Passenger Trains > NJ: tunnel apocalypse forecast real?

Regional Plan Association offers the argument that really awful stuff will happen if the Gateway tunnel isn't built. RPA has supported new tunnels since the 1970s.

https://www.nj.com/traffic/2019/02/the-really-bad-things-that-would-happen-if-a-hudson-river-rail-tunnel-closed-even-if-you-dont-use-nj-transit.html

Posted from Android

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Regional Plan Association offers the argument that
> really awful stuff will happen if the Gateway
> tunnel isn't built. RPA has supported new tunnels
> since the 1970s.
>
> https://www.nj.com/traffic/2019/02/the-really-bad-
> things-that-would-happen-if-a-hudson-river-rail-tu
> nnel-closed-even-if-you-dont-use-nj-transit.html

These people have this touchingly inaccurate view that the NYC economy will be crippled by the loss of the rail tunnel. Reality is most NYC workers live in NYC and NY State suburbs and most NJ commuters come in via bus and car. If the rail tunnels went down for good, service would be diverted to Hoboken and ramped up on PATH by running more and longer trains and ramped up on the ferries, the airlines would increase the size of the planes on their shuttle flights to La Guardia, and life would go on such that hardly anyone would notice.  I sometimes think what rail advocates really fear is exposure of how irrelevant the whole thing actually is, which is not a good look for us.  We are offering a convenience though, not a necessity.

When I worked in the New Brunswick area, years ago, many NYC companies operated back offices there. Places where the big shots went after 9/11 disruptions. In addition to the computer back offices, etc, many companies have redundant office facilities in places like Mahwah, Florham Park, Branchburg, West Windsor, etc

Those tunnels have about a 22% trans-Hudson market share. Still a lot of people, about 180,000 NJT, 20,000 Amtrak, and very difficult to shoe-horn them on other modes, especially during rush hours in a reasonable amount of time. The bus infrastructure does not exist. They could not even bustitute the Gladstone Branch the 3 weekdays it was out of service. The bus lanes to PABT are at 100% capacity with 90% OTP impossible. IOW, it is over-capacity. About 25% of the NYC labor force comes from NJ, though the growth is mostly from there. Jersey City (Exchange Place area) has become Manhattan West.

Running many Newark Division trains into Hoboken is easier said than done, then queuing them into the PATH station.There is only one track on the Waterfront connection.

PATH cannot run longer trains anywhere - you know that. NWK-WTC can handle 8 car trains, can be retrofitted to 10 car trains, but all else 7 car trains. Very expensive and disruptive construction for the latter, and all but impossible to do at Hoboken given their station is between an interlocking and the river.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 02/27/19 06:46 by joemvcnj.

abyler

You may think rail is irrelevant, but I doubt anybody in NYC would agree.  NYC is the most rail-dependent city in America.

Most commuters do not arrive by car--they arrive by subway and commuter rail.. (do you know what it cost to park in Manhattan).

As far as the idea that cars and buses could replace rail from NJ - I doubt Manhattan could handle one more bus or car on those traffic-jammed streets during rush hour.
(I've read the average speed on Manhattan streets in rush hour is 2mph.  Great! lets add thousands of cars & buses from NJ to this).

And Penn Station itself, handles more daily passengers than all 3 NY airports combined,

No, its not that rail is irrelevant -  its just nobody wants to pay for major construction projects anymore.

 

ronald321 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> abyler
>
> You may think rail is irrelevant, but I doubt
> anybody in NYC would agree.  NYC is the most
> rail-dependent city in America....

What I read was that the tunnels were irrelevant, not rail.

I suspect that he is correct about how the region would adapt. If one tunnel remained, I could see it being given over to a directional flow during rush hours, so limited service could remain.

The company which would be screwed is Amtrak, creating serious problems for its Acela's, regional's, and LDTs.

 

ts1457 Wrote:

> I suspect that he is correct about how the region
> would adapt. If one tunnel remained, I could see
> it being given over to a directional flow during
> rush hours, so limited service could remain.

 They estimate 75% cut in rush hour capacity with one tunnel . It can't be all unidirectional for 3 hours. There are reverse commuters and Sunnyside yard can only hold so much.
Weekends trains are timed for single threading. in a 23 minute window per half hour, there are 8 slots, 5 NJT, and 3 Amtrak. There is no margin for error. If am inbound train is so much as 10 minutes late, it may be dealyed another 40 minutes.

ts1457 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ronald321 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > abyler
> >
> > You may think rail is irrelevant, but I doubt
> > anybody in NYC would agree.  NYC is the most
> > rail-dependent city in America....
>
> What I read was that the tunnels were irrelevant,
> not rail.
>
> I suspect that he is correct about how the region
> would adapt. If one tunnel remained, I could see
> it being given over to a directional flow during
> rush hours, so limited service could remain.
>
> The company which would be screwed is Amtrak,
> creating serious problems for its Acela's,
> regional's, and LDTs.

