Passenger Trains > Latest Amtrak. ridership figures. vs. 2019

If you're a "Numbers Guy",  you will enjoy the latest status of Amtrak ridership.
These figures are YTD through July (10 Months) vs. record Boom year of 2019.

,  Total Northeast Corridor ......  +11%
.  Total State Suppoeted .........  - 6%
.  Total Long Distance ..............   -8%
TOTAL SYSTEM ...................... BROKE EVEN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNERS and those STILL BEHIND

Eathan Allen  ........................... +80%  (can't explain)
Piedmont .................................  +68%
N.Haven--Springfield ...............  +63%
Caroiinian .................................. +35%
Wash=Norfolk  ........................... +33%
Maple Lead ................................ +29%
K.C.--St. Louis ............................ +21%
Northeast Regionals ................... +20%
Hartland Flyer ..............................+18%
Empire Service ............................ +12%
Cascades ..................................... +11%
Wash-Richmond ........................... +11%
Eash-Newport News ..................... +10%
Downeaster ................................... + 8%
Pennsylvanian ............................... + 8%
Illini ................................................. + 6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Blue Water ....................................... - 5%
Pere Marquette ................................ - 5%
Chicago-St. Louis ............................ - 6%
Acela ................................................ -10% (4 less round trips)
Keystones ........................................ -15%
Chicago-Detroit ................................ -15%
San Joaquains ................................. -16%
Chicago-Milwaukee .......................... -23%
Illinois Zephyr ................................... -26%
Pacific Surfliners .............................. -29%  (mud slide disruption)
Adirondack ....................................... -35%
Capitols ............................................ -42%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LONG DISTANCE TRAINS

Auto Train ........................................... +14%
Lake Shore Ltd. .................................. +14%
Crescent .............................................  + 5%
Palmetto .............................................. + 4%
City of New Oreleans ........................... + 3%
Texas Eagle .......................................... Broke Even
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Silver Star ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,   - 2%
Empire Builder ........................................ -10%
Cal, Zephyr ............................................. -14%
Cardnial ................................................... -15%
Coast Starlight ......................................... -15%
Silver Meteor ............................................ -16%
Sunset Limited ......................................... -17%
Capitol Ltd. ............................................... -22% (reduced consist)
Southwest Ltd. .......................................... -23% (reduced consist)






 



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/04/24 14:33 by ronald321.

Smiling, at end of first group Total System Broke until you read down. Most Midwest down, wonder why?

Bob

Posted from Android



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/04/24 14:30 by robj.

Good numbers.

Are there comparable "revenue per seat mile" and similar metrics available? You can sell an insane amount of seats if you make the price low enough.  Conversely,if you artifically restrict the number of seats for sale, you can jack up fares and make a lot of revenue on fewer passengers.

So lets analyze the obvious that's going to stick out - yet it shouldn't. 

ronald321 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you're a "Numbers Guy",  you will enjoy the
> latest status of Amtrak ridership.
> These figures are YTD through July (10 Months) vs.
> record Boom year of 2019.
>
> ,  Total Northeast Corridor ......  +11%
> .  Total State Supported .........  - 6%
> .  Total Long Distance ..............   -8%

--------------------------------------------------

> LONG DISTANCE TRAINS
>
> Auto Train ........................................... +14% I feel Amtrak kept more capacity (e.g. sleepers) on the Auto Train than what had existed
> Lake Shore Ltd. .................................. +14% New traffic? Popular? OR people being pushed due to capacity from Capitol Limited to Lake Shore.
> Crescent.............................................  + 5% This train actually had more capacity in FY2024 compared to FY2019, particularly 2 Viewliner Sleepers AND Viewliner Bagg/Dorm that had sleeper space sold. 
> Palmetto .............................................. + 4%
> City of New Oreleans ........................... + 3%
> Texas Eagle> .......................................... Broke-Even

 --------------------------------------------------

> Silver Star ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,   - 2%
This train never had its fourth Amfleet II coach restored in peak season to/from Florida

> Empire Builder ........................................ -10%
Train had capacity REDUCED between FY2019 and FY2024 - limited occurrence of second Seattle Sleeper, second Seattle Coach restored recently then gone. Cancelled for three weeks in winter of 2024.    

                                                          
> Cal, Zephyr............................................. -14%
Zephyr ran THREE Superliner Sleepers May to first week of November (rode Halloween 2019 in third sleeper line). FY2019 saw even FOUR coaches, and now it only gets TWO! A third coach was year-round for FY2019. 

> Cardinal..................................................-15%
Runs with at LEAST one less Amfleet II, and business class eliminated after FY2019.

