Model Railroading > Recession and Model Train Spending

I don't recall how it all went down in 2008.  I was focused on a very narrow era of SP, but what happens to the hobby during a recession like in 2008?  Were trains cheaper on second hand markets like ebay?  Were manufacturers sitting on stock more?  I just wonder how the hobby manufacturers weather the storm or does it thrive like back during covid initially?  It seems the experts are all saying a recession is coming this year.

-CSN



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/22 08:24 by CaliforniaSteamin.

with high food and fuel prices, it would be a reasonable assumption that some people will be spending less on model trains.

possibly a LOT less...........

66

Yes I just paid nearly 6.00 a gallon for regular gas on F street in Wasco California last night.  I believe it was 5.81
goneon66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> with high food and fuel prices, it would be a
> reasonable assumption that some people will be
> spending less on model trains.
>
> possibly a LOT less...........
>
> 66

Nah, they'll just load up on credit card debt

The only thing that's goint to bring eBay prices back out of the stratosphere is if they they bring back relisting fees. 

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/22 09:23 by tehachapifan.

Canada has much higher gas price ... equivalent of 9.00 us per gallon.
Non necessities retail spending here is down very sharply.

As model trains are not a necessity , its likely, as during the 2008 recession, modelers here will be significantly cutting back thier spending.

The drop in retail sales is very noticeable at my local mall .... not the usually number of shoppers... but great for those using the mall as an indoor walking track

Posted from Android

One thing Jason once said in a Rapido Q/A  is that the 2008 recession altered the hobby and in some respects it has never recovered from it. Specifically, he mentioned (going from memory here) that before that Rapido could rerun a model with the same paint scheme a year or two after the previous run and people would still buy it -- there seemed to be more willingness before then among modelers to go out and buy *more* of the thing you really liked. That kind of demand hasn't been there since then, so one way a company adapts is by investing more in tooling (and running more paint schemes) -- the idea being to have a wider variety of products on the market at one time, to cater to more different niche modeler tastes, as opposed to rerunning the same thing with different roadnumbers and expecting the demand will still be there. Thus, paradoxically (but the idea makes sense to me) the recession may actually have helped drive the market forward in terms of manufacturers taking risks on projects with unusual prototypes, roadname-specific detail, etc. -- there was less market demand for the "safer" route after that. 

I am planning to scratch built more turnouts rather than buy commercial turnouts. Since I already have the tools and jigs, I can get the rails and ties for a Fast Tracks turnout for just over 10 bucks each. 
I will still be looking for good used locomotives and car kits are trainshows, rather than buying the new high dollar ready to run stuff. I can rebuild and detail older models and they will run just as smooth as the new ones. The older rebuilt engines are more rugged than the new stuff. You risk breaking fragile details just by removing the new engines from the box. 


Bob Perkins
 

Makes sense about the shift of items for sure. I know more road names and variations have been produced lately, which is good. Not always just more 'warbonnet' paint slapped onto anything that rolls, as was done in the past. 

One downside I still see, is if you now want something that was done 5+ years ago, it's very hard to find and the manufacturer may never run it again! 

Like the F59PH's from Rapido. It could be never, or 10+ years before they do a re-run. I know the Metrolink paint schemes were iffy for a while. 

ST with their SDL39's and C39-8's. The -8's may never be run again. The SDL's, rumor is one more run and then possibly never again. I know, never say never. 

Try and find an HO scale daylight set or CZ set from someone. If you're new to the hobby, want a complete train, may not be possible. Or if it is, could take years and lots of online searches and visits to lots of train shows. 

Mike ONeill
Parker, CO

From what I understand, a lot of the increase is in local, state and federal taxes that increase as a percentage of the increased base gas price. For example, in Indiana, per an article in the local news, with gas about $4.39 per gallon, local tax now is 24.1 cents, state 32 cents and federal 18.4 cents per gallon. So, the higher the price of gasoline, the more revenue the tax collectors get. Do the legislators set a cap or just institute a flat rate instead of a percentage.? Nope.  And where does that money go? It goes to the highway fund for roads and bridges. And can the legislators siphon some of the windfall to other uses. Possibly.

Incidentally, I was visiting my folks north of me and stopped at a country convenience/gas station on the way to get some gas. Well, the pumps were all "out-of-order" but the store was open. Perhaps the owners were delinquent on their gasoline taxes?

Victor B.



Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/22 22:30 by wabash2800.

dxm332 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Canada has much higher gas price ... equivalent
> of 9.00 us per gallon.
> Non necessities retail spending here is down very
> sharply.
>
> As model trains are not a necessity , its likely,
> as during the 2008 recession, modelers here will
> be significantly cutting back thier spending.
>
> The drop in retail sales is very noticeable at
> my local mall .... not the usually number of
> shoppers... but great for those using the mall as
> an indoor walking track
>
> Posted from Android

And yet in the US

retail-sales-april-2022-up-0point9percent-vs-1point0percent-estimate.html

FiestaFoamer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One thing Jason once said in a Rapido Q/A  is
> that the 2008 recession altered the hobby and in
> some respects it has never recovered from it.
> Specifically, he mentioned (going from memory
> here) that before that Rapido could rerun a model
> with the same paint scheme a year or two after the
> previous run and people would still buy it --
> there seemed to be more willingness before then
> among modelers to go out and buy *more* of the
> thing you really liked. That kind of demand hasn't
> been there since then, so one way a company adapts
> is by investing more in tooling (and running more
> paint schemes) -- the idea being to have a wider
> variety of products on the market at one time, to
> cater to more different niche modeler tastes, as
> opposed to rerunning the same thing with different
> roadnumbers and expecting the demand will still be
> there. Thus, paradoxically (but the idea makes
> sense to me) the recession may actually have
> helped drive the market forward in terms of
> manufacturers taking risks on projects with
> unusual prototypes, roadname-specific detail, etc.
> -- there was less market demand for the "safer"
> route after that. 

That's all well and good, but the end result of that is that most of the really common prototypes are all but impossible to find in the model railroad world... There's a lot of things I need for my layout because they were common as dirt, but they were last run 10-15 years ago and are absolutely nowhere to be found... eBay used to eventually have everything sooner or later, but there's just some things that never ever turn up there once the original run sells out, and that trend seems to be getting far worse as time goes on...

Really common stuff, like Conrail C40-8Ws, CSX six-axle Dash-8s, UP SD70Ms, BNSF Dash-9s, CP AC4400s... Still struggling to find worthy examples in HO of all of these to no avail, and no one who's made them previously seems willing to rerun them...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/22 13:39 by MC6853.

MC6853 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Really common stuff, like Conrail C40-8Ws, CSX
> six-axle Dash-8s, UP SD70Ms, BNSF Dash-9s, CP
> AC4400s... Still struggling to find worthy
> examples in HO of all of these to no avail, and no
> one who's made them previously seems willing to
> rerun them...

Definitely get the frustration and didn't mean to suggest that the shift in the industry is free of downsides. That said, the next run of Genesis UP SD70Ms is due in January, and the next run of BNSF Dash 9s is due in September (these ones in Warbonnet; they've already released a couple of other paint schemes very recently -- plus there are the ScaleTrains ones); one has to imagine the CP AC's will be coming down the pike (so to speak) before too long, too, as those would probably be a cash cow and the tooling is there. The Dash 8s are a little tougher, because the Atlas one is good enough and popular enough that a lot of modelers who want that model have them -- even if many people think they could be improved on and Atlas hasn't been re-running it much lately. (The fact that they may have made too many of the very first run -- I remember the UP and Zito CNW ones sitting on hobby shop shelves for quite a while back in the day -- probably plays into this.) That's a weird middle spot models can fall into sometimes, where the previous examples are just "off" / outdated seeming enough that modelers are vaguely dissatisfied, but ubiquitous enough that companies seem hesitant to take a new shot at it -- I think the C30-7 is stuck in that spot, as were GP38s and E8s before Rapido announced theirs. 

When things get tight so does my 'era'.
There are some great models being offered these days, sometimes the era shifts a little.
 

dxm332 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Canada has much higher gas price ... equivalent
> of 9.00 us per gallon.
 about the same on gas prices down here in Australia. And dont get me started on the cost of my Beer 😎😎
Regards,DK

DKay Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> dxm332 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Canada has much higher gas price ... equivalent
> > of 9.00 us per gallon.
>  about the same on gas prices down here in
> Australia. And dont get me started on the cost of
> my Beer 😎😎
> Regards,DK

Well, you don't really buy beer anyway. More like a short term rental.

We are fortunate now that there are still plenty of jobs available and pay rates are decent,
though between inflation and stock market losses we are losing purchasing power daily.

I have curtailed my spending on the hobby and have concentrated on making small improvements
to the layout and weathering and fine tuning rolling stock, and yet I must be fortunate as gas
at my local Tyler, Tex. WalMart fuel center is $3.99/gallon and diesel $5.09.  We are about to take a road trip
to FLA and were going to take my truck (diesel) but have decided to take wifey's small SUV instead.

If there is a silver lining, this is all self inflicted, and changes coming in November may stop the bleeding.

WrongWayMurphy Wrote:
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..........................
>
> If there is a silver lining, this is all self
> inflicted, and changes coming in November may stop
> the bleeding.

NOW you've done it! :)
 

Milw_E70 Wrote:
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> Nah, they'll just load up on credit card debt

Some may, but my habit is to pay my CC off every month so I charge with that in mind.

As far as spending, when prices go up, it impacts what I can afford.  For exmple, I don't buy every engine with DCC and sound, as nice as it might be.

Things wont change, all the election can do is cause more stalemate.  I'm not saying a Republican can fix it, but pretty much anyone who is actually competent from either party who cares about fixing this issue other than the current man in the seat. Real change won't happen until 2024.  In the mean time: gas, inflation and food will go insane.  I am guessing a recession and stagflation will occur over the next 18 months at least.  

WrongWayMurphy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
..........................
>
> If there is a silver lining, this is all self
> inflicted, and changes coming in November may stop
> the bleeding.