Model Railroading > Where Are We Headed?

Over this weekend I've observed a couple of things in HO trains, all within the current playing field of limited production, that make me wonder where we are headed...

First example was a hobby shop, having a model that the manufacturer/importer had quickly sold out of, listing one of them on eBay in an auction starting at $5 above full retail, and then not selling through their hobby shop (essentially making prospective customers have to bid against each other)...

Second was a manufacturers rep, selling sold-out items (items that his campany had sold out of 6-10 months ago) in auctions on eBay, not in Buy It Now listings but in auctions...

Third was another hobby shop leaving sold out items on their website (with quantity available showing 1) in order to attract search hits and get more customers to their site - although those customers quickly finding out that they can't actually buy the items because when trying to add them to the shipping cart they then get notice the item is actually out of stock...  (Note: An email from this shop owner indicated that he didn't like it but his IT guy thought it was driving more potential customers to his site)

When those are added on top of the scenarios where production runs are not large enough to cover defective arrivals (shipping damage that some small percentage of items being imported from half way around the world are going to incur), entire production runs being done with accidental defects (leaving customer in position of accepting the defect or waiting many years for a correct one to be done), and topping it all off with manufacturers wanting customers to place preorders (a year in advance of delivery) and some shops refusing to do preorders (due to some buyers who were placing multiple preorders to insure they get something and then backing out on some prorders)... and it's getting a little "ugly" out there.

I don't want to get into the weeds of whether these are appropriate, or name shops/manufacturers, but wondering if you think we are entering a stage where this will become more common?   Are we going to see manufacturers producing lower percentage above preorder level?  Are we going to see manufacturers/shops taking the last of stock on popular items and making prospective buyers have to bid against each other for them?

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/19/19 13:34 by CSX602.

I'll go for this one....

My answer is "all of the above and many others". There is no ONE manufacturing, wholesaling, or selling method which will dominate.

One mfgr will sell only directly and at full price. Another mfgr may flood the market with thousands of product. Yet another may make only a few very high priced models of incredible quality. Someone else may make low quality at a low (or high) price. Someone else may set their retail prices sky high but discount dramatically. Others will sell then 'blowout' leftovers. None of these are a guaranteed path to success and each business plan may or may not work.

Retailers may choose to stock in depth for customers who do not buy immediately, others may buy only what they have orders for. Some may charge full price, others may deep discount. Some may choose the auction method.

Customers may patronize any way they choose to obtain the product. They may choose not to do business with anyone for any reason and may chooose to buy from only specific sources.

In other words the landscape will constantly change and there will not be any ONE method of getting models to the buyers from the manufacturers.

Parts and broken models are a problem which will not go away and the manufacturer will need to maintain his reputation for continued business.

From my point of view, I cant buy what I cant get and the manufacturer loses that revenue; I wont pay high prices for low quality. Beyond that I will use any source of my choosing.

