Western Railroad Discussion > CPKC traffic projections

Not sure if this has been discussed recently, but I came across a master operating plan for the new CPKC railroad with projected line segment growth by 2027. There's lots to see here if you haven't seen it yet, but the one projection that stood out the most to me is trains per day on the KC-Pittsburg mainline, which currently shows 14 a day to rise to 29 a day by 2027. I know these corporate-generated merger benefits rarely pan out, but how much funny stuff do you have to smoke to reach that conclusion? Am I missing something, and is this really feasible? I mean, the worst weather dude makes better projections than this...

https://cp-kcsmergereis.com/docs/CP-KCS%20Response%20to%20Info%20Request%201%20Attachments%20Master%20Segment%20Table.pdf

JG

Maps with traffic projections would have been easier to digest...

Victor Baird



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/23 21:54 by wabash2800.

wabash2800 Wrote:
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> Maps with traffic projections would have been
> easier to digest...
>
> Victor Baird

Those are here: https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/DCMS_External_PROD/1652793885016/304552.pdf (skip to page 183 for the good stuff)

-Alan-

There's some discussuion of CPKC traffic numbers previously on TO but this laptop won't post the usual link.  Search TO for:
CP-KCS merger plan traffic numbers here 

mapboy

Akin to the prediction of 22 trains/day on the KC-Chicago line.  This is a line that sees maybe 8 trains on the very busiest day.  I wonder where those 14 trains worth of traffic are going to materialize from.

Andy

They won't if railroads continue to ignore customer service.

Well, for one thing, CPKC will offer a seamless single railroad connection between most all of Canada and Mexico.  There is a lot of stuff--Canadian grain, Canadian crude oil, finished automobiles from Mexico, etc. that could move on that line.  If you think about it, CPKC is a double trancontinental railroad--east-west across Canada, and north-south across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico.

Anything looks good on paper

Posted from iPhone

rails_etc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> wabash2800 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Maps with traffic projections would have been
> > easier to digest...
> >
> > Victor Baird
>
> Those are
> here: https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/DCMS
> _External_PROD/1652793885016/304552.pdf (skip to
> page 183 for the good stuff)
>
> -Alan-

Great material here, lots of operational detail. Thanks for posting.

A recession in the US, Mexico, or Canada could throw a wrench into these plans.

CPKC will be under the gun to boost revenue, not cut costs, if they want to boost free cash flow.  That's what they will need to pay down their debt load.  Even a severe downturn in the grain business to wreak havoc on CPKC.

For anyone who might really care, save that prognostication for 3 years and then check it out.  Creel would either not reply or come up with some junky reason it did not come about..  Of course it would be impossible to find those 80,000 trucks that would be missing.

Keith Creel has announced that the first new train pair 181/18x will start the end of April/early May (assuming there isn't a Court ordered injunction). This will be a Mexico City/ Chicago Intermodal.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/19/23 04:29 by SOO6617.

jgilmore Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
" I know these
> corporate-generated merger benefits rarely pan
> out, but how much funny stuff do you have to smoke
> to reach that conclusion?  <snip> 
>
> JG

Just a guess: a couple fat ones. 
😉😋
That's all folks, try the veal...

Now back to the regular program..... 👍

Yuh know, if I were UP CEO I could double the revenues though the OR would be at 62. Is that claim any less believable than the
CPKC projections? I've read quite a bit of their projections and it's hard to see how the synergy of the combined system will radically
improve their traffic growth. The trucks off the road thing is just pie in the sky dar board material. But then I could be totally wrong
and all of a sudden they're going to drop PSR in favor of traffic growth? Or PSR will drive traffic growth? I'm probably looking at
this wrong because maybe the end to end single carrier will divert enough traffic off other carriers to make the CPKC claims real.
Thats hardly competition but rather a government granted monopoly!

Out