Western Railroad Discussion > Big Slowdown in Port Traffic?

WW Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Uninformed people think of the farming/ranching
> industry in singular terms.  While the tariffs
> may decrease grain exports, it will make grain and
> soybean products more affordable for American
> livestock feeders.  Lower feeding costs for
> livestock will help the livestock industry and
> lower meat prices for American consumers. 
> Increase meat demand with lower retail meat prices
> will lead to more livestock being fed, which will
> require more livestock feed.  Free markets
> adjust.   Also, a lot of grain producers have
> likely already hedged their 2025 harvest on the
> futures market, so the price that they receive at
> harvest may already be "locked in."  Generally
> speaking, American farmers and ranchers are far
> more sophisticated businesspeople than most
> "city-slickers" can imagine.  Those family
> farmers and ranchers--yes, American family farmers
> and ranchers--are often running multi-million
> dollar businesses with more technology, knowhow,
> and business savvy than most non-farmers or
> non-ranchers could possibly imagine.  I live in
> ag country and I know a lot of these farmers and
> ranchers very well.  
  Hey, I live in ag country too! Boy, don't I know those guys are savvy! Savvy enough to suck up 26 billion to help bail 'em 
out of the mess this guy created in his first go round and Brazil benefited. The past few years have been 'get
big...really big, or get out' for farmers. We've got the luxury of producing more food than we can eat and consequently
selling the surplus...if there'll be anybody that'll buy it.

talking to a lot of farmers, many are definately worried

dan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> talking to a lot of farmers, many are definately
> worried

They should be. When a giant primary market evaporates overnight, I don’t care how sophisticated a businessperson you might be, its a big problem. We are about to arrive at the FO portion of this experiment.

Posted from iPhone



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/25 20:02 by DJ-12.

No producer wants to see a hard-earned market evaporate or disappear. Especially when you are part of the solution, not the problem.

I have to believe railroad business planners are working out the consequences of this nonsense.  Even if tariffs on auto parts for new cars are walked back (which is likely at this minute), the loss of some auto import business, grains and beans, export coal, etc will hit railroads pretty hard.  And the loss of intermodal inbound has to be scary.

This is the time of year when retailers are finishing orders for Thanksgiving to Christmas toys, clothes, etc orders. So manufacturers in China, Thailand, Pakistan, Indonesia, etc can get to work, and ship stuff to the US in August-September. It's tough to project inventory and sales if you don't know what the cost of goods will be...

The future is more worrisome to those farmers who raise tree crops.  You can't write this off as one bad year and grow something else next year.  Tree crops are always a long term gamble, it takes several years just to get good production going to pay back the cost of planting, if prices are good.

mapboy

Sal Knows what he is talking about he is a professor at Campbell University and is a former Merchant marine.  What's going on in shipping is a great channel. 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/29/25 09:06 by czuleget.

I know the I&O put a lot of effort into developing an export market for soybeans out of Central Ohio, with containerloads being shipped from Jeffersonville.  I wonder how this project is being impacted currently?

Railroaders, get ready to get furloughed or let go.

Victor Baird

wabash2800 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Railroaders, get ready to get furloughed or let go.

I'm ready for a nice little furlough while all the dust settles. Got a buttload of cash put away, insignificant debt, and I'm primed for a vacation. Bring it on.

trainjunkie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm ready for a nice little furlough while all the
> dust settles. Got a buttload of cash put away,
> insignificant debt, and I'm primed for a vacation.
> Bring it on.

Thats the type of energy I love to see. If you do get furloughed I hope you enjoy that vacation! 

As we know by discussing this reference railroading in the recent past, a trend has been just canning people with low seniority. And when they were sorely needed, they had found jobs in other industries and didn't want to get rehired.

Victor Baird

BrandonRC Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> trainjunkie Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'm ready for a nice little furlough while all
> the
> > dust settles. Got a buttload of cash put away,
> > insignificant debt, and I'm primed for a
> vacation.
> > Bring it on.
>
> Thats the type of energy I love to see. If you do
> get furloughed I hope you enjoy that vacation! 


You tend to develop this attitude when you are essentially working ALL the time and can't get days off....

