Passenger Trains > The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.

I know one social media post is just a hint for further research, but it appears transit passenger loading is increasing in the New York City area:

  https://old.reddit.com/r/nycrail/comments/mqbtgb/its_getting_crowded_again/

Brian

Overall subway ridership is 36% of normal, but there are huge disparities by various lines, times of day, and days of week. They only do turnstile counts every 4 hours, so it is impossible to determine what is peak and non-peak demand 

Just this afternoon, I rode Amtrak #174 from WAS to NHV.  Along the Metro North lines, I was literally APALLED at the nearly baren MN parking lots along the way.  Most lots had MAYBE 15 cars in them at the smaller stations.  The lot occupancy slowly grew the further out we got to maybe 30% at Fairfield Metro.  18 months ago at 3:30 in the afternoon, they'd be OVERFLOWING!

Based on what I saw, I'd have to say that the overwhelming majority of downtown NYC workers are either working from home or unemployed.

I had long commutes for many years in Chicago, San Francisco, Denver, and Houston.  There is a lot to say about working from home and getting an extra 2-3 hours per day.

Bob Wilcox
Charlottesville, VA
My Flickr Shots

bobwilcox Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had long commutes for many years in Chicago, San
> Francisco, Denver, and Houston.  There is a lot
> to say about working from home and getting an
> extra 2-3 hours per day.

I always knew that telecommuting would be allowed....just as soon as I retired !

This is a little apples and oranges??.  People in the city must still get around and the local economy works to some extent. 

Commuters from outside the city to downtown office jobs is a little different. 
Little knowledge of NY but in Chicago I can see some commuters drivng in and taking CTA
bringing them closer to work than a somwhat expensive Metra ride and a long trek.

Bob

Trust me, people nationwide are returning to work, but they are NOT returning to public transit. 

BRAtkinson Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just this afternoon, I rode Amtrak #174 from WAS
> to NHV.  Along the Metro North lines, I was
> literally APALLED at the nearly baren MN parking
> lots along the way.  Most lots had MAYBE 15 cars
> in them at the smaller stations.  The lot
> occupancy slowly grew the further out we got to
> maybe 30% at Fairfield Metro.  18 months ago at
> 3:30 in the afternoon, they'd be OVERFLOWING!
>
> Based on what I saw, I'd have to say that the
> overwhelming majority of downtown NYC workers are
> either working from home or unemployed.

ST214 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Trust me, people nationwide are returning to work, but they are NOT returning to public transit. 

I don't think the picture in that social media post was altered.  I know there is a long way to go, but it appears NYC has bottomed out and is starting to rebound.  I further believe NYC is part of the nation.

Brian

ST214 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Trust me, people nationwide are returning to work, but they are NOT returning to public transit. 

Having ridden all of MN lines end to end at least twice in the past 5-6 years, during rush hours, it was about half 'suits' and the rest non-'suits'.  I'll speculate that the suits can do much of their work from home...Zoom/conference calls, customer calls, etc.  They might stay home permanently.  So, logically, it would be the hourly 'worker bees', taking mass transit.  I know that some Manhattan name brand hotels have permanently closed.  But in looking at hotel parking lots in all the outlying bedroom communities, for late afternoon, I was surprised at the number of cars in their lots.  So apparently, at least the hotel business is picking up.  And excluding business class (maybe 20 passengers in BC), #174 had a bottom in every window seat when I walked to the cafe after leaving NYP, and sometimes both seats were filled.  So NEC business IS picking up a bit, although most of the mid-day Acelas are still cancelled. (mostly suits, historically)

Unfortunately, as wifi was working but no internet connection from WAS (and the conductor from WAS told me it was bad ordered when the trainset went TO WAS yesterday), the cafe was closed the entire time as it's all cashless these days!  I went to the cafe to tell the NYP conductors their repeated attempts were futile based on what the WAS conductor said.  I'm amazed that Amtrak never thought of providing some means of a using a dedicated wifi hotspot that is nothing more than a cellphone as a backup???   I linked my laptop to my cellphone with a USB cable and had internet the entire time!  

ST214 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Trust me, people nationwide are returning to work,
> but they are NOT returning to public transit. 
>
Don't know when or if transit ridership will return to pre-pandemic levels, but people are returning to public transit at least in some places.

