Passenger Trains > Amtrak passenger-miles have been Declining

Amtrak passenger-miles peaked in 2013.  Since then, except for 2017, passenger-miles
have been declining each year, slowly but steadily.

SOURCE: Statista.com

https://www.statista.com/statistics/185800/us-passenger-miles-by-intercity-or-amtrak-since-1990/

---

well in the west they don't add capacity like they used too is my take on it, running tiny trains as opposed to previous years

they moved to higher fare buckets around this time?   fewer passengers at higher revenue, equals less loss per passenger,,because every passenger is a loss, fewer  pax = fewer loses?



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/30/19 08:46 by dan.

Given the miscreants running Amtrak right now, this is surprising or newsworthy how?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/19 11:36 by ColdRainAndSnow.

ColdRainAndSnow Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Given the miscreants running Amtrak right now,
> this is suprising or newsworthy how?

That's not my conclusion based on the charts. Any explanation on why 2013 had such a jump? The trend seems flat otherwise.

Public transit has seen a nationwide decline in passenger miles.

Only follows it would affect Amtrak as well.

dan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> well in the west they don't add capacity like they
> used too is my take on it, running tiny trains as
> opposed to previous years

Which trains have reduced capacity since 2013?  LD consists seem pretty similar to me...if anything, Amtrak has seemed more willing in the past couple of years to add capacity around holidays.  It would be interesting to know if the revenue trend is similar, or if Amtrak is focusing more on revenue per passenger mile than on simply carrying more people.  Personally I believe their mandate should be to serve more people, but I don’t think the current management or current USDOT would agree.

Dave

Pullman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Public transit has seen a nationwide decline in
> passenger miles.
>
> Only follows it would affect Amtrak as well.
Yes, while this may be true, poor service such as trains running hours and sometimes the next day late causes folks to make other arrangements to travel.  Blame this on Amtrak's current management - this is the main reason.
John in White Marsh, Maryland

Passenger miles have been removed from their monthly reports. When they had it, that of the NEC was less than the rest of the national network, so the reasons whythey removed that are obvious. 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/19 05:11 by joemvcnj.

This thread is proof that a chart like this can be used by Mr. Anderson to mislead us when he starts to initiate train-offs.

We all looked at the chart  and jumped to the conclusion that Amtrak is declining. Anderson will say -- Amtrak is declining. We need to cut cost. The Eagle has to go, or, the Crescent has to go, etc., etc.,

Yet, "passenger miles" is a measurement figure that can be highly manipulated.  Here are just a few examples"

.  "Sold Out" trains.  passenger miles can't grow if trains have no available capacity.  And we all know Amtrak has sold out trains--sometimes months in advance,
.  Reduced consist.  Simply remove a coach here or there and you will cause downward pressure on "passenger miles" (hasen't Anderson done exactly this?).
.  Declining capacity will result in declining passenger miles. - isn't this the basis of Anderson's refusal to buy new passenger cars?
.  lest we forget, downgrading service will reduce ridership and thus passenger miles. (mission accomplished by Anderson on the LSL).





 

A lot of irresponsible Anderson criticism in this thread. 

I’m waiting for someone to explain how this decline, which started in 2014, is Anderson’s fault, even though he started with Amtrak in 2017. 

 

It might be illuminating for a statistician or economist to run an analysis. Determine and assign values to variables that might impact travel, like price, on time performance, schedule changes, food service, passenger complaints and the like. Include variables for competitors.

Then run a multiple regression analysis to see which factors are most important.

Look at fares and costs (marginal, avoidable and the like). See what the numbers show.

Looking at airlines, passengers apparently look first at price. Business and 1st are filled with business and 1% for whom price is not that important.

But,you need valid numbers for costs to do this!

Political considerations are hard to quantify. Perhaps game theory analysis would help.

See what the numbers actually show. Anecdotal reports may be contradicted by a real analysis of the numbers.

Steve Barkley

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/19 06:10 by BaylorMax.

Altoonafan:

Nobody will disagree with You.  The neglect of Amtrak started long before Anderson

There were decades of starvation budgets-- a hostile Congress --witch hunts by John Mica calling Amtrak a Soviet Style railroad--and before him, a hostile John McCain.