The "required rest" (as I laugh) doesn't cut it?!?!

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/30/25 07:46 by ns1000.

ns1000 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BrandonRC Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > trainjunkie Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > I'm ready for a nice little furlough while
> all
> > the
> > > dust settles. Got a buttload of cash put
> away,
> > > insignificant debt, and I'm primed for a
> > vacation.
> > > Bring it on.
> >
> > Thats the type of energy I love to see. If you
> do
> > get furloughed I hope you enjoy that
> vacation! 
>
>
> You tend to develop this attitude when you are
> essentially working ALL the time and can't get
> days off....
>
> The "required rest" (as I laugh) doesn't cut
> it?!?!
>
> Posted from Android

where's the LIKE button?

Railroad workers and miners led the fight for worker rights and union recognition in the US. As the national strike of 1877 showed, labor has real muscle.

When it chooses to flex it.

Looking at the AAR carloadings data online, it hasn't taken a big dump....yet, including intermodal.  Slow slide so far.

But that's one of the more unbiased indicators of economic activity you'll ever see, just sayin'.

Very good explanation in this Video, points out typical volume and makes comparisons to traffic from last year, also acknowledges it's not a binary / hair on fire situation. Also shows how to get the data yourself:

What's Going on With US Ports? | Are US Ports Ghost Towns? | Is Cargo Sailing from China?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GgcIuQ4X5k



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/30/25 09:15 by TCnR.

Agreed - this is a good video.

But be sure watch it all the way through, particularly from about the halfway point to the end. That is where the presenter goes into comparative data, which is really the most important factor. And there the news is not bright. Using the excellent data from the Ports of Los Angeles - Long Beach, there are real declines in arriving traffic in the weeks ahead. Port director Gene Seroca has also recently appeared on CNBC and spoken directly about the 35% upcoming traffic decline that the port is seeing in its data on arriving ships from the Orient, particularly China.

The trendline is the important thing, not spot anecdotal data on ship counts at berth, in transit or whatever on any given day. The ports know what their inbound traffic trends are, and in detail. Also stats on blank sailings are useful for seeing a trendline - they are schedules among the ship operators that are no being operated due to traffic reductions.  Focus on advance trendline data. It's out there, is relatively easy to obtain, and it tells the best and most complete story.

MC

Depends on which theory a person is following or hoping for, what good news is or what doom looks like.

The present economic theory is for fewer Imports and more Exports, also targeted trade for certain countries. Exports may not show up in container data, the recent Soda Ash discussion going out of Stockton will not show in TEBU's for example.

California is presently importing crude oil and wants to move to Importing Refined gasoline. That will show up in California Port data.

DJ-12 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> They should be. When a giant primary market
> evaporates overnight, I don’t care how
> sophisticated a businessperson you might be, its a
> big problem. We are about to arrive at the FO
> portion of this experiment.
>
I am a farmer and am old enough to remember the Jimmy Carter wheat emargo on the Soviet Union. You talk about a market that not only evaporated but also went down in flames. Agriculture never fully recovered from that action. After that our market was looked at as an unreliable source of grain. 
Since we are talking tariffs, China and grain for export markets(unit trains), here is a video that one of our marketing guys participated in and I think he gave a great take on the previous four years and the inroads China has made in South America & the Carribean countries. It was recorded before the election. I added the goodies at the end so yeah, my bias came out. ;) Trump has his work cut out for him and if we loose this fight then I'm not sure what this part of the world will look like in 10 years or so. China is very strong in Canada and their recent election of Carney will only make China even stronger in Canada.

You must be a registered subscriber to watch videos. Join Today!

dan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> talking to a lot of farmers, many are definately
> worried

As a farmer, there is always worries whether it's the weather or tariffs. The first time around, Trump did help farmers since he was taking in so much money from the tariffs. I suspect it could happen again. China takes advantage of our grain markets and has secret Companies buying for them so prices won't go up when they buy large quantities. As a farmer, we don't get any benefit from them and they like to stick it to us so I'm all for tariffs and I've quit buying all that Chinese junk on Amazon and other places.
Joe

Good thread. Lots going on in corners of the world the US has taken for granted in the past

Posted from Android