Passenger Trains > Amtraks new financial lie?

            When the LD trains are finally gone after the tri weekly game, what will the Amtrak executive gurus blaim for the NEC still losing money. Or, losing MORE money than before, correction.

My guess is the Coronavirus which has caused people to quit traveling.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/10/20 13:00 by DevalDragon.

If Amtrak gets what it wants (through lack of intervention) by cutting off states' service, there will be a reckoning day. The states that remain with service will have to cough up more.

DevalDragon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My guess is the Coronavirus which has caused
> people to quit traveling.

Yesterday, I flew on a 777 from Denver to Houston.  There were 350 people on board.  People are traveling.  They just don't travel on Amtrak, because it's not efficient transportation, even before it went to 3 days a week.

 

ShortlinesUSA Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> DevalDragon Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > My guess is the Coronavirus which has caused
> > people to quit traveling.
>
> Yesterday, I flew on a 777 from Denver to
> Houston.  There were 350 people on board. 
> People are traveling.  They just don't travel on
> Amtrak, because it's not efficient transportation,
> even before it went to 3 days a week.
>

that is great to hear that people are traveling.  our economy sure needs it.............

66

Still waiting for someone to show us any common carrier, whether it be air, rail or bus that shows passenger loadings anywhere near 2019 levels.

Sure you might find one packed airplane here or there. But the frequency is cut back so much they force everyone to crowd into a single aircraft.

The question is not so much what Amtrak was, or is, but what it could be. Current Amtrak mismangers simply don’t believe in their product. The purpose of their product is primarily to provide a transportation service, only secondarily to “make a profit”. Provide the service then think about how to generate a profit. But never should be service sacrificed for failure to generate profit.

Yes, I know, the law says Amtrak is supposed generate a profit but that is a fantasy that nobody believes. That is easily demonstrated by pointing out that at no time in it’s history has anyone been banging on Amtrak’s door, cash in hand, wanting to invest. If profit was possible the freight railroads that couldn’t wait to unload their passenger services, would never have deprived themselves of that chance to impress their stockholders.

Instead of pursuing the fairytale of profit, Amtrak’s mismanagement should increase the quality of service so the public wants to ride trains. Then think about how to do it with economic efficiency. Only then will Amtrak’s mismanagers become managers of a quality public service. Probably means “cleaning house” at the top level, as Biden is reported to have said. 

John Webb
Trinidad, CA
ShortlinesUSA Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> DevalDragon Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > My guess is the Coronavirus which has caused
> > people to quit traveling.
>
> Yesterday, I flew on a 777 from Denver to
> Houston.  There were 350 people on board. 
> People are traveling.  They just don't travel on
> Amtrak, because it's not efficient transportation,
> even before it went to 3 days a week.
>
>  

John Webb
Trinidad, CA

ShortlinesUSA Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yesterday, I flew on a 777 from Denver to
> Houston.  There were 350 people on board. 
> People are traveling.  They just don't travel on
> Amtrak, because it's not efficient transportation,
> even before it went to 3 days a week.

What percentage of pre-pandemic flights are still flying ?   
Some tri-weekly trains are booking up weeks in advance, with a 50% cap on capacity, and no consist expansions. 
Lack of supply causes lack of demand.

Amtk's mgmt and mission has always been  political football.  

Need someone young and energetic who believes in the product.   Too many ppl either getting a political spoils job, or old retired guys, who see their job as maintaining the status quo, or just following whatever mindless diorective is handed down.   Getting Amtrak turned around requires someone who wants to work 60 hours a week "making in into a railroad"

Richard Amderson actually had a plan to make amtrak a preferred way to travel, but he cut too much in the very beginning, and pissed off too many ppl.  
Unfortunately, LD travel is largely liesure travel, and he's not a liesure travel guy.

ShortlinesUSA Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Yesterday, I flew on a 777 from Denver to
> Houston.  There were 350 people on board. 
> People are traveling.  They just don't travel on
> Amtrak, because it's not efficient transportation,
> even before it went to 3 days a week.

Amtrak may not be efficient between Denver and Houston as there is no direct service between those cities. But Amtrak does work well for those travelling between Glenwood Springs and Salt Lake City and , and Denver and Grand Junction. In fact one train efficently handles both groups.
 

When LD's are gone where is their money coming from? Why would a state vote to give them money if not served? Nobody else cares about the NE Coridor, me included.

I really sucks some of you guys think its gonna be a done deal that the LD Trains are history just because of the tri weekly deal, thing is if, and I mean IF, they post the 180 day notices, they're no going anywhere, be nice if they get better leadership though!

Trains have been filling to their 50% capacity.  I run the Carolinian, and it has been running at 110-130 folks on board daily when it was 4 coaches and a lounge on my stretch between RVR and RGH.  250 is the 100% capacity level.  They also just added another coach back about 2 weeks ago.  In Richmond, I've listened to folks complain about the non daily service when they show up to buy a ticket for a train that no longer runs that day anymore.  They're not happy!

joemvcnj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> What percentage of pre-pandemic flights are still
> flying ?   
> Some tri-weekly trains are booking up weeks in
> advance, with a 50% cap on capacity, and no
> consist expansions. 
> Lack of supply causes lack of demand.

Joe, I can't speak for others, but United is running 55% of 2019 level for the November 2020 schedule.  International?  Maybe 20% at best.  Probably low teens in reality.

Mike D
 

DevalDragon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Still waiting for someone to show us any common
> carrier, whether it be air, rail or bus that shows
> passenger loadings anywhere near 2019 levels.
>
> Sure you might find one packed airplane here or
> there. But the frequency is cut back so much they
> force everyone to crowd into a single aircraft.

United is flying roughly half of its 2019 domestic schedule at this point.  Every airplane I get on, regardless of the day of the week, is packed.  I can count the number of open seats on one hand.