But Anderson is doing the damage NOW--with his downgrading of service; bus bridge idea, etc. despite a much more favorable attitude from Congress 

What Amtrak CEO's did in the past no longer matters -- Anderson deserves dual criticism for failure to improve Amtrak--while at the same time downgrading it.



 

Past decisions absolutely matter.  Changing the service offerings and culture of a company take years, especially one that is as heavily political as Amtrak is. 

Where are the Viewliner II Sleepers that Joe Boardman told us would be in service by 2015?  The lack of those cars hurts the ability to add capacity. The train offs of the 90s are also hurting capacity today. 

Anderson is doing plenty to improve Amtrak. New Acelas, new LDT locomotives, and beginning to replace the Amfleet I cars. Not to mention more efficient dining on the Capitol Limited and Lake Shore Limited. 

Pullman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Public transit has seen a nationwide decline in
> passenger miles.
>
> Only follows it would affect Amtrak as well.



True. And it's been going on for 100 years, with only a few bumps (like WWII). It's not due to any one cause, it's the result of long-term secular changes in land use development and dropping costs to operate the other modes.

The real decline can be seen when looking at the PERCENT of passenger-miles carried by Amtrak (or other public transport orgs & modes). Amtrak aka intercity passenger rail is now at about 0.18 percent, and declining. It's not coming back.
 

There have been several wrecks with fatalaties in the news(2015 was big one) and they get a lot of press.  Not something I worry about but is never a positive and people have questioned me about that.  AmWreck is not an unheard of term.
Whose fault, Amtrak, Railroad, vandals, Truck driver, it doesn't matter to traveller.

Delayed trains are common in the news, floods, snow etc, Railroad congestion, doesn't matter.  Delays make the local news even more.  So a long delayed train(s) may make news in Champaign, Kalamazoo etc and tend to be word of mouth in smaller communities.  Drive or take the train to Chicago???? for a day or weekend??

Travel Trends- As i have noted, travel from colleges has changed.  Dedicated bus to locations where people live or airport is a big factor.  Rental Cars, students group with a direr 25 or older.

Fares matter. Not sure what happened on that front.  I tried to look at revenue on the site but needed subscription.  I think as has been noted, passenger miles are greatly affected by long distance trains.

Antedotal- Taking Chief to Albuqurque from Princeton, IL I checked price and coach was reasonable, roomette coming back was OK but going out roomette would have cost me alone what Airfare for whole trip  and part of my rental car when I got there.  So i went coach one way and roomette back.  Seeing high price can discourge casual trveller.

Bob jordan

 

Revenue per passenger mile would be helpful, as would % of seats occupied, etc.

The Congressional mandate to stop giving away seats may have affected ridership. Nickel a mile fares look good for passenger miles, but not good for revenue miles.

Posted from Android

cchan006 Wrote:

> That's not my conclusion based on the charts. Any
> explanation on why 2013 had such a jump? The trend
> seems flat otherwise.

Was that not the summer of $4 - $5 gasoline ?

joemvcnj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> cchan006 Wrote:
>
> > That's not my conclusion based on the charts.
> Any
> > explanation on why 2013 had such a jump? The
> trend
> > seems flat otherwise.
>
> Was that not the summer of $4 - $5 gasoline ?

I think so, and right now in 2019, gas prices are approaching that level. I'm being simplistic, but in 2013, people in general were somewhat frugal due to the Great Recession, but people today feel more confident about the economy, so they might keep driving this summer.

cchan006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ColdRainAndSnow Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Given the miscreants running Amtrak right now,
> > this is surprising or newsworthy how?
>
> That's not my conclusion based on the charts. Any
> explanation on why 2013 had such a jump? The trend
> seems flat otherwise.

If the goal is to grow ridership of our national rail network, and Amtrak's incompetent leadership has been actively taking measures to sabotage that goal, that's the point. It will remain flat or decrease until said miscreants are replaced with leadership who understand their jobs and execute them well.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/28/19 11:36 by ColdRainAndSnow.

ronald321 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This thread is proof that a chart like this can be
> used by Mr. Anderson to mislead us when he starts
> to initiate train-offs.

To echo the comments above, I think it's premature to speculate that, regardless of Anderson's faults. However, Gardner has been around Amtrak since 2009, and how he thinks he is Mr. Corridor, he's likely interested in chopping up LD trains, if not eliminate them.