Model Railroading > Models Values in Later Years

Why is it that if I wanted to buy a Ford Model A or a '57 Chevy 2-door hardtop or any other vintage auto/vehicle, the price is out of this world.  When it comes to HO models such as Walthers plastic locos or some models in brass, that the price tends to be stable to the purchase price or further below.  I guess it's due to popularity at the time and "what's in" with the modeling generation at the time, yet knowing the brass holds its value moreso over plastic models.  Just wondering how other modelers see it and what their values on this matter might be.

Basically it's technology marches on. Fifteen years ago, the Proto 2000 GP7/9s were out of this world good, now put one up against an Athearn Genesis. They look like Tycos now (ok, they aren't that bad). Eventually someone does a new/better model, and the old ones flood the market, value goes down. 
Cheers,
Nick

It's hard to figure out the "cachet" some items have over others and they become "collectible".  Partly it is because the model trains are often perceived as "mass produced toys", even though many are now produced in limited runs.  Oddly enough many mass produced toys from the 50's and 60's have become "nostalgic" or "collectible" but the trains have not.

I do agree with the previous poster that many model items are made obsolete by technology.  An old Athearn "GP9" (which were always GP7s) from the blue box era is laughable compared to a P2K or current Athearn/Genesis or even Bachmann's newer efforts.  One thing that often strikes me is that many people might pay an increased value for an item that is "mint" but won't pay a pittance for a model that has been custom detailed and corrected.

Bottom line, buy the stuff you like and don't buy stuff as an investment.

Gary B.
Waverly, NE

Slightly askew to the topic, but I think the P2K Geeps are better proportioned than the Genesis units. Something about the Gennies just doesn't look right to me -- the dynamic brake blisters definitely don't look right.

Simple economics in play here. The factor is availability. There arent a lot of 57 chevy's or Model T's to be had. Many ended up as scrap.  Some have been modified to fit a users style, rendering their value higher or lower to a potential buyer. Finding the right one is tough.  The same happens with model railroad stuff, though not to the same degree. A product that had many items produced, still available in circulation will have less value than an item out of production, out of stock and maybe the company no longer is in business.  The demand for those will have an effect on the price as well. TYco made zillions of GP20's not a great model, but were hot for awhile as scratchbuld fodder for their low noses for a while. And, they were the only game in town of that style. Then Proto 2000 made theirs, and every junk train flea market dealer has them in spades.  Using an example from my modeling era-If lots of people want a TTX Modern logo 60" Gunderson box, those that are for sale will command a higher price due to demand and the fact Athearn hasn't run them in a while and those that were run have gone to homes that love them and won't let them go. So on ebay they are gold...if the demand=the buyers idea of the need for it the price is whatever the buyer will pay. On ebay this gets silly sometimes. So do 57 Chevy's at Barrett Jackson Auctions.  Athearn does another run...and the price crashes.

Brass may see some of this, especially when the model is unique, and in limited numbers and no longer imported. This market has been killed by the availability of nice models in plastic unless its something you can't get anywhere else. Craftsman building kits and resin cars may do this as well, especially if the maker is no longer, the molds are shot and it's a gotta have it item. Unique scratchbuilt or weathered items may command some interesting prices-again, value to the buyer vs sellers perception of unique, unusual, or no longer available. I don't see Chevrolet making 57's again...

This also attracts new products similar to the one that commands these prices-While no one is making new 57 Chevy's, The chance of seeing a new product similar to those in demand makes pricing moderate too. 53' JB Hunt Intermodal Containers were a hot item, now multiple sources are available. This has opened up the used market a bit and prices stabilize. There are still the ebay seller who think they have gold, but they aren't getting many bites.

Dave Burman
modeling the modern Twin Cities
Trempealeau, WI

Brass price is down for almost all older units from say the fiftys and sixtys. The large problem is if they have not been reworked most do not run very well and the later ones if brass, plastic or cast with brass details run out of the box much better.

Well, since nobody mentioned it, I guess I have to:  virtually EVERY 16 year old wants a car--ANY car.  Virtually NO 16 year old has ANY interest in model trains.  Along with the Baby Boomer generation, our beloved hobby is dying.  The value of model trains, in most cases, is plummeting.  Some rare or especially fine models in pristine condition still command premium prices, but most any other equipment, especially if it's pre-DCC era, get the landfill ready.  For the foreseeable future, those 16 year olds will always want a car, and as they age, some will become enthusiasts and collectors, but 99.99% of them will NEVER want any model railroad equipment. Supply and demand?  You bet.  The supply is unbelievably huge and the demand is going downhill fast.  Just my take, sorry.

IMO, this is a great time to be in the hobby - lots of nice, prototypically based models hitting the market from Athearn/Genesis, ExactRail, Tangent, even Wheels of Time, Fox Valley, and others getting into the act along with Atlas and others.  I've been hearing about the hobby dying for years; just my take.