> Coast Starlight......................................... -15%
GREATLY reduced consist - had 3 sleepers nearly year=round and fourth sleeper in peak season; ran with SEVERAL coaches. REALLY sad to what used to be. 

> Silver Meteor ............................................ -16%
Used to run with FIVE Amfleet II's and THREE Viewliner sleepers YEAR-ROUND as Amtrak's premiere Florida train. GREATLY reduced consist. 

> Sunset Limited......................................... -17%
I don't follow this one as much but its throughput of coach and sleeper to the Texas Eagle is not what it used to be. Can't comment completely and hard to describe to make point. 

> Capitol Ltd. ............................................... -22%
REDUCED consist. No Trans Dorm/Sleeper, had three coaches off season, four peak season; barely gets two coaches and two sleepers in peak season. 

> Southwest Ltd.> .......................................... -23%
Same as above greatly REDUCED consist most of FY2024 compared to FY2019. Never ran with just ONE sleeper pre-2020. Less coaches FY2024

Amtrak has severely curtailed the capacity of the LD trains, and I believe that has affected its revenue opportunity and potential. The overall "Long Distance" product has also suffered and reputation eroded. Amtrak kept shifting cars around to different long distance trains between 2020 and 2024 - to what, confuse the public and make it look like they were RESTORING capacity, only to see it cut in a few months? I can attest to the fact that the Lake Shore Limited, Cardinal, Empire Builder, Capitol Limited - they were running with sold out status MANY times of the season. The few LD trains that actually had increased ridership - they parallel more with restoration of capacity more consistently, or less ups and downs. 



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/04/24 15:55 by jp1822.

Cancelling the Adirondack couldn't have done much for its ridership. Maybe that's partly responsible for the Ethan Allen's big bump, at least south of Whitehall.

CPR_4000 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Cancelling the Adirondack couldn't have done much
> for its ridership. Maybe that's partly responsible
> for the Ethan Allen's big bump, at least south of
> Whitehall.

Ethan Allen was the only train serving Saratoga Springs, which does have a GOOD market. And then it had to fill in for the Albany-NYC based corridor trains.......Extension to Burlington also helped I am sure!

jp1822

I agree with your analysis.

I have long thought that Amtrak  management (yes, Gardner)  dose
a miserable job of running things - considering no Amtrak CEO in 
history has ever had the kind of money he has to work with.

Especially atrocious  was cutting the consists of the Western Long Hauls
(and the Capitol, and Florida trains in the East)

A lot of trains produced some  very nice increases (over a record year) - even a few Long Hauls.

I give Gardner no credit for this -- because I can't point to a single thing, where he improved these
trains over 2019.  I guess the Public just decided to try these trains again

 

No wonder some trains have lower patronage. They are running with fewer cars an sell out due to no availability.

Yup.  Reduce seats; turn away customers.   Serve really crappy food; turn off riders.
Good work,Steve.  Going to be sad but funny when Acela 2 fails and the old ones emulate the Chargers.

Lakawanna484

You raised an interesting point about the effect of fare manipulation on ridership

Airlines play EXACTLY this game.  It's widely reported that they constrain capacity,
for the purpose of keeping fares high.

When I get a moment, I will compare Amtrak REVENUE to the above ridership figures --
just to see if they tell us anything.  (I'll post it under a new thread).

ronald321 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lakawanna484
>
> You raised an interesting point about the effect
> of fare manipulation on ridership
>
> Airlines play EXACTLY this game.  It's widely
> reported that they constrain capacity,
> for the purpose of keeping fares high.
>
> When I get a moment, I will compare Amtrak REVENUE
> to the above ridership figures --
> just to see if they tell us anything.  (I'll post
> it under a new thread).

I bet that it will show near flat revenue between 2019 and 2024 for Amtrak long distance trains, as fares have risen with the decline of capacity. Its Economics 101.

The main question is - how much SHOULD Amtrak being restricting capacity and raising fares in the overall business model and spirit of their formation? This is the line that I believe they've overstepped. AND, how much revenue is being left on the table due to capacity restrictions. Airlines are "for-profit" and have shareholders on Wall Street. Amtrak doesn't have such governance.

Let's back up - Amtrak at some point proposed a capital and operating plan to have XX amount of equipment in its ownership for operations. They made that plea to Congress and won it. Congress approved the purchase of equipment to get Amtrak to XX amount of equipment in its total pool - same analogy for the States. But it needs to go a step further, what is the equipment utilization rate and is THAT justified??? It's NOT just with what is "in service" but also with what is "not assigned" or "parked." Thin yin-yang pull is trying to break even with XX equipment in operation and ensuring Congress appropriates enough money for said operations.