Michael

CSX602 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Over this weekend I've observed a couple of things
> in HO trains, all within the current playing field
> of limited production, that make me wonder where
> we are headed...
>
> First example was a hobby shop, having a model
> that the manufacturer/importer had quickly sold
> out of, listing one of them on eBay in an auction
> starting at $5 above full retail, and then not
> selling through their hobby shop (essentially
> making prospective customers have to bid against
> each other)...
>
> Second was a manufacturers rep, selling sold-out
> items (items that his campany had sold out of 6-10
> months ago) in auctions on eBay, not in Buy It Now
> listings but in auctions...
>
> Third was another hobby shop leaving sold out
> items on their website (with quantity available
> showing 1) in order to attract search hits and get
> more customers to their site - although those
> customers quickly finding out that they can't
> actually buy the items because when trying to add
> them to the shipping cart they then get notice the
> item is actually out of stock...  (Note: An email
> from this shop owner indicated that he didn't like
> it but his IT guy thought it was friving more
> potential customers to his site)
>
> When those are added on top of the scenarios where
> production runs are not large enough to cover
> defective arrivals (shipping damage that some
> small percentage of items being imported from half
> way around the world are going to incur), entire
> production runs being done with accidental defects
> (leaving customer in position of accepting the
> defect or waiting many years for a correct one to
> be done), and topping it all off with
> manufacturers wanting customers to place preorders
> (a year in advance of delivery) and some shops
> refusing to do preorders (due to some buyers who
> were placing multiple preorders to insure they get
> something and then backing out on some
> prorders)... and it's getting a little "ugly" out
> there.
>
> I don't want to get into the weeds of whether
> these are appropriate, or name
> shops/manufacturers, but wondering if you think we
> are entering a stage where this will become more
> common?   Are we going to see manufacturers
> producing lower percentage above preorder level? 
> Are we going to see manufacturers/shops taking the
> last of stock on popular items and making
> prospective buyers have to bid against each other
> for them?
>
>
Welcome to the world of model railroading in the declining years of the Baby Boomer generation and the age of the Internet.  With the possible exception of a mere handful of well run, usually long established shops, it has been, is currently and will be in the future, an absolute blood bath trying to make ends meet.  The internet has been devastating to most brick & mortar shops and add to this, the hour by hour shrinking of the customer base and you have desperate times for shop owners.  As for manufacturers, we should all be thankful there are still as many in business as there are.  Every day, another modeler’s collection hits eBay and this phenomenon is going to get way worse, before it runs out of steam.  There is so much previously owned but still unused equipment out there that will soon be hitting the market, that the only explanation I have for why anyone would be a model railroad manufacturer, is that it must be love!  If making a buck were the first goal, I can think of many other, much less risky and more profitable ventures one could jump into.  To sum up, cherish the existing shops and truly TRY to support them, because tomorrow, there will be fewer of them.  The same goes for manufacturers.  Enjoy what we have now, as I don’t see it getting any better anytime soon.

Hope you are all well,

Allen Drucker

Allen and Michael, thanks for your comments...   Just of note, I've been in the hobby since the 1970s, and have made plenty of comments similar to yours to only be met in recent years with the chorus of it's a growing hobby and things have never been better for modelers/consumers...   I've seen good and bad manufacturers and shops along the way (both come and go) but the "evolution" is sometimes surprising if not troubling.



 

I guess we can all play just as long as the hobby is fun and we can afford the price of entry. There is always the secondary markets of swap meets and internet trading to keep things moving for a long time.

For those of us who have been in this hobby since the 1940s you all today have no idea of cars with cardboard sides, a first varney F-3 diesel of "Zamac" that would probably be considered a dangerous weapon these days, and other crude stuff, etc., etc.
When N began I jumped-in and still enjoy kit-bashing pasenger cars, etc. The selections are unbelievable today - Rapido, although expensive, is superb, as are Kato, etc.
I have to chuckle when people campare rivets on two makes of, say, SP Daylight cars when we had nothing that would come even close to comparing except for maybe some expensive brass.
Yes, times and interests change and have been - we once believed that slot cars would destroy the hobby. Seen any lately?
Count your blessings...

Bill Deaver
Tehachapi, CA

If I find out something I want is being planned, I place an order with a dealer who has never yet "forgotten" a special order or has said he's "been shorted." He discounts 15% on pre-orders and doesn't want a deposit. By the time the item arrives, the train part of the budget is fully funded. $10 a month over 24 months is a new engine. Fortunately, there's a basement full of acceptable stuff already and 95% of the cars and engines etc being released don't interest me at all.

I don't mess around with people I think are profiteering or messing around with their customers. Model railroad stuff is on my nice-to-have list, not my have-to-haves.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/18/19 22:25 by grahamline.

As I said I've been in the hobby since the 1970s and I'm not talking about a comparison between 1970s or 1980s to now...   What I'm speaking of is the changes in just the last 10-15 years, and product availability issues of more recent times.   10 years ago we had all the selection, more new products being introduced/offered, and a lot less trouble getting items once released.   (Rapido and Tangent seem to be the two constants so this is speaking more to the availability and pricing of the others)

Streamliner Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Every day, another modeler’s
> collection hits eBay and this phenomenon is going
> to get way worse, before it runs out of steam.
>  There is so much previously owned but still
> unused equipment out there that will soon be
> hitting the market, that the only explanation I
> have for why anyone would be a model railroad
> manufacturer, is that it must be love! 

Sure, those collections are hitting eBay, but how many people are really going to buy crappy AHM stuff from the 1970s? If the collection is Lionel at least those will be worth something, but that's why modern manufacturers are still in business - because people now will pay $300 for a super detailed locomotive with sound, lights, and possibly smoke. 

