Eastern Railroad Discussion > Blizzard Forecast for the Northeast

Here is the latest on the developing blizzard in the Northeast. http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2014/01/winter-storm-update.html

After the correctly forecast mid-afternoon lull, heavier snow has resumed in northwest Ohio. The NWS forecasts for this storm have been fairly accurate around here. AccuWeather thought it would be weaker.

Also noting the outlook forecast for NW Ohio has some of the deepest sustained cold we've had in quite a while -- single-digit highs, a minus-6 low one morning next week.

toledopatch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> After the correctly forecast mid-afternoon lull,
> heavier snow has resumed in northwest Ohio. The
> NWS forecasts for this storm have been fairly
> accurate around here. AccuWeather thought it would
> be weaker.
>
> Also noting the outlook forecast for NW Ohio has
> some of the deepest sustained cold we've had in
> quite a while -- single-digit highs, a minus-6 low
> one morning next week.

Blizzard Bill is now saying -14 for Monday overnight....

Is that -14 for Ohio and surrounding areas? Thanks

Posted from iPhone

Forever-Railfan-45 Wrote:
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> Is that -14 for Ohio and surrounding areas? Thanks
>

Blizzard Bill is a Toledo-area TV weather forecaster.

Web site predictions for Toledo for Monday night:

NWS -6
Weather Channel -7
Accuweather -11

... and for Canton, OH:

NWS 14
Weather Channel -8
Accuweather -12

Interesting disagreement between NWS and the others for Canton.

toledopatch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> ... and for Canton, OH:
>
> NWS 14
> Weather Channel -8
> Accuweather -12
>
> Interesting disagreement between NWS and the
> others for Canton.


Curious....when I call up the forecast from NOAA, it thinks it is Monday in Canyon right now and that New Year's Day is a couple of days away. Then refreshed and it is the correct day. I see the Monday forecast high is 13 and low is -6. Accuweather is +12 and -12, respectively.

BobE

BobE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> toledopatch Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > ... and for Canton, OH:
> >
> > NWS 14
> > Weather Channel -8
> > Accuweather -12
> >
> > Interesting disagreement between NWS and the
> > others for Canton.
>
>
> Curious....when I call up the forecast from NOAA,
> it thinks it is Monday in Canyon right now and
> that New Year's Day is a couple of days away.
> Then refreshed and it is the correct day. I see
> the Monday forecast high is 13 and low is -6.
> Accuweather is +12 and -12, respectively.
>
> BobE

I had a similar glitch with a southern Indiana location when I tried to run that earlier today, too. I suspect they're having an info-technology problem, and that might explain the forecast oddity I saw for Canton when I tried to call that up.

Edited to add: It so happens I still had that page open on a different browser tab, and you're right! The days were all messed up. And still are when I hit 'refresh'.

Edited further: And NWS Indianapolis now thinks it's yesterday afternoon in Seymour, Ind. Oops.

Re-check: Canton now shows a Monday night forecast of -6 for me, too.

It's gonna be cold.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 01/01/14 18:29 by toledopatch.

I'm a Sr. VP with AccuWeather. Our forecasts are the result of the work of our forecasters and it is not uncommon for them to differ with the forecasts from the National Weather Service.

Mike Smith

kansas1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm a Sr. VP with AccuWeather. Our forecasts are
> the result of the work of our forecasters and it
> is not uncommon for them to differ with the
> forecasts from the National Weather Service.


I'm not criticizing the disagreement, just noting the range of forecasts.

kansas1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm a Sr. VP with AccuWeather. Our forecasts are
> the result of the work of our forecasters and it
> is not uncommon for them to differ with the
> forecasts from the National Weather Service.
>
> Mike Smith


Weather always interests me. Recently, I was driving from Sequim, Washington to Cincinnati, Ohio and the weather report I heard was to be for at least three days of good driving weather. That all went to hell on Saturday, the 28th of December when I was approaching Fargo, North Dakota. The local weather folks described it as a ground blizzard. They were predicting just an inch of snow but the winds were horrible and what snow was falling and what snow was on the ground was being blown around like something I have not ever seen. I had to hole up in a hotel in Casselton, North Dakota (where they just had a train derailment) for the afternoon and night. The temperature was below zero and the wind chill was around -40. My car did start the next morning but it sure didn't want to. Anyway, I appreciate your weather reports. Thanks.

The Hudson Valley area in and around Bear Mountain NY is forecast to drop to around minus-10 Fahrenheit Friday night.....coldest that it has gotten in years in the area.....

I like to check in on the Mt Washington NH weather site and the summit of Mt Washington at 6288 ft is forecast to only see high temperatures of minus-15 Fahrenheit on Friday.....The record low temp up there is in the mid negative 40's not counting the windchill.....but North Conway NH down in the Mt Washington valley is forecast to see a low of negative-23 Fahrenheit Friday night...Dave W.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/02/14 05:36 by dwi189.

I didn't take it that way. Just wanted to explain how our forecasts are made.
Have a great 2014!
Mike



toledopatch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I'm not criticizing the disagreement, just noting
> the range of forecasts.

toledopatch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> kansas1 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'm a Sr. VP with AccuWeather. Our forecasts
> are
> > the result of the work of our forecasters and
> it
> > is not uncommon for them to differ with the
> > forecasts from the National Weather Service.
>
>
> I'm not criticizing the disagreement, just noting
> the range of forecasts.

Mike Woods, the Fox 5 weather guy in NYC, had the various forecasts for the Thursday night storm on his board last night. It was pretty interesting.

The bitter cold weather coming into the NY area from Ohio could push the warm wet front coming up from the Carolinas farther east along Long Island, resulting in 8 inches or lower snowfall in NYC and NJ. He put that chance about 50%

Or, the wet Carolinas front could push the super cold air a little farther north and west, resulting in huge snow falls of one to one and a half feet of snow in NYC and NJ, maybe a 20% chance of that.

Various other outcomes were modeled on which fronts pushed which other fronts first and hardest.

He went on to say that the various forecasting services differed on which would become dominant, but as the storm moves closer, the forecasts will move closer together, as well. Since various TV stations buy weather from different providers and hype it for their own ratings, what they report will differ.

Looks like full blown blizzard conditions outside right now,
Dick Eisfeller in Greenland, NH, about six miles from the Coast.