I'll trust this Streetsblog LA article:

https://la.streetsblog.org/2021/04/06/post-covid-metro-transit-ridership-recovering-while-service-lags/

I think transit recovery will vary greatly across the country and even by transit type in certain locales. While I’ve been working from home for years, I know plenty of folks who are anxious to get back to an office. What I think we’ll see is the folks who have a choice won’t be as likely to use transit for a while. But we will need transit for those who don’t have a choice to make sure they can get to work - we need as many people working as quickly as possible.

Posted from iPhone

RuleG Wrote:
-
> Don't know when or if transit ridership will
> return to pre-pandemic levels, but people are
> returning to public transit at least in some
> places.
>
> I'll trust this Streetsblog LA article:
>
> https://la.streetsblog.org/2021/04/06/post-covid-m
> etro-transit-ridership-recovering-while-service-la
> gs/

"March 2021 rail ridership is at just 39 percent"

39 percent is returning to public transit?  Good lord.

Typhoon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> RuleG Wrote:
> -
> > Don't know when or if transit ridership will
> > return to pre-pandemic levels, but people are
> > returning to public transit at least in some
> > places.
> >
> > I'll trust this Streetsblog LA article:
> >
> >
> https://la.streetsblog.org/2021/04/06/post-covid-m
>
> >
> etro-transit-ridership-recovering-while-service-la
>
> > gs/
>
> "March 2021 rail ridership is at just 39 percent"
>
> 39 percent is returning to public transit?  Good
> lord.

My point still stands.  Here's the full text from the article (with boldface added):

In April 2020, Metro bus ridership dropped off almost as much as rail ridership – both about 70 percent. Rail dropped to 29.4 percent of February totals, while bus ridership declined slightly less – to 30.9 percent. Then bus ridership rebounded somewhat more quickly than rail. The most recent (March 2021) data shows that bus ridership has risen to just over half (51.3 percent) of pre-COVID levels, while March 2021 rail ridership is at just 39 percent.

Thus, rail ridership increased by 9 points and bus ridership increased by 20 points.  Both numbers show that people are returning transit, especially bus transit.  Those are not great numbers, but given the sharp reduction in activity which generates transit ridership and that activity is still very low, it is an encouraging trend.  Your "Good Lord" remark is unwarranted.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/14/21 20:42 by RuleG.

A year ago, NY area commuter rail ridership was 3% of normal. Today, it is 30%. It is expected to be 80% in 3 years. But service planners have proven clueless on which frequencies to painlessly cut, as they seem unable to drill down as to when and where it remains.

Rebound and percentage retained on buses is greater since such patrons tend to be transit-dependent and hold jobs that cannot be tele-commuted. But much long distance commuter buses across New Jersey, some from Pennsylvania, remains suspended - different demographic riding them. .

NYC population outflow is now even with inflow. The net exodus has stopped.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/21 05:41 by joemvcnj.

RuleG Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Typhoon Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > RuleG Wrote:
> > -
> > > Don't know when or if transit ridership will
> > > return to pre-pandemic levels, but people are
> > > returning to public transit at least in some
> > > places.
> > >
> > > I'll trust this Streetsblog LA article:
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://la.streetsblog.org/2021/04/06/post-covid-m
>
> >
> > >
> >
> etro-transit-ridership-recovering-while-service-la
>
> >
> > > gs/
> >
> > "March 2021 rail ridership is at just 39
> percent"
> >
> > 39 percent is returning to public transit?
>  Good
> > lord.
>
> My point still stands.  Here's the full text from
> the article (with boldface added):
>
> In April 2020, Metro bus ridership dropped off
> almost as much as rail ridership – both about 70
> percent. Rail dropped to 29.4 percent of February
> totals, while bus ridership declined slightly less
> – to 30.9 percent. Then bus ridership rebounded
> somewhat more quickly than rail. The most recent
> (March 2021) data shows that bus ridership has
> risen to just over half (51.3 percent) of
> pre-COVID levels, while March 2021 rail ridership
> is at just 39 percent.
>
> Thus, rail ridership increased by 9 points and bus
> ridership increased by 20 points.  Both numbers
> show that people are returning transit, especially
> bus transit.  Those are not great numbers, but
> given the sharp reduction in activity which
> generates transit ridership and that activity is
> still very low, it is an encouraging trend.  Your
> "Good Lord" remark is unwarranted.

I skipped the bus transit stuff since this is a passenger TRAIN forum.

Just a 9% increase completely warrants a Good Lord remark.  