Curt,

It is obvious that you are complaining about 3 situations that involve your personal buying scenarios and you are trying to turn them into hobby wide problems. Model Railroading is doing great. I love many of the products coming out but I do selectively buy what I need. Maybe if u tried to do some actual modeling versus just a collector, u would enjoy this hobby like I do and stop your endless complaints.  Welcome to the USA where people can do these types of things.

All your scenarios are not limited to just this hobby.

People are allowed to sell above list.  People and companies  can sell things any way they want. Guess what, you do not have to buy them.  All kinds of Websites constantly show items in stock that are not.

So tired of the sky is falling from folks. The hobby has never been brighter and I am enjoying it so much. Try and enjoy it people, you may like it lol.

Bruce 



CSX602 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Over this weekend I've observed a couple of things
> in HO trains, all within the current playing field
> of limited production, that make me wonder where
> we are headed...
>
> First example was a hobby shop, having a model
> that the manufacturer/importer had quickly sold
> out of, listing one of them on eBay in an auction
> starting at $5 above full retail, and then not
> selling through their hobby shop (essentially
> making prospective customers have to bid against
> each other)...
>
> Second was a manufacturers rep, selling sold-out
> items (items that his campany had sold out of 6-10
> months ago) in auctions on eBay, not in Buy It Now
> listings but in auctions...
>
> Third was another hobby shop leaving sold out
> items on their website (with quantity available
> showing 1) in order to attract search hits and get
> more customers to their site - although those
> customers quickly finding out that they can't
> actually buy the items because when trying to add
> them to the shipping cart they then get notice the
> item is actually out of stock...  (Note: An email
> from this shop owner indicated that he didn't like
> it but his IT guy thought it was friving more
> potential customers to his site)
>
> When those are added on top of the scenarios where
> production runs are not large enough to cover
> defective arrivals (shipping damage that some
> small percentage of items being imported from half
> way around the world are going to incur), entire
> production runs being done with accidental defects
> (leaving customer in position of accepting the
> defect or waiting many years for a correct one to
> be done), and topping it all off with
> manufacturers wanting customers to place preorders
> (a year in advance of delivery) and some shops
> refusing to do preorders (due to some buyers who
> were placing multiple preorders to insure they get
> something and then backing out on some
> prorders)... and it's getting a little "ugly" out
> there.
>
> I don't want to get into the weeds of whether
> these are appropriate, or name
> shops/manufacturers, but wondering if you think we
> are entering a stage where this will become more
> common?   Are we going to see manufacturers
> producing lower percentage above preorder level? 
> Are we going to see manufacturers/shops taking the
> last of stock on popular items and making
> prospective buyers have to bid against each other
> for them?
>
>  

The only thing in this story that really bothers me is the store listing sold-out merchandise to theoretically attract traffic to its website. That may work in the short term, but eventually many pissed-off customers will stop visiting. See ya.
 

> I don't mess around with people I think are
> profiteering or messing around with their
> customers. 

I feel your pain every time I gas-up, buy an airline ticket or pay taxes when Bezos pays "0" (because as POTUS put it: "he's smart.") Model Railroading is just a tiny part of the our profiteering universe. An HP service tech told me that my new printer broke down because it is cheaply built and that HP really makes its money off the printer ink--which prices-out to $15,000 a gallon! Also, some of those so-called profiteering model rails are trying to pay-off their credit card balances spent on their hobby, and in some cases I know, pay for their next meal. Try to focus only on your hobby and ignore the static of the real world, that's what a hobby is for. 



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/20/19 08:23 by RRBaron.

