Eastern Railroad Discussion > Coal Traffic Decline Seen by Report

 Although coal traffic has enjoyed a renaissance of late, it is not expected to last a research report indicated.
As reported on the website of Trains magazine, the report by Wolfe Research said a wave of retirements of coal-fired power plants is expected to reduce rail coal traffic.
Those retirements are expected to accelerate in 2025 and continue through the second half of the current decade.
The Wolfe report said about 23 percent of coal-fired electricity generating capacity will be retired over the next five years. That is expected to result in a 12.1 percent drop in Class I coal traffic by 2026.

In recent months rail coal traffic has ticked upward due to low stockpiles at power plants and high natural gas prices. Industry analysts expect that to continue into next year.
The Wolfe report noted that 70 power-plant retirement dates have already been announced. About three-quarters of those plants use coal mined in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana.
CSX is expected to lose 11.8 percent of its coal traffic while Norfolk Southern will lose 5.5 percent, the Wolfe report said. From the akronrrblog

Interesting stuff and hopefully a lot of those plants will go to natural gas as opposed to shutting down completely.  Coal trains should be rolling for a long while because the export market is still decent.  India, China, Japan, South Korea and a number of other countries still have an appetite for our coal.

As the entire Global Warming problems increase (funny as all that coal mined in the 18 and early 19 hundreds didn't seem to cause any problems nor the absolutely iron and coal industries, not to mention thousands of coal and oil fired locomotives and early gasoline powered cars didn't seem to affect much, today with all the cars, trucks, power plants  and locomotives despite the catalytic converters and other emission devices since the mid-Sixties are suddenly causing these atmospheric problems.As an old guy it's very disturbing as to how our predecessors managed to live through all of that pollution. It was there, I recall seeing the brown and gray skies. I only hope my off spring can survive as long as I despite these gloomy forecasts.
Gp

I don’t know how to even respond to that.

Posted from iPhone

There's a theory that things like volcanic eruptions would have shaded the Earth at times, some say that the Industrial Revolution could have had the same shading and cooling effect. But there's problems with just about every theory.

For every coal, gas or oil fired plant that is taken out of service what is taking its place. Sure isn't nuclear. I have also read somewhere that the latest coal burning technology is very successful at removing most pollutants. Finally how do electric vehicles perform for evac purposes such as hurricane Ian we just had in Florida.  Oops too far from the subject matter.
CR

WM1977 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For every coal, gas or oil fired plant that is
> taken out of service what is taking its place.
> Sure isn't nuclear. I have also read somewhere
> that the latest coal burning technology is very
> successful at removing most pollutants. Finally
> how do electric vehicles perform for evac purposes
> such as hurricane Ian we just had in Florida. 
> Oops too far from the subject matter.
> CR

They are being converted to gas if they are not being torn down....I see in many cases gas fired plants have been built new very near to former coal plants....especially where the coal plant is quite old to begin with and not amenable to conversion. 

Many coal plants have good connections into the grid, so the location works well for a new gas or small nuke plant.

Posted from Android

well, what does the future hold for increasing gas prices?

66

Right now the sky is the limit...hedging for the unknown I would lean toward continuing high prices. Geopolitics and simple demand being the chief variables. 

We do all we can to reduce the effect on the environment here in the U.S.,but as long as other countries don't follow that model, it won't have that much of an effect.

Victor B.

engineerinvirginia Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Right now the sky is the limit...hedging for the
> unknown I would lean toward continuing high
> prices. Geopolitics and simple demand being the
> chief variables. 

and the demand for energy does not appear to be decreasing anywhere, especially here.

we shall see what the demand will be for exploiting the inexpensive, abundant, and reliable energy sources we have here ...........

66

That's an odd thing to say, energy consumption has gone down significantly at the very least due to improved insulation and HVAC upgrades. There could be more individual users, but new houses and buidlings have huge insulation code requirements. Automobiles have mandated mileage and emission requirements.

TCnR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That's an odd thing to say, energy consumption has
> gone down significantly at the very least due to
> improved insulation and HVAC upgrades. There could
> be more individual users, but new houses and
> buidlings have huge insulation code requirements.
> Automobiles have mandated mileage and emission
> requirements.
The
The Obama era Cash for Clunkers bought and shredded a lot of older, higher polluting cars. And helped Detroit out of the hole.

Posted from Android