4.
My list:

NS
SD70Acc
SD70Acu
SD80Acu
AC44C6

CP
SD60 Overhaul
AC4400CW Overhaul
Maybe SD70Acu's

What other ones are out there?  Additions and corrections welcomed.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/17/17 10:46 by NYSWSD70M.