Western Railroad Discussion > OT: California - from fire to rain?

Everybody in California, especially central and southern California, should keep updated on the changing weather pattern over the next 5 days.  While confidence is still not near 100% there is growing evidence that rain will finally return to CA next week (not at all unusual for the rainy season to start around Thanksgiving).  Yesterdays new Climate Prediction Center medium range forecasts, for the second half of the month, show greater confidence for rain starting next week with continuing high chances for rain after next week.  The outlook for November 22 - 28 is the most concerning for central and southern CA:  a strengthening sub-tropical jet stream, which COULD bring in substantial moisture from the southwest, under the right conditions.  These types of sub-tropical jet stream situations are sometimes very difficult to forecast...but
this is your heads up.

Here's the link to the Climate Prediction Center:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Click on the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks.


Allen



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 11/15/18 13:12 by bradleymckay.

CalFire released a video update of the Camp fire this morning and said confidence is building for moisture in the forecast later this week/early next week. If we get heavy rain this spring though, mudslides in the burn areas will be the next big issue.

The forecast for SoCal is for light to moderate rain. Let's hope the rain reads the forecast or they'll be real busy cleaning up the mud.
Too many people still have nightmares about the Montecito slide last winter.

They only have two seasons in California...  Fire season and mudslide season.  All of that land that has had the vegetation burnt away now has nothing to hold it together.  Enough rain to dampen the fires would be nice, but not enough to cause a slide.

John

PHall Wrote:
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> The forecast for SoCal is for light to moderate
> rain. Let's hope the rain reads the forecast or
> they'll be real busy cleaning up the mud.
> Too many people still have nightmares about the
> Montecito slide last winter.

Just to clear this up a bit- what we had in Montecito was actually more a downpour/flash flood situation, not really a slide in the sense a hillside came down.   But no less terrifying to be sure.
SR

And now a precursor to an El Niño winter:

https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/red-crab-beach-lovers-point-pacific-grove-el-nino-13396006.php

wa4umr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They only have two seasons in California...  Fire
> season and mudslide season.  All of that land
> that has had the vegetation burnt away now has
> nothing to hold it together.  Enough rain to
> dampen the fires would be nice, but not enough to
> cause a slide.
>
> John

My aunt lives in Truckee where the joke is that the only two seasons are winter and road construction.

i think there was a slide or washout on Cajon about 1978 or 1979 that claimed a crew members  lives an a Santa Fe autorack train if any one can recall this accident  the weather was similar at that time/

bakersfielddave Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> i think there was a slide or washout on Cajon
> about 1978 or 1979 that claimed a crew members
>  lives an a Santa Fe autorack train if any one
> can recall this accident  the weather was
> similar at that time/

https://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?11,1705145

bakersfielddave Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> i think there was a slide or washout on Cajon
> about 1978 or 1979 that claimed a crew members
>  lives an a Santa Fe autorack train if any one
> can recall this accident  the weather was
> similar at that time/

That was Santa Fe 5037 East, symbol 3282F1, derailed due to a washout just east of Summit on 3/6/78.  Two deadheading brakemen were killed: they were riding in a trailing unit.  The headend crew was hurt but not severely.  It was not raining at the time of the derailment.  

It should be noted that the heavy rains of early 1978, which contributed to that March derailment, were not caused by an El Nino.  


Allen

I'm monitoring several local reports and it is sounding more like light to maybe medium rain next week.   After that, anything can happen.    For the most part, the last five years have been more of heavy-handed predicting (the sky is falling), with very little actual rain.   But of course this is a super serious situation with the recent fires, and every possible chance of rain needs to be watched and taken seriously.   Last year's Montecito incident is a good example of potiential disaster.   
 

Fizzboy7 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm monitoring several local reports and it is
> sounding more like light to maybe medium rain next
> week.   After that, anything can happen.   
> For the most part, the last five years have been
> more of heavy-handed predicting (the sky is
> falling), with very little actual rain.   But of
> course this is a super serious situation with the
> recent fires, and every possible chance of rain
> needs to be watched and taken seriously.   Last
> year's Montecito incident is a good example of
> potiential disaster.   

Yes the forecast might be overdone but any potential weather system associated with the sub-tropical jet has to be taken seriously because of higher precipitable water values in the atmosphere.  And there looks to be a split polar jet stream developing and any split could enhance the sub-tropical jet.  This type of jet coupling is notorious for causing heavy rain in California, usually due to rapid storm development prior to reaching the coast. Any system associated with the sub-tropical jet is more difficult for computer models to handle, making forecasting tricky which is why forecast confidence is still on the low side this far out.  


Allen

I wouldn't get too excited about rain prospects next week.  We've been promised rain events many times in the past, only to come up short, sometimes being left totally high and dry.  I'm hopeful, but I won't be convinced until I see the drops falling.

The NWS has, or had, an interesting read on the whole El Nino/La Nina topic. One of the indicators of being in one of those winters is the very fact that the forecasts don't playout the way it looks they should.

Their present theory is based on matching Ocean temperatures with winter events of previous years, strictly imperical data and comparisons.