30 to 39% is a 30% increase, 9 percentage points. There is a difference.

Rapid transit has recovered more than commuter rail.

But LIRR tried weekend schedules plus a couple of extras on each branch on March 8. Standing room only, social distancing dangerously violated, people left behind at stations. Decision reversed on 2nd day. Take their ridership stats that it is down 70% with a grain of salt.

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/21 10:04 by joemvcnj.

I guarantee you people are returning to work in NYC. I have friends that live there and they see more and more people out every day. Yes, it is not what it was, and may never be, but it is more.

choodude Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ST214 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Trust me, people nationwide are returning to
> work, but they are NOT returning to public
> transit. 
>
> I don't think the picture in that social media
> post was altered.  I know there is a long way to
> go, but it appears NYC has bottomed out and is
> starting to rebound.  I further believe NYC is
> part of the nation.
>
> Brian

That does not surprise me. I have a friend who is a LSA out of Boston, WAS sends out broken stuff all the time. They sent his train over to the station one day with a AEM-7 that had a big blue flag on the controls and a defect tag saying this control stand does not work. That would not have been a problem if it was facing the coaches, but it was not. They took a HOUR delay while another AEM-7 was added to the point! But yeah, he is so tired of the cashless thing, the credit card machine sucks and some people only have cash. Pitiful that Amtrak turns away sales considering Covid can't be passed by handling cash.

BRAtkinson Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ST214 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Trust me, people nationwide are returning to
> work, but they are NOT returning to public
> transit. 
>
> Having ridden all of MN lines end to end at least
> twice in the past 5-6 years, during rush hours, it
> was about half 'suits' and the rest non-'suits'. 
> I'll speculate that the suits can do much of their
> work from home...Zoom/conference calls, customer
> calls, etc.  They might stay home permanently. 
> So, logically, it would be the hourly 'worker
> bees', taking mass transit.  I know that some
> Manhattan name brand hotels have permanently
> closed.  But in looking at hotel parking lots in
> all the outlying bedroom communities, for late
> afternoon, I was surprised at the number of cars
> in their lots.  So apparently, at least the hotel
> business is picking up.  And excluding business
> class (maybe 20 passengers in BC), #174 had a
> bottom in every window seat when I walked to the
> cafe after leaving NYP, and sometimes both seats
> were filled.  So NEC business IS picking up a
> bit, although most of the mid-day Acelas are still
> cancelled. (mostly suits, historically)
>
> Unfortunately, as wifi was working but no internet
> connection from WAS (and the conductor from WAS
> told me it was bad ordered when the trainset went
> TO WAS yesterday), the cafe was closed the entire
> time as it's all cashless these days!  I went to
> the cafe to tell the NYP conductors their repeated
> attempts were futile based on what the WAS
> conductor said.  I'm amazed that Amtrak never
> thought of providing some means of a using a
> dedicated wifi hotspot that is nothing more than a
> cellphone as a backup???   I linked my laptop to
> my cellphone with a USB cable and had internet the
> entire time!  

That is actually good to see. I know ridership is up across the board at pretty much every agency, but that up number is small, and compared to when everything was locked down. We have a LONG way to go, but until the fear theatre is dropped, we will not get there.

RuleG Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ST214 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Trust me, people nationwide are returning to
> work,
> > but they are NOT returning to public transit. 
> >
> Don't know when or if transit ridership will
> return to pre-pandemic levels, but people are
> returning to public transit at least in some
> places.
>
> I'll trust this Streetsblog LA article:
>
> https://la.streetsblog.org/2021/04/06/post-covid-m
> etro-transit-ridership-recovering-while-service-la
> gs/

ST214 Wrote:
> But yeah, he is so
> tired of the cashless thing, the credit card
> machine sucks and some people only have cash.
> Pitiful that Amtrak turns away sales considering
> Covid can't be passed by handling cash.

On my last southbound Adirondack trip 2 years ago, the WiFi most down more than it was up, so the cafe car attendant said he could not take plastic, only cash. Some people theorize people are more willing to spend money if they charge it. If that were today, no food could be sold. 

Contacting a surface that a Covid-infected person touches is usually insufficient virus load to give you Covid. Money is dirty, but it won't get you sick. The cashless requirement is getting rather silly. Maybe the cafe cars should be equipped with a bus-like farebox to take payments if exact. A touch-screen and keyboard - now that is as dirty as money. Use a stylus pen.