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Date: 11/21/22 10:53
Transit Death Spiral
Author: Highspeed

Interesting article in yesterday’s San Jose (Calif) Mercury News commenting on how the pandemic affected San Francisco Bay Area transit agencies and that ridership has not returned to the levels needed to sustain service.

Actually mentions the possibility of no weekend service on BART and 1-hour headways during the week!

“People don’t understand the transit system is so close to collapse. They’re on the brink.”

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/11/20/doomsday-scenario-for-sinking-bay-area-transit-no-weekend-bart-bus-lines-cancelled-or-a-taxpayer-bailout/



Date: 11/21/22 11:20
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: Lackawanna484

Many companies are putting downtown office space up for sublease, and letting renewal options expire.

People don't want to go back to downtown offices five days a week.

Monthly rail and bus passes are already taking the hit

Posted from Android



Date: 11/21/22 11:32
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: pdt

I guess it isnt a bad thing to give ppl a heads up about whats going on around them......but this doomsday stuff will never happen.    San Francisco is not going to shut the city down.
Im just surprised that ppl on TO who shud know better, eat this stuff up.



Date: 11/21/22 11:34
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: PHall

pdt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I guess it isnt a bad thing to give ppl a heads up
> about whats going on around them......but this
> doomsday stuff will never happen.    San
> Francisco is not going to shut the city down.
> Im just surprised that ppl on TO who shud know
> better, eat this stuff up.


The Passenger Board, for whatever reason, seems to delight in failure. Especially if it's Amtrak.



Date: 11/21/22 11:51
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: timz

> who shud know better

What should they know?



Date: 11/21/22 11:52
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: pdt

Tell me.  I just feel like its a bunch of ppl with no lives, getting the only stimulation their brains get..by talking doomsday.   I dont get it.



Date: 11/21/22 11:54
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: CPMorris

PHall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> The Passenger Board, for whatever reason, seems to
> delight in failure. Especially if it's Amtrak.
Most T.O. members would be happy to "delight in" success,
but where is it? "Especially if it's Amtrak"



Date: 11/21/22 11:57
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: pdt

timz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> > who shud know better
>
> What should they know?

Not to believe everything that they read in the papers or on the internet, or especially on twitter.   I really dont see the point of posting sensational articles, or even worse, opinions from ppl who dont know what they are talking about, or have an agenda to push.

How about posting actual news.  Not predictions, conjecture, or opinions.   Not enough mental stimulation in reality, I guess.



Date: 11/21/22 11:58
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: Auburnrail

Bus and light rail transit at least on the West Coast 
is perceived to be used by poor people and also the 
homeless. I have been on the light rail transit here
in Sacramento during non- commute times and 
too many of the folks riding it then are pretty scary....
talking to imaginary people and shouting at strangers, 
just as an example.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/21/22 11:59 by Auburnrail.



Date: 11/21/22 12:02
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: pdt

CPMorris Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> PHall Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > The Passenger Board, for whatever reason, seems
> to
> > delight in failure. Especially if it's Amtrak.
> Most T.O. members would be happy to "delight in"
> success,
> but where is it? "Especially if it's Amtrak"

Amtk is SLOWLY moving in the right direction.  IMHO...its much to slow, and the upper mgmt should be tossed.  But just whining about it here on TO constantly, is just ppl being lazy.  Put that effort into writing to your representitives in DC.     I applaud those who do something, and dont just yap here.
IDK what it is about old men and sitting around and complaining.    Maybe someone can explain.



Date: 11/21/22 12:09
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: Lackawanna484

pdt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I guess it isnt a bad thing to give ppl a heads up
> about whats going on around them......but this
> doomsday stuff will never happen.    San
> Francisco is not going to shut the city down.
> Im just surprised that ppl on TO who shud know
> better, eat this stuff up.

San Francisco has been hit by the business slowdown, like many places. FaceBook / Meta is laying off people, Twitter just tossed thousands.

This impacts traffic downtown, local tax collections,commuter rail and bus, etc.

Posted from Android



Date: 11/21/22 12:19
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: pdt

Auburnrail Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bus and light rail transit at least on the West
> Coast 
> is perceived to be used by poor people and also
> the 
> homeless. I have been on the light rail transit
> here
> in Sacramento during non- commute times and 
> too many of the folks riding it then are pretty
> scary....
> talking to imaginary people and shouting at
> strangers, 
> just as an example.

Its unfortunate, but lots of homeless/addicted/metally ill on the west coast due to the temperate climate.   
  How we handle the metally ill here in Calif has never been figured out.   The ideas have been everything from "chase them out of town and let them die somewhere else, to giving them free shelter.   One of the problems is that mental illness is not constant, or all that well understood.   The mentally ill can be totally lucid one minute, and the violently crazy the next.

Personally I dont think homeless should be permitted to live on mass transit vehicles or in subway stations.   It just takes time and effort to separate the violent ones (who should be taken off the streets) from ppl who have a chance of recovery, if u give them a place to live till they can get it together.   We really dont know why some ppl become hopelessly addicted to drugs or alcohol, and some dont.



Date: 11/21/22 12:28
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: pdt

Lackawanna484 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> pdt Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I guess it isnt a bad thing to give ppl a heads
> up
> > about whats going on around them......but this
> > doomsday stuff will never happen.    San
> > Francisco is not going to shut the city down.
> > Im just surprised that ppl on TO who shud know
> > better, eat this stuff up.


>
> San Francisco has been hit by the business
> slowdown, like many places. FaceBook / Meta is
> laying off people, Twitter just tossed thousands.
>
> This impacts traffic downtown, local tax
> collections,commuter rail and bus, etc.
>
But it isnt like economy downturns have never happened before.   Silicon Valley isnt even in SFO.     I can see SJC having to cut back mass transit.   Its not that big a city, not a tourist destination, and has a fairly progressive mass transit system.  IDK that much about SACTO, but at least there is govt there, and some touristy stuff.



Date: 11/21/22 13:00
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: bh35226

In many - MOST - communities with public transit, it is looked upon as a "Welfare to Work" program instead of mass transit. In my city, the transit agency serves only those areas that are low income. Meanwhile, there are many interstates and other major arteries backed up us for miles. The common belief is that the people driving those roads can afford to drive so why should there be public transit. It would only be subsidizing the "rich".

A few years ago, the transit agency was in financial trouble and had to cut bus routes. What was chosen? The two commuter bus routes that were full bus loads of people. The other bus routes, on which very few rode, were left running. 
Oh, and they shut down for 2 or so years after that, only to start again without the commuter routes.

As long as transit agencies work using this model, they will continue to fail.

Bob



Date: 11/21/22 13:07
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: Typhoon

pdