Passenger Trains > NEC Travel Mode Comparison

source: Citylab.com
data: Northeast Corridor Commission

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Thanks Gene. Looks about right except for missing the connecting airline traffic on short flights out of Philly and Baltimore.

So many people drive because it is quicker door to door and cheaper. Been saying that on here for years and years. I doubt policy makers in DC and the states even know what most regular people do, which is hop in their car and forget the train.

Running Amtrak at really high speeds (and costs and much higher fares) will never come close to the effect that running more trains to more places with more local connectivity would have. All the Amtrak ridership DC to Boston would be easily handled on a single 12 car train every hour with limited stops and a 125 mph speed. If someone has a pile of cash burning a hole in their pocket, they should spend it on curve eliminations, high speed turnouts, and additional tracks and platforms at choke points like Metropark and BWI or New Haven-Milford. We've all seen over and over where "Raceway" type projects get us in terms of increasing ridership and market share, which is nowhere.

The rest of the slots currently spent running short Acelas and Regionals and Keystones and longer distance express commuter trains should go to interregional trains making an intermediate number of stops and running relatively frequently - at least every half hour if not better. That and service to poorly served areas (Northern Virginia, Northern Philly Suburbs, South Jersey Philly Suburbs, Northern Baltimore Suburbs, Inland Route, Reading Crusader Route, Long Island).

Posted from iPhone

And Megabus, Lucky Star, Go Bus, Peter Pan, etc bus lines offer fares that are much cheaper than Amtrak fares and yet offer similar transit times.

That bar graph would have been a better visual representation if the base line was zero and not 4,000,000. Looks like someone from Fox news drew it. :)

Jishnu is correct. Not starting at zero is a common way of trying to use a graph in a distorted fashion.

Lert's see the graph the way it should be drawn.

B&OB



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/10/16 05:07 by bandob.

Time of day. And day of the week make a big difference, too.


Anyone who has been on the Jersey Turnpike on a Sunday night knows that average time is meaningless. The train will always be faster.

Posted from Android

bandob Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jishnu is correct. Not starting at zero is a
> common way of trying to use a graph in a distorted
> fashion.

Note that the "total trips" right axis refers only to the single points, not the 4 bar sets, which are percentages.

Ray

Jishnu Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That bar graph would have been a better visual
> representation if the base line was zero and not
> 4,000,000. Looks like someone from Fox news drew
> it. :)

I didn't know they could put a number that large together, the zero key must have stuck. %)

Posted from Android



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/10/16 06:46 by SP4360.

no question there's a market, but much of the market is suburb to suburb.  Not downtown.  Princeton to Reston, Yorktown Heights to Valley Forge, Lehigh Valley to Simsbury CT will be done by car

 

CNBC "analysts" would also be quite capable of such deceptive graphical handiwork. Then an idiot like Larry Kudlow could blather that everyone in the NEC drives.

Right. It's a little too much information for one graph. The dots represent total trips (3x as many people travel NY-PHL as DC-BOS) and the bars represent the modal splits. So "rail" carries ~30% of 15 million trips in the PHL-NY market, but a barely detectable percentage of the 5 million trips in the DC-BOS market. In both, the car is still the favored choice, even with congestion, tolls, and all the other ills of the northeastern highway network.

Ray_Murphy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> bandob Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Jishnu is correct. Not starting at zero is a
> > common way of trying to use a graph in a
> distorted
> > fashion.
>
> Note that the "total trips" right axis refers
> only to the single points, not the 4 bar sets,
> which are percentages.
>
> Ray

Paul Wilson
Arlington, VA

jishnu Wrote:

> That bar graph would have been a better visual
> representation if the base line was zero and not
> 4,000,000. Looks like someone from Fox news
> drew it. :)

bandob Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jishnu is correct. Not starting at zero is a
> common way of trying to use a graph in a distorted
> fashion.

Guys, the bar graph does start at zero and shows percentages using the left scale.  Possibly you should look at it more closely and read the legend again.

The right scale starting at 4,000,000 is for the small empty circles which depict the total size of each market.  Its not necessary to start at 0 and would not add any information to the graph.

If you are making fun of Fox News as a low information source, you look better if you get your own facts correct.

Dcmcrider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Right. It's a little too much information for one
> graph. The dots represent total trips (3x as many
> people travel NY-PHL as DC-BOS) and the bars
> represent the modal splits. So "rail" carries ~30%
> of 15 million trips in the PHL-NY market, but a
> barely detectable percentage of the 5 million
> trips in the DC-BOS market. In both, the car is
> still the favored choice, even with congestion,
> tolls, and all the other ills of the northeastern
> highway network.

As anyone riding Amtrak knows, the entire corridor is coneptualized and centered around bringing people to and from NYC.  Travelling through NYC or between outer markets on either side is pretty much an afterthought that happens randomly from some dedicated soul.  At the time the first inbound AM train arrives DC, the third inbound AM train is arriving in NYC.  There is no option for travelling from Philly to Boston (5 hours) to get anywhere before noon or from Boston/Connecticut (7 hours) and arrive at a DC destination before noon except by riding overnight.

You do not write a graph with two scales for one axis, or make datapoint labels look like an axis, and if it is done, the scale for 0% should align with 0 trips.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/10/16 09:11 by joemvcnj.

abyler Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jishnu Wrote:
>
> > That bar graph would have been a better visual
> > representation if the base line was zero and
> not
> > 4,000,000. Looks like someone from Fox news
> > drew it. :)
>
> bandob Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Jishnu is correct. Not starting at zero is a
> > common way of trying to use a graph in a
> distorted
> > fashion.
>
> Guys, the bar graph does start at zero and shows
> percentages using the left scale.  Possibly you
> should look at it more closely and read the legend
> again.
>
> The right scale starting at 4,000,000 is for the
> small empty circles which depict the total size of
> each market.  Its not necessary to start at 0 and
> would not add any information to the graph.
>
> If you are making fun of Fox News as a low
> information source, you look better if you get
> your own facts correct.

Lighten up, don't take life so serious.

Posted from Android



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/10/16 08:51 by SP4360.

JPB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And Megabus, Lucky Star, Go Bus, Peter Pan, etc
> bus lines offer fares that are much cheaper than
> Amtrak fares and yet offer similar transit times.

True about how much cheaper buses are than Amtrak, and that includes the average Greyhound fare, much less the discount Bolt and Megabus (owned by Greyhound and First) and the deep-discount "China" buses.  But there's no way that the buses are "similar in transit times" to Regional trains.  That's just not accurate.

What's astonishing to me is how the share of air traffic has fallen so much.  Among common carriers, the rail and bus have really taken the New York-Washington and New York-Boston markets.  The Shuttles used to be dominant in these markets, but it doesn't appear that they still are.

I believe it's correct that the car is still the dominant mode because of its flexibility (the ability to start and end up exactly where you want) and also because of Amtrak's high fares.  Not as high as air fares but too high for me, and too high for many people.  We'll just put up with the vagaries of traffic or ride a commuter train, if it's available for where we want to go.

It does demonstrate how quickly rail loses market share when it is outside its acknowledged market niche -- travel times under 4 hours.

Once again, this principle is validated.

It doesn't mean that there is no rail market for longer trips, just that the rail market is small.

Air market share comes completely at the expense of rail.
 

I've flown from Newark to Boston, and then Boston to Fort Lauderdale or West Palm. JetBlue sets up many of its $89 fares that way.

Same thing with Southwest. Newark to BWI, then BWI to Chicago.

Not really a take away from NEC travel stats.

Posted from Android

JPB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And Megabus, Lucky Star, Go Bus, Peter Pan, etc
> bus lines offer fares that are much cheaper than
> Amtrak fares and yet offer similar transit times.

How much capital do these companies spend on the raodways that they require to do business?

Try again!

Davis