Cheers, Jim

When I attend a NMRA division meet there isn't one person under 50. I realize that not every model railroader is a NMRA member but I would be interested in seeing some data nationwide when it comes to the  age of model railroaders. 

Attendance at division meets has more to do with time and money than it does with age. The local hobbyshop (yeah, we have one) sees plenty of men and women in the 20 to 40 age range but they aren't often in a position to split away from the family for a couple days of train fest.

There is an age gap.  Always was, still is.  from 14 to 40 there is a lot of different things to compete with our attention. By the time we start to hit that 40 stride, a few things happen. We get time, space and opportunity. Time is no longer occupied with dating, then marriage a house, kids with activities, and the like. As kids go to college, and leave the nest we get space.The next house is planned, not with 4 bedrooms, but may have a better "layout room". And finally what i call opportunity. With the nest empty, and time comes that point in our career where we arent making small change, and it isn't going to kids stuff, college tuition and the house is pretty much paid off.

When those three things meet in the cosmos, we look to fill the void. Lots of stuff can do this. Midlife crisis cars, the big boat, a HOBBY?  As much as we grouse about video games, the end product isnt satisfying. If you get to the top level, where then? You can only watch so much TV. And, without those folks you used to share soccer games, car pools and birthday parties at Chuck E Cheese with now have other stuff, it gets a bit solitary. If you ask a spouse 3 months after their significant other retires what they think, some say the miss the time away that they used to have without them. My best friends now are they guys (and gals) I operate with. One of the reasons we relocated was to live near this group.

Model railroading?  It's how you choose to present it. Shows do some good and some bad. I can't fix the Peyton Manning and Sheldon stereotype stuff of toot toot vest guys-some folks may be looking for that too. But, getting someone involved is as much giving them something they can relate to. I like operations, so I present it to folks as a 3d video game you can reach into. Tactile sensation plus problem solving from that video game they used to love. We reach outto recruit operators because if it catches, they start building. A car or a building, then maybe a locomotive. The round robin we have gets them carpentry skill, some electrical and the ability to play god making a world, If they choose to participate. They'll get it, and they'll show their kid, who now has one of their own. And, the cycle moves forward. We can take our time saver to shows, and when we do, we always find a couple of folks to invite. I'm thinking about taking it to the pre retirement trade shows we have around here. This In a town of 50,000 that no longer has a hobby shop.

We deliberatly pair new folks with engaging teachers of the hobby. We've added most of our operators this way, and several layouts, both finished and several under construction. If you want to know about decoders and sound, we have folks that can show you and then watch and advise while you try it yourself. RTR stuff can help those without the model skill, but want good looking stuff that looks real and runs well. I don't want to build every single piece I run. I have special projects that I want to build and those get the time. The round robin helps take a lifetime of construction and makes it doable in the time I can spend and within my budget.

The RPM guys have their own ways of doing this, the module folks, a similar story. We tend to not be joiners, and the club model didn't work well unless it was inviting. I think the biggest market may not be old guys, but we've found several women that like to operate. Their skill sets are different, but they are better at some things, bring different perspectives and have a lot of fun just being with the group. I could go on, but I see the train shows, and when i get to the open hobby shops I see people. Lots of them. They must have an interest, they took the time and opportunity...It's simply getting them the bug. 

Dave Burman
 
 

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/06/15 12:09 by bnsftcdiv.

Seeing lots of good opinions here.  For the most, I think the "baby boomers" and those prior, lived in an era when the railroads were more attractive with a more "homey" feel and even some steam, plus those lines with lots more trackage.  Also, they lived in a more docile society.  Today's society lives in an environment drawn in multiple directions by the the ever growing technologies, even into space like Mars and beyond.  Look at the youth (as well as some adults) today that have their heads and hands constantly living on a cell phone and these youth for the most part see trains and railroads as a thing of little or no interest.  I've tried to interest some of my grandkids in railroad subjects as well as modeling and their affection is more with hunting and archery.  There's the old adage of "what goes around, comes around".  Maybe someday they will have the interest to acquire my "old fashioned" models and railroadiana, but for now I'm not holding my breath and maybe by that time, I won't be breathing!