Are two Superliner coaches or three Amfleet II coaches on a LD route cutting it in utilization and serving the general public with public funds being used to operate and purchase XX equipment??? Amtrak has a LOT to answer for but I don't think the right questions are being asked of Amtrak by those governing Amtrak. It's often forgotten, in general that there's more than just "Amtrak Northeast" and "Amtrak West Coast."

jp1822 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So lets analyze the obvious that's going to stick
> out - yet it shouldn't. 
>
> ronald321 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > If you're a "Numbers Guy",  you will enjoy the
> > latest status of Amtrak ridership.
> > These figures are YTD through July (10 Months)
> vs.
> > record Boom year of 2019.
> >
> > ,  Total Northeast Corridor ......  +11%
> > .  Total State Supported .........  - 6%
> > .  Total Long Distance ..............   -8%
>
> --------------------------------------------------
>
>
> > LONG DISTANCE TRAINS
> >
> > Auto
> Train ...........................................
> +14% I feel Amtrak kept more capacity (e.g.
> sleepers) on the Auto Train than what had existed
> > Lake Shore Ltd.
> .................................. +14% New
> traffic? Popular? OR people being pushed due to
> capacity from Capitol Limited to Lake Shore.
> >
> Crescent..........................................
> ...  + 5% This train actually had more capacity
> in FY2024 compared to FY2019, particularly 2
> Viewliner Sleepers AND Viewliner Bagg/Dorm that
> had sleeper space sold. 
> >
> Palmetto ........................................
> ...... + 4%
> > City of New Oreleans ...........................
> + 3%
> > Texas Eagle>
> ..........................................
> Broke-Even
>
>  ------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> > Silver Star
> ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,  
> - 2%
> This train never had its fourth Amfleet II coach
> restored in peak season to/from Florida
>
> > Empire
> Builder ........................................
> -10%
> Train had capacity REDUCED between FY2019 and
> FY2024 - limited occurrence of second Seattle
> Sleeper, second Seattle Coach restored recently
> then gone. Cancelled for three weeks in winter of
> 2024.    
>
>                                  
>                         
> > Cal,
> Zephyr............................................
> . -14%
> Zephyr ran THREE Superliner Sleepers May to first
> week of November (rode Halloween 2019 in third
> sleeper line). FY2019 saw even FOUR coaches, and
> now it only gets TWO! A third coach was year-round
> for FY2019. 
>
> >
> Cardinal..........................................
> ........-15%
> Runs with at LEAST one less Amfleet II, and
> business class eliminated after FY2019.
>
> > Coast
> Starlight.........................................
> -15%
> GREATLY reduced consist - had 3 sleepers nearly
> year=round and fourth sleeper in peak season; ran
> with SEVERAL coaches. REALLY sad to what used to
> be. 
>
> > Silver
> Meteor ..........................................
> .. -16%
> Used to run with FIVE Amfleet II's and THREE
> Viewliner sleepers YEAR-ROUND as Amtrak's premiere
> Florida train. GREATLY reduced consist. 
>
> > Sunset
> Limited.........................................
> -17%
> I don't follow this one as much but its throughput
> of coach and sleeper to the Texas Eagle is not
> what it used to be. Can't comment completely and
> hard to describe to make point. 
>
> > Capitol
> Ltd. ............................................
> ... -22%
> REDUCED consist. No Trans Dorm/Sleeper, had three
> coaches off season, four peak season; barely gets
> two coaches and two sleepers in peak season. 
>
> > Southwest Ltd.>
> .......................................... -23%
> Same as above greatly REDUCED consist most of
> FY2024 compared to FY2019. Never ran with just ONE
> sleeper pre-2020. Less coaches FY2024
>
> Amtrak has severely curtailed the capacity of the
> LD trains, and I believe that has affected its
> revenue opportunity and potential. The overall
> "Long Distance" product has also suffered and
> reputation eroded. Amtrak kept shifting cars
> around to different long distance trains between
> 2020 and 2024 - to what, confuse the public and
> make it look like they were RESTORING capacity,
> only to see it cut in a few months? I can attest
> to the fact that the Lake Shore Limited, Cardinal,
> Empire Builder, Capitol Limited - they were
> running with sold out status MANY times of the
> season. The few LD trains that actually had
> increased ridership - they parallel more with
> restoration of capacity more consistently, or less
> ups and downs. 

Good point there JP! I doubt Gardner and Co.'ll ever change that mindset, worse is afraid to run the LD Trains when it's snowing!