I am blessed in that nearby to me, there are multiple hobby shops still in business, and one in particular who runs an incredibly good and responsive, HO-oriented store. It is extremely, extremely, rare - that John cannot obtain for me a model that is available for sale by any manufacturer who sells to shops - and in most all cases he obtains multiple copies for me. John at AA Hobby does not have to lie about quantities to attract buyers to his store. He takes pre-orders very soon after announcements are made.....AND.... he more often than not will order "extra" stock in as well. He has a huge storage of product and cycles it in and out of the main shop...he stocks many many brands of paints, including Rapido, Floquil, Testors, Valejo, etc...etc.... modeling tools, modeling materials (styrene, brass, detail parts by the thousands - he even has a very large store of parts from a recently-departed manufacturer of Canadian SD40-2 brass and plastic parts...add to this a huge store of Walthers buildings (I can still obtain steel mill items from him...) track products from Peco, Atlas, and others.....freight car trucks and wheelsets....Kadee couplers by the thousands...structure parts, cements and glue of all kinds...HO vehicles - some custom - and full painting and detailing/decoder/sound install services available. And......boxes and boxes of decals in HO scale...
If you look in John's parking lot ...you see cars from all over New England, and NY.

All of this and he is also a complete model shop for Military Modelers....so we rail customers have access to all of that as well...

So it IS possible to create a successful and honestly run store in 2019....with a huge stock...and responsive to modelers' needs.

Bob

 If making a buck were the first goal, I can think of many
> other, much less risky and more profitable
> ventures one could jump into.  
> Hope you are all well,
 Allen Drucker

Indeed, the photography and real estate businesses to mention a couple.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/19/19 19:20 by RRBaron.

Where are we headed? 

I don't know about y'all, but I'm heading upstairs into the train room.

---

Same here except headed down.  Gotta finish the train room first!

---

navarch2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am blessed in that nearby to me, there are
> multiple hobby shops still in business, and one in
> particular who runs an incredibly good and
> responsive, HO-oriented store. It is extremely,
> extremely, rare - that John cannot obtain for me
> a model that is available for sale by any
> manufacturer who sells to shops - and in most all
> cases he obtains multiple copies for me. John at
> AA Hobby does not have to lie about quantities to
> attract buyers to his store. He takes pre-orders
> very soon after announcements are made.....AND....
> he more often than not will order "extra" stock in
> as well. He has a huge storage of product and
> cycles it in and out of the main shop...he stocks
> many many brands of paints, including Rapido,
> Floquil, Testors, Valejo, etc...etc.... modeling
> tools, modeling materials (styrene, brass, detail
> parts by the thousands - he even has a very large
> store of parts from a recently-departed
> manufacturer of Canadian SD40-2 brass and plastic
> parts...add to this a huge store of Walthers
> buildings (I can still obtain steel mill items
> from him...) track products from Peco, Atlas, and
> others.....freight car trucks and
> wheelsets....Kadee couplers by the
> thousands...structure parts, cements and glue of
> all kinds...HO vehicles - some custom - and full
> painting and detailing/decoder/sound install
> services available. And......boxes and boxes of
> decals in HO scale...
> If you look in John's parking lot ...you see cars
> from all over New England, and NY.
>
> All of this and he is also a complete model shop
> for Military Modelers....so we rail customers have
> access to all of that as well...
>
> So it IS possible to create a successful and
> honestly run store in 2019....with a huge
> stock...and responsive to modelers' needs.

My car has been in that parking lot, too. Although the state of my storage room dictates that I don't buy as much as I did 5 or 10 years ago, I still make my pre-orders with AA Hobbies as well.
 

Hi Bruce,
Actually (and you can see I can use the largest font too - but not in unnecessary personal attacks) the scenarios I was speaking of involved items I already have (or have on the way from other dealers) but were watching because they showed up in eBay or online searches I was doing.

By the way, you do have a nice layout, and I would be surprised if you didn't want a few more of two of the modern items I was speaking of in the scenarios... (60' VTTX flats and 50' FBOX)

Cheers...

brfriedm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curt,
>
> It is obvious that you are complaining about 3
> situations that involve your personal buying
> scenarios and you are trying to turn them into
> hobby wide problems... yada... yada...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/19/19 13:32 by CSX602.

The hobby is healthy.  The only thing that's changed (other than hobby shops dying) is manufacturers don't like to see a lot of shelf stock that eventually has to be sold at or below cost.  Many have tightened production quantities and that causes short supply thus the over MSRP prices on Ebay and other places.
Hobby shops are still dying, but the hobby is just shifting to more of an online retail presence.  

-James Wright
 Omaha, NE



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/20/19 08:12 by JLW2K.

Well I see that many quoted someone taking the post to another level again, why do that we know what was written by someone else so leave it out.