Passenger Trains > Ridership recovery vs. boom pre-Covid year 2019

Antrak published ridership figures for 11 months YTD 2023  - and I
compared them with 2019, to get the following  "% Recovery " figures

Northeast Corridor ---- 95%
State Supported ------- 80%
Long Distance ---------- 88%
TOTAL SYSTEM  ------ 86%

These train have recovered 100% ridership -- and are now doing better than 2019:

Piedmont -------- +32% gain over 1019 ridership
Auto Train ------- +19%  "
New Haven--Spf. +19%
Maple Leaf ------- +14%
Hartland Flyer --- +5%
Was-Newport N. - +4%
Vermonter ---------+3%
Empire Service --- +2%
NEC Regionals - Even with 2019 (100% recovery--but no gains)

The following 2 trains have a poor recovery rate:

Capitol Limited --- 60%  (was only a 2 car train most of the year)
Pacific Surfliners - 53% (did not operate for many months due to mud slides)


 






 

Note that NOTHING in the Midwest has recovered to 100%.. Not good if your west of Harrisburg and not under the catenary (Wild Indian Country)...

Gardner getting the exact results that he engineered. 

PC1974

You're right I never noticed -- that all trains doing better than 2019 are in the East. 
In case you're wonderging, the Lake Shore Ltd. almost made it--with a 98% recovery rate.



 

Where are the rest of the numbers?

Should it be commended that they have regained most of the ridership lost despite canceling many trips altogether and limiting consists - thereby reatraining capacity?

Posted from Android

Wonder what REVENUE is, adjusted for inflation compared to 2019. Amtrak recently expanded its "Night Owl" fares on the NEC to help ridership. Some dirt cheap fares to be found on some NEC trains.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/20/23 08:46 by cabsignaldrop.

cabsignaldrop

Excellent question -- Here is what the revenue picture looks like:
In a nut shell -  Amtrak has regained 100% of its 2019 Revenue + $44,000

Following is 11 months Operating Revenue 2023 vs.2019

Northeast Corridor ------ $1,178.5B vs. $1,265.9B  (93% recovery)
State Supported ---------- $741.3K vs. $739.9L (statically even)
Long Distance -------------$548.5K vs. $497.8K (statically even)
System total -------------- $3,090.2b vs. $3,046.2b  (100% recovery rate +1% gain)
 

ronald321 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> cabsignaldrop
>
> Excellent question -- Here is what the revenue
> picture looks like:
> In a nut shell -  Amtrak has regained 100% of its
> 2019 Revenue + $44,000
>
> Following is 11 months Operating Revenue 2023
> vs.2019
>
> Northeast Corridor ------ $1,178.5B vs.
> $1,265.9B  (93% recovery)
> State Supported ---------- $741.3K vs. $739.9L
> (statically even)
> Long Distance -------------$548.5K vs. $497.8K
> (statically even)
> System total -------------- $3,090.2b vs.
> $3,046.2b  (100% recovery rate +1% gain)
  
Assume 20% inflation over 4 years, that is a significant decline. 

Amazing how the LD revenue is so much higher than 2019 with the reduced consists on so many trains. Guess this is a reflection of the fares they are charging, and getting away with.

Yes, Inflation hurts everyone's revenue figures - unless they can substantially raise prices (which many companies have done)

Unfortunately - since most trains have not fully recovered their 2019 ridership - I guess Amtrak is not in a good position to raise fares enough.

Acela figures  made me scratch my  head. - although ridership recovery is 83% - its Revenue recovery is only 75% ($452.2M vs. $603.2M)
It's "Profit" (Adjuster Operating Earnings)  recovery Rate is a puney 32% ($95.5M vs. $294.4M)

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/20/23 13:00 by ronald321.

Crappy service (OTP, food, mechanical, cancellations) and inattentive management throughout the system prevents them from raising fares and keeping the dough.

irhoghead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Amazing how the LD revenue is so much higher than
> 2019 with the reduced consists on so many trains.
> Guess this is a reflection of the fares they are
> charging, and getting away with.

It sure is - and is RIDICULOUSLY HIGH PRICED!!! AGED equipment since 2019 with no equipment improvement and reliability, yet the prices are sky high. Makes no sense. It's just the supply and demand model, but the supply is STILL lacking. And the growth is being stymied. 

Thanks for posting. Very interesting. 💵

ronald321 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> cabsignaldrop
>
> Excellent question -- Here is what the revenue
> picture looks like:
> In a nut shell -  Amtrak has regained 100% of its
> 2019 Revenue + $44,000
>
> Following is 11 months Operating Revenue 2023
> vs.2019
>
> Northeast Corridor ------ $1,178.5B vs.
> $1,265.9B  (93% recovery)
> State Supported ---------- $741.3K vs. $739.9L
> (statically even)
> Long Distance -------------$548.5K vs. $497.8K
> (statically even)
> System total -------------- $3,090.2b vs.
> $3,046.2b  (100% recovery rate +1% gain)
>  

Posted from Android

irhoghead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Amazing how the LD revenue is so much higher than
> 2019 with the reduced consists on so many trains.
> Guess this is a reflection of the fares they are
> charging, and getting away with.

I guess management's plan to deliberately rid itself of LD service through crappy service, reduced consists and other willful shenanigans isn't working out too well. You'd think by now after all these years of trying they could've killed it all off or at least reduced the revenue numbers to justify it (maybe 50% reduction or less). Maybe LD conspiracy theorists here on TO can dig around for better evidence...

JG

I hear that the Cascades are at 90% recovery, though the Horizon sets that replaced the five Series 6 Talgos we had before the 501 wreck have about 40 or so fewer seats each.

About the Cascades.  I onlyuse them occasionally between Eugene and Portland, But, I have never had a "seat mate", so losing 40 seats per train seems insignificant.

Otherwise,  Isuspect that "cooking" the ## to account for non op days, SAC-LA days, etc account fires, bridges, derailment blockages would show 11-14 did better for the actual days of full operations.  can you post a link to the figures, please?

NPRocky

Here are the Cascade numbers. 2023 vs. 2019

79% - Ridership Recovery (597.3K vs. 755,7K)
86% - Revenue Recovery  ($49.6M vs. $57.6M)

Would be interesting to see the expense allocations as well. How much are we paying for snow removal in Miami in 2023 vs. 2019?

jgilmore Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> irhoghead Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Amazing how the LD revenue is so much higher
> than
> > 2019 with the reduced consists on so many
> trains.
> > Guess this is a reflection of the fares they
> are
> > charging, and getting away with.
>
> I guess management's plan to deliberately rid
> itself of LD service through crappy service,
> reduced consists and other willful shenanigans
> isn't working out too well. You'd think by now
> after all these years of trying they could've
> killed it all off or at least reduced the revenue
> numbers to justify it (maybe 50% reduction or
> less). Maybe LD conspiracy theorists here on TO
> can dig around for better evidence...
>
> JG

Just IMAGINE the growth that Amtrak could have had IF: 

1) The crappy service became better. 
2) The consists had increased capacity, as in additional sleeper quantity for starters to capture in more high-end revenue
3) They stopped the willful shenanigans and actually developed a good product and brand of the LD system - with better amenities, comfortability, and food - rather than looking for ways to cheapen it all up and try and drive the riders away.  

Just some thoughts for improvements. 

I can't, actually.  It's just what we're hearing.  That segment between Portland and Eugene, though, has never really developed all that well.