Passenger Trains > Brightline ridership

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/20200120/brightline-passenger-counts-revenue-remain-well-below-companyrsquos-own-projections

"Posted Jan 20, 2020 at 8:35 AM
In a report to bond investors, Brightline, to be renamed VirginTrains USA, said it barely broke one million passengers for the year, less than half the count it projected. Revenue for 2019 was $22 million, less than a fifth of its projection...."

Keep in mind that is a relatively new service in a state where everyone has been trained to drive everywhere for several decades. Change won’t happen overnight. Once the Orlando/Disney and cruise ship terminals are completed I would expect to see ridership skyrocket, especially if/when agreements are in place with the Cruise Ship companies and Disney to send folks to those locations direct from the airport via Brightline, which I expect they will be.

Posted from iPhone

One caution about expecting cruise ship passengers: they often travel with lots of baggage and they expect to be pampered.
For those reasons Uber and Lyft, plus dedicated van and bus transport for passengers is likely to still dominate the market.
Expecting someone not comfortable with public transit to seek out and then get themselves and their bags on a train in a new to them location is a challange.
Maybe some smart marketing by the cruise companies, like good signage, included fares and guaranteed connections would help.

tylset Wrote:
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> Keep in mind that is a relatively new service in a
> state where everyone has been trained to drive
> everywhere for several decades. 

It pretty much runs through the same towns as Tri-Rail, which has been around 30 years.

Lurch_in_ABQ Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "Posted Jan 20, 2020 at 8:35 AM
> In a report to bond investors, Brightline, to be
> renamed VirginTrains USA, said it barely broke one
> million passengers for the year, less than half
> the count it projected. Revenue for 2019 was $22
> million, less than a fifth of its projection...."

Literally the least surprising news ever.  Florida doesn't have a real production, finance, and research economy or real economic activity like other states, so it also doesn't have a real business travel market that is in any way commensurate to its population.  Florida is a tourist destination where people go to a beach resort or Disney and camp out and vast retirment community attached to a construction site and health care system.  None of those economic groups has a major need for a short passenger rail line.  Their need for Orlando-Miami rail travel is also dubious.

Ask yourself if you've ever vacationed in Florida (and I have close to 20 times), have you ever driven or flown from Orlando to Miami or Miami to Orlando. My answer is no.  I don't know anyone who has ever done this.

railstiesballast Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One caution about expecting cruise ship
> passengers: they often travel with lots of baggage
> and they expect to be pampered.
> For those reasons Uber and Lyft, plus dedicated
> van and bus transport for passengers is likely to
> still dominate the market.
> Expecting someone not comfortable with public
> transit to seek out and then get themselves and
> their bags on a train in a new to them location is
> a challange.
> Maybe some smart marketing by the cruise
> companies, like good signage, included fares and
> guaranteed connections would help.

If you have ever been on the cascade train up into Vancouver during cruise season you get to see how much luggage cruise passengers take with them. It kinda sucks because they can't unload passengers until all the luggage is removed from the bag car adding around twenty-five to your travel time

Posted from Android

History is full of RR construction bonds that were defaulted on, if it comes to that here. Look at the Eurotunnel, which most folks would say has become critical infrastructure -- although the original investors took a bath. Anyone investing in RR construction should understand the risks they are taking -- and should carefully consider the possibilty that revenue estimates were inaccurate from the outset. Would Wall Street stretch the truth on revenue estimates, just so the deal will go through and they will earn their investment banking fees? I can't imagine...

tylset Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Keep in mind that is a relatively new service in a
> state where everyone has been trained to drive
> everywhere for several decades. Change won’t
> happen overnight. Once the Orlando/Disney and
> cruise ship terminals are completed I would expect
> to see ridership skyrocket, especially if/when
> agreements are in place with the Cruise Ship
> companies and Disney to send folks to those
> locations direct from the airport via Brightline,
> which I expect they will be.
>
>
I don't think Disney will ever be using this train to transport passengers to its' cruise ships out of Port Canaveral. They have an extensive fleet of nice motorcoaches and there are no plans to build a line across the Indian River to Port Canaveral. Another problem with dealing with cruise passengers is the amount of luggage they carry as noted earlier.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/21/20 13:41 by DTrainshooter.

Taken from the article :  Brightline says it’s unconcerned about the lagging numbers. In a statement, the company said it still expects to reach the annual ridership levels of 2.9 million it had forecast for 2020 — although not in 2020.

What a statement !  Every projection this enterprise has put out starting with All Aboard Florida's very first one in March 2012 that said the whole thing would be operational by 2014 has been way off. You'd think by now they would have a better feel for what they can actually accomplish and how long it will take.  I wish them all the success in the world but I think we all know this is going to be a huge money loser with or without Virgin's involvement.

abyler Wrote: (in part)
-------------------------------------------------------
Their need for Orlando-Miami rail travel
> is also dubious.
>
> Ask yourself if you've ever vacationed in Florida
> (and I have close to 20 times), have you ever
> driven or flown from Orlando to Miami or Miami to
> Orlando. My answer is no.  I don't know anyone
> who has ever done this.

I live south of Florida and have made several trips Miami/Orlando, broken about equally between flying, driving, and train.  If there were a later-in-the-day train Miami-Orlando not involving travel to Tampa I would use the train even more often (since an 8:10am departure is an impossibilty with a 3-4 hour drive to get there). 

railstiesballast Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One caution about expecting cruise ship
> passengers: they often travel with lots of baggage
> and they expect to be pampered.
> For those reasons Uber and Lyft, plus dedicated
> van and bus transport for passengers is likely to
> still dominate the market.
> Expecting someone not comfortable with public
> transit to seek out and then get themselves and
> their bags on a train in a new to them location is
> a challange.
> Maybe some smart marketing by the cruise
> companies, like good signage, included fares and
> guaranteed connections would help.

Absolutely correct

Posted from iPhone

If Brightline flops it will probably end the idea of privately run rail corridors. If the Orlando extension is finished and this still flops it could be a candidate for a state supported corridor run by Amtrak or a private operator running it for the state. But of course the state would have to fork over the money to acquire it....

Posted from iPhone

less than half of the ridership projections seems huge to me............

66

I have to agree that cruise ship and airline passengers will not flock to rail.  I live in Vancouver BC.  We have the Canada Line that runs to the airport every six minutes from near the cruise terminal.  I ride this train frequently.  Our trains are pretty full at all hours.  Passengers with bags on the airport train are sparse.  Beyond the last neighbourhood stop, the train mostly carries airport workers going to the three stations on airport property.  Cabs were really against the train but ridership did not plummet.  Most locals still take cabs for flights.

DTrainshooter Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What a statement !  Every projection this
> enterprise has put out starting with All Aboard
> Florida's very first one in March 2012 that said
> the whole thing would be operational by 2014 has
> been way off. You'd think by now they would have a

Plenty of us have been pointing out just how far off their statements were the entire time they have existed and used comparable project metrics to back it up.  Amazingly, AAF failed to even live up to comparable project metrics like Railrunner, which was actually constructed more quickly and for less cost using the same consulting firm that is doing AAF.

This makes me think the problem is in the AAF railroad management who continually push these demonstrably untrue and impossible statements out.

> better feel for what they can actually accomplish
> and how long it will take.  I wish them all the
> success in the world but I think we all know this
> is going to be a huge money loser with or without
> Virgin's involvement.

Of course it will, but there are many in denial of basic passenger rail economics here.  Its easy to run the numbers and show why they will never add up.

Their current daily ridership is around 2400 people per day, is about the same as the Shore Line East from New London to New Haven which basically runs from nowhere to nowhere, while Brightline supposedly runs from somewhere (West Palm) to somewhere (Miami).

RevRandy Wrote:
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> I live south of Florida and have made several
> trips Miami/Orlando, broken about equally between

My point was tourists and vacationers do not make this trip in any significant numbers. The market has to ultimately come from residents and business trips.

DTrainshooter Wrote:

> I don't think Disney will ever be using this train
> to transport passengers to its' cruise ships out
> of Port Canaveral. They have an extensive fleet of
> nice motorcoaches and there are no plans to build
> a line across the Indian River to Port Canaveral.
> Another problem with dealing with cruise
> passengers is the amount of luggage they carry as
> noted earlier.

Agreed.  Disney has a nice set up, picking you up at your resort, and taking you directly to the cruise terminal, and the other way around.  Using Brightling would involve shuttles on either end, from the resort to the train station, and from the train station to the cruise terminal.    Meh.

Having just taken a cruise out of Port Everglades (Ft. Lauderdale), it seems all the local hotels have great shuttle service to/from  the ships using 15-20 pax buses pulling an enclosed trailer for the baggage.  $10/person seemed to be the rate and the service is timely and very efficient.  We stayed at the Hampton Las Olas,  across the street from the Brightline station located at Andrews and Broward Aves.  Using the train would not have gotten us any closer to the port than the hotel,  hence still a need for the shuttle.  Even if BL went to the port it would need a minimum of hourly service to be a viable option.

Lurch_in_ABQ Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...it barely broke one
> million passengers for the year, less than half
> the count it projected. Revenue for 2019 was $22
> million, less than a fifth of its projection...."



Shocked!

Shocked to see reality this far off from "projections".

Not.