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/10/20 19:24 by ShortlinesUSA.

Which is why United is running one huge 777 DEN to IAH,  rather than the A320s/737s much more frequently, as was the case prior to C19.  So you have a packed airplane but their overall business is way way down from 2019.  Yes, they're flying 50% of the domestic routes,  but how many flights a day and how many pax a day?   Not to mention their fares are very low,  so who knows what load factor is needed to even break even.

PRSL-recall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If Amtrak gets what it wants (through lack of
> intervention) by cutting off states' service,
> there will be a reckoning day. The states that
> remain with service will have to cough up more.

Amtrak is a contractor to the states, the state government decides which trains, equipment, consist, frequencies, etc. NOT Amtrak. Get it straight if you want to make allegations.

Amtrak's great lie is that they can cut their way to profitability.  As a retired accountant, that is the biggest lie there is.  Yes, there is always fat that can be cut and even excess meat that can be trimmed.  But eventually that goes away and one starts cutting into the bone. At some point, the cutting has to end and the focus needs to be on enhancing the current revenue then increasing it.   With the latest cutbacks, Amtrak has gone beyond cutting into the bone and has reached the point where they are cutting off their hand to save their finger.  While Amtrak is indeed showing gains from the cutbacks, that's a short term gain.  A very short term gain. It doesn't take very long for that to go away.  Then,to add insult to injury, Amtrak has not lengthened its consists to take advantage of the demand despite the availability of extra equipment.  Sleeping car space is Amtrak's fastest growing market. Amtrak says that it costs too much to add another sleeping car.  Well here is another accounting principle that Amtrak's mismanagement doesn't comprehend.  The incremental cost of adding that extra car is more than offset by the revenue generated, especially at the prices sleeping cars command. 

Here's another one of Amtrak's problems and this goes back to the days of Roger Lewis.  Long distance trains are treated like they are Delta Airlines.  Passengers are assumed to be traveling the entire distance of the train.  That's never been true.  The last study I saw said that 94% of travellers on long distance trains are shorts. Or to put it another way, they are travelling from point A to point B somewhere between the train's origin and destination. So only 6% of the riders are taking the complete trip from the train's point of origin to its destination. That's a lot of revenue Amtrak is generating turning over seats multiple times.  And while not as often, Amtrak even turns over some of its sleeping car space at least once during a trip.  

Then there is the issue of dining cars. Yes, they are expensive to operate and no they don't make money.  But even the dumbest Food and Beverage manager understands that it's the experience.  I have no doubt that if someone were to do a proper study, they could find a way to keep costs in line without sacrificing quality.  Forcing coach passengers to buy their meals in the lower level of the Superliner Lounge or the Amcafe.  Neither of these cars are designed to handle that kind of demand.  So, Amtrak turns away opportunity revenue since most passengers will sample the dining car at least once on a train trip.  

Then there is Amtrak's greatest lie.  The North East Corridor is profitable.  Uh, no it's not.  While it is true that the NEC is Amtrak's pride and joy, it is also the single most expensive part of Amtrak to operate.  Amtrak uses "creative accounting" to make the corridor look profitable when it really isn't.  It reminds me of how the Chicago and North Western used to claim their commuter trains were "profitable" during the 1960's and early 1970s. I'd be willing to bet that a Chief Financial Officer who would put Amtrak in line with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, where expenses were properly matched against revenues, he or she would find that the NEC is the biggest drain on Amtrak while the long distance trains most likely would break even and corridor trains other than the NEC would also cover their costs or show a small loss depending on how many trains the expenses are spread over.  

The best way to turn Amtrak around is to completely clean house.  It starts with the Board of Directors.  All the political hacks need to be replaced. The new Chairman must be a person who understands railroading although not necessarily a railroader and be a person who will look at ways to both enhance current revenues as well as way to increase them. The rest of the board should be populated with business people, members of the hospitality industry and the railroads. Yes, I understand that in the current situation, most railroads would dump Amtrak in a New York second if they possibly could.  However, I'm guessing that if they were given a partial say in how Amtrak is managed, there might be a different attitude on their part. Next, management needs to be completely replaced.  Flynn and Gardner need to be the first to be tossed.  The new president also has to have a fundamental understanding railroads though not necessarily be a railroader and be willing to follow the Board Chairman in finding ways to enhance and increase revenue while keeping costs in line. These are the two who will define Amtrak's mission and set the goals and standards.  The new CFO needs to convert Amtrak from "voodoo economics" to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.  Then there needs to be Vice Presidents who understand the concepts of quality service and revenue enhancement.  And finally, the idea of managers out in the field who are responsible for the performance of their trains needs to be returned otherwise known as the Brian Rosenwald model of regional management.      

I could write a whole lot more about what needs to be done, but that's for another post.  This is, to me, the outline of what needs to happen to make Amtrak what it can be instead of what it currently is.
     

ShortlinesUSA Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> DevalDragon Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > My guess is the Coronavirus which has caused
> > people to quit traveling.
>
> Yesterday, I flew on a 777 from Denver to
> Houston.  There were 350 people on board. 
> People are traveling.  They just don't travel on
> Amtrak, because it's not efficient transportation,
> even before it went to 3 days a week.
>
>  

Must have been one of older United 777, since all of the updated triple sevens only have 276 seats and even the non-updated models only have 362 seats. Either way, what does his have to do with Amtrak, the airline industry furloughed 40,000 employees this week and another 70,000 left voluntarily in the last six months?

Posted from iPhone



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/10/20 20:26 by another_view.

agent1522 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Amtrak's great lie is that they can cut their way
> to profitability. 

When did Amtrak state that it could achieve profitability by cutting service?



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/11/20 19:43 by RuleG.