If you read old MR's and RMCs' from the late fifties and the sixties, letters to the editors always has someone saying the hobby is dying, it's getting gray, slot cars take a youngster's interest, and on, and on, and on. Yet the hobby still goes on, though it's more specialized now. We have prototype modelers, historical societies, some of the best detailed equipment.
The attendees at NMRA conventions are old. The younger people don't want to join an origination of stuffy old people talking about gossip, silly contests, politics, etc. The NMRA had it's day, but it's day has passed.
Want to see young model railroaders, go to the prototype modelers conventions, where idea's, not gossip are shared. Go to clubs that see young people as the future, not a bother to be ignored.
Irv Athearn did the hobby a disservice but putting cheap, low cost models on the market. No other manufacture could compete, except maybe Tyco. Had Irv moved the hobby forward with better models, we would be father ahead than we are now. Look where the plastic aircraft people are.
And this hero worship stuff, the way people talk about what some people, whether the were editors of magazines, master model railroaders, etc, and the contributions they made, to me are over rated. If you want to see the people that make the hobby great, look in the mirror. It's you and me, unknown's that make the hobby what it is. Leave the hero worship for the people that follow sports.

Totaly agree with the above post could not of said it better myself Cheers Dennis

needles_sub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you read old MR's and RMCs' from the late
> fifties and the sixties, letters to the editors
> always has someone saying the hobby is dying, it's
> getting gray, slot cars take a youngster's
> interest, and on, and on, and on. Yet the hobby
> still goes on, though it's more specialized now.
> We have prototype modelers, historical societies,
> some of the best detailed equipment.
> The attendees at NMRA conventions are old. The
> younger people don't want to join an origination
> of stuffy old people talking about gossip, silly
> contests, politics, etc. The NMRA had it's day,
> but it's day has passed.
> Want to see young model railroaders, go to the
> prototype modelers conventions, where idea's, not
> gossip are shared. Go to clubs that see young
> people as the future, not a bother to be ignored.
> Irv Athearn did the hobby a disservice but putting
> cheap, low cost models on the market. No other
> manufacture could compete, except maybe Tyco. Had
> Irv moved the hobby forward with better models, we
> would be father ahead than we are now. Look where
> the plastic aircraft people are.
> And this hero worship stuff, the way people talk
> about what some people, whether the were editors
> of magazines, master model railroaders, etc, and
> the contributions they made, to me are over rated.
> If you want to see the people that make the hobby
> great, look in the mirror. It's you and me,
> unknown's that make the hobby what it is. Leave
> the hero worship for the people that follow
> sports.

Regarding Irv Athearn, that is absolute horse pucky!  Without him the hobby of H.O. model railroading would never have blossomed into what it became by the 1990's.  From someone who made his living from the hobby for over three decades, I can tell you that Athearn "Blue Box" models gave the vast majority of model railroad enthusiasts their start.  In the 70's and later, I would tell those looking to start in the hobby that "it's very rare that one of the best quality items is also one of the least expensive, but in the case of Athearn, that's the case."  I also happen to believe that Tyco "Brown Box" trains did more to destroy interest in the hobby than any other manufacturer or market phenomenon, such as slot cars, due to the extremely poor quality and frustrating operating characteristics.  Most kids who got a "Brown Box" Tyco set tried to play with it, finally gave up and were completely turned off on the hobby, leading them, so many years later, to tell their sons "you don't want one of those, they are just junk."
 

Athearn's detailing and proportions were much, much better than anything else of the time period; compare the Globe (Athearn) F7 to the clunky Varney F3. It is true that Athearn didn't push the envelope too far with respect to the blue box line. Back in the 70's some people tried to push the envelope (Skip Guirty with the GSB SD40-2 and Bill Glass with the E&B Valley flat kits) but they just didn't have the expertise required to make a breakthrough. Even though I can't afford most of this stuff, I'm grateful that today's production techniques and enlightened manufacturers are putting out such high quality models.

The MR hobby isn't dying, it's only changing.  Consider the substantial amount of folks using "Trainz" and "Train Simulator" type games.  I believe these people would have been into model railroading 20 years ago.  Today, they are into just another aspect of the SAME hobby.  Also, consider how many members there are on this site (and non-members that check in regularly).  Widen your telephoto lens and you'll see that while perhaps "HO and N scale" modeler numbers may be shrinking, the total number active in the hobby may be growing but in a more diverse sense.

KA7008 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The MR hobby isn't dying, it's only changing.
>  Consider the substantial amount of folks using
> "Trainz" and "Train Simulator" type games.  I
> believe these people would have been into model
> railroading 20 years ago.  Today, they are into
> just another aspect of the SAME hobby.  Also,
> consider how many members there are on this site
> (and non-members that check in regularly).  Widen
> your telephoto lens and you'll see that while
> perhaps "HO and N scale" modeler numbers may be
> shrinking, the total number active in the hobby
> may be growing but in a more diverse sense.

So, you equate folks building train models and layouts to those playing what are essentially video & computer games?  I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make sense to me.  I believe we are talking about two, very different things.  They both may have a railroad theme, but that's where the similarity abruptly and completely ends, at least to my way of thinking.l

The steady announcements and production of many new HO models indicates to me the hobby is doing well and seems far from dying.  The market is responding to consumer demand.  Shall I innumerate?

- Tangent is announcing HQ models left and right this year. 
- ExactRail continues to regularly churn out models including new models and reruns. 
- Athearn continues to announce new runs almost monthly - the retooled SD40 is a nice model I'm looking forward to and freight cars too. 
- Intermountain is still actively producing models including Red Caboose, Centralia etc.. 
- Wheels of Time is servicing many nice N-scale models and announced some excellent HO SP flat cars and bulkhead flats. 
- Fox River produced the new GP60 and numerous freight cars. 
- Scale Models is on the cusp of announcing new HO and N scale models in November. 
- Rapido has been really producing some top quality models in the past few years. 
- Atlas isn't quite as active as they were 6 or 7 years ago but are still producing some nice freight cars - I just picked up some nice 50' box cars from them. 
- BLMA just shipped the ATSF Bx-166 box cars and is working on the Trinity 5660 Covered hopper. 
- American Limited is producing Trinity 3281 covered hoppers. 
- Moloco has some lovely 50' box cars out and more announced for next year. 

I've probably forgotten some but ...  The hits just keep on coming - it sure doesn't look like a dying hobby to me.  I can't keep up with it all!!!

Cheers, Jim Fitch



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/07/15 13:18 by SPDRGWfan.

Streamliner Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> needles_sub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > If you read old MR's and RMCs' from the late
> > fifties and the sixties, letters to the editors
> > always has someone saying the hobby is dying,
> it's
> > getting gray, slot cars take a youngster's
> > interest, and on, and on, and on. Yet the hobby
> > still goes on, though it's more specialized
> now.
> > We have prototype modelers, historical
> societies,
> > some of the best detailed equipment.
> > The attendees at NMRA conventions are old. The
> > younger people don't want to join an
> origination
> > of stuffy old people talking about gossip,
> silly
> > contests, politics, etc. The NMRA had it's day,
> > but it's day has passed.
> > Want to see young model railroaders, go to the
> > prototype modelers conventions, where idea's,
> not
> > gossip are shared. Go to clubs that see young
> > people as the future, not a bother to be
> ignored.
> > Irv Athearn did the hobby a disservice but
> putting
> > cheap, low cost models on the market. No other
> > manufacture could compete, except maybe Tyco.
> Had
> > Irv moved the hobby forward with better models,
> we
> > would be father ahead than we are now. Look
> where
> > the plastic aircraft people are.
> > And this hero worship stuff, the way people
> talk
> > about what some people, whether the were
> editors
> > of magazines, master model railroaders, etc,
> and
> > the contributions they made, to me are over
> rated.
> > If you want to see the people that make the
> hobby
> > great, look in the mirror. It's you and me,
> > unknown's that make the hobby what it is. Leave
> > the hero worship for the people that follow
> > sports.
>
> Regarding Irv Athearn, that is absolute horse
> pucky!  Without him the hobby of H.O. model
> railroading would never have blossomed into what
> it became by the 1990's.  From someone who made
> his living from the hobby for over three decades,
> I can tell you that Athearn "Blue Box" models gave
> the vast majority of model railroad enthusiasts
> their start.  In the 70's and later, I would tell
> those looking to start in the hobby that "it's
> very rare that one of the best quality items is
> also one of the least expensive, but in the case
> of Athearn, that's the case."  I also happen to
> believe that Tyco "Brown Box" trains did more to
> destroy interest in the hobby than any other
> manufacturer or market phenomenon, such as slot
> cars, due to the extremely poor quality and
> frustrating operating characteristics.  Most kids
> who got a "Brown Box" Tyco set tried to play with
> it, finally gave up and were completely turned off
> on the hobby, leading them, so many years later,
> to tell their sons "you don't want one of those,
> they are just junk."
>  

That's my point. Irv Athearn gave people their start in model trains, but as their interests matured, where could they go, brass? The Athearn diesels had wide bodies, poor renditions of bloomburg trucks, crude, oversize cast on details, poor renditions of paint schemes.  There was even an ad in MR with a photo of Irv Athearn in his office commenting if modelers wanted to cut up three of his models to make one, he's all for it. Irv could have improved the Athearn line, but choose not to. Only when P2K models came out did he attempt to improve his models with scale hoods, better motors. Irv Athearn was an impediment to the development of this hobby. Nothing can change that,
You can hero worship Irv all you want, but he hurt the hobby. Tyco was the only alternative, with cheap train sets, slot car motors in one powered truck, that could compete with Athearn.
I got into the hobby with Athearn, but as I matured in the hobby, the wide hoods, poorly shaped F units, along with the trucks, sintered metal wheels that picked up all the crud on the rails, poor running motors, I almost blew the hobby off and started taking up models planes. The detail parts selection was outstanding, and vacuum formed kits to make different model variations, I just kept thinking why can't model trains have this.
You can continue speak the virtues of Irv, but in my book, he was just a wall to the development of the hobby.