Of course they would adapt.  Ever talked with anyone who lived through the Blitz in London during WW2?   They carried on quite nicely.  Ditto Israel when they're getting hit with rockets now and then.  Life goes on folks, with or without certain modes of transportation being available.
>
>  

joemvcnj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  They estimate 75% cut in rush hour capacity with
> one tunnel . It can't be all unidirectional for 3
> hours. There are reverse commuters and Sunnyside
> yard can only hold so much.
> Weekends trains are timed for single threading. in
> a 23 minute window per half hour, there are 8
> slots, 5 NJT, and 3 Amtrak. There is no margin for
> error. If am inbound train is so much as 10
> minutes late, it may be dealyed another 40
> minutes.

You're right. Equipment would run out. But it could be a couple of hours of directional only flow. 

If you can only do so much, what are you going to do? The most important, of course (i.e. morning commute into the big city, evening commute out).

This all sounds like we are a bankrupt third world.country....

Whether liberals will ever want to admit it or not, THIS, my friends, is the crux of the problem.  

$500 million for non-citizens, but no money to re-build critical infrastructure.  

https://nypost.com/2019/02/24/new-ny-health-care-law-might-spend-over-500m-on-illegal-immigrants/

BKLYN Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This all sounds like we are a bankrupt third
> world.country....

From which NJ is trying to get blood from a turnip.

BKLYN Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This all sounds like we are a bankrupt third
> world.country....

Over the years, the Regional Planning Authority has done a lot of blue-sky thinking about transportation.

They favored extending PATH into Brooklyn's Atlantic Terminal junction with the LIRR and multiple subways.

They favored expanded ferry service

New Amtrak / NJT tunnels

Stuff the piggy-bank Port Authority should have been doing, instead of being a dumping ground for political payoffs

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Regional Plan Association offers the argument that
> really awful stuff will happen if the Gateway
> tunnel isn't built. RPA has supported new tunnels
> since the 1970s.
>
> https://www.nj.com/traffic/2019/02/the-really-bad-
> things-that-would-happen-if-a-hudson-river-rail-tu
> nnel-closed-even-if-you-dont-use-nj-transit.html
>
> Posted from Android



From the RPA website:

"RPA is America’s most distinguished urban research and advocacy organization." LOL, no.

"Recent Assemblies have featured former Vice President Joe Biden, former United States Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton..."

Thet are also pro-rent control. Just another left-leaning lobbying org who think very highly of themselves.
 

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stuff the piggy-bank Port Authority should have
> been doing, instead of being a dumping ground for
> political payoffs

Yep, the logic funding agency is too corrupt to even consider them as playing a major role.

ts1457 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ronald321 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > abyler
> >
> > You may think rail is irrelevant, but I doubt
> > anybody in NYC would agree.  NYC is the most
> > rail-dependent city in America....
>
> What I read was that the tunnels were irrelevant,
> not rail.
>
> I suspect that he is correct about how the region
> would adapt. If one tunnel remained, I could see
> it being given over to a directional flow during
> rush hours, so limited service could remain.
>
> The company which would be screwed is Amtrak,
> creating serious problems for its Acela's,
> regional's, and LDTs.
>
>  

New York City and State (and yes the US Government too) need to face the fact that they cannot pay for everything on an ever growing wish list. Heroin inject sites and free college while they neglect things they already have is tragic.


These tunnels are not the only example. I don't know how they ever expect to fund the overhaul of a fraction of the issues that the city faces. Yet dream up more unfunded nonsense.

Tragic.

Posted from Android

Before any confision sets in about the acronym RPA

http://www.rpa.org/
https://www.railpassengers.org/   (NARP, which is now often abbreviated RPA)

CA_Sou_MA_Agent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Whether liberals will ever want to admit it or not, THIS, my friends, is the crux of the problem.  
>
> $500 million for non-citizens, but no money to re-build critical infrastructure.  
>
> https://nypost.com/2019/02/24/new-ny-health-care-l aw-might-spend-over-500m-on-illegal-immigrants/

What a laugh.  

Your Party just gave away Four Trillion Dollars to the Riches Folks whoever walked on this planet, including driving up the deficit by an Additional Trillion and a half dollars, but NO You Followed The Wrong Shell.  The Pea is under the Shell that Pays for Fair And Balanced News.

Brian

choodude Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What a laugh.  
>
> Your Party just gave away Four Trillion Dollars
> to the Riches Folks whoever walked on this planet,
> including driving up the deficit by an Additional
> Trillion and a half dollars, but NO You Followed
> The Wrong Shell.  The Pea is under the Shell that
> Pays for Fair And Balanced News.
>
> Brian

Truth usually lies in the middle. Unfortunately both parties are getting more extreme.

We have truly degenerated as a nation when the standard for comparison has become whether our own, self inflicted failure to plan and build is no big deal compared to the London blitz. 

It is unquestionably true that humans will adapt to damn near anything (well, the ones of us that are still alive, anyway, and history is written by the winners). London survived the blitz, just as it did the great fire and the Black Death before that. But all of those events were catastrophes, and neither one of those was self inflicted.  What we’re doing here is ignoring a very real impending catastrophe, at least in economic terms. A catastrophe that anybody with three connected brain cells can see coming. 

But it will certainly pale in comparison to getting sucked into a black hole, so we at least have that.