Canadian Railroads > Update: Bill Ackman's CPR holdings

Interesting follow up on the Pershing Square Capital investment holding. Although I don't believe CPR is at a 65% operating ratio, the metrics of the argument look interesting

>>For instance, assuming 4% growth, a 65% operating ratio and a multiple of 14x forward earnings, Ackman estimated a year ago that CP would be worth USD 128 by the end of 2014. We are now in that neighborhood and a good 22 months ahead of schedule. Just as importantly, CP got here largely on its own, easily outperforming its peers along the way. That begs the question . . . now that Ackman is within spitting distance of some advertised targets, will he start to lighten up? And if not now, when?<<

more in the fourth paragraph:


<http://us4.campaign-archive.com/?u=3870e293ae35fe568ab831f5d&amp;id=1da7147d37

When he thinks it's maxed out, he will sell.

Bill Miller
Galt, ON

I bailed out at 114. too soon perhaps?
Sid.

CCMF Wrote:
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> When he thinks it's maxed out, he will sell.


Yes, although as a controlling shareholder he'll need to provide a formal notice of his plan to sell, etc.

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
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> CCMF Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > When he thinks it's maxed out, he will sell.
>
>
> Yes, although as a controlling shareholder he'll
> need to provide a formal notice of his plan to
> sell, etc.


I think he only owns about 15% of CP right now.....not actually "controlling" though it is his board nominees that are in the majority and his hand-picked dude playing the role of HMFIC (Head and In Charge are some of the words).

Disposal can actually be fairly speedy. Block trades of a million or more shareholders aren't difficult. Using options or other derivatives to synthetically sell the position may have the effect of masking movement in the position in the short run. Reporting requirement for a 13-D filer (5% or more ownership) gives him a few days after the transaction to report that it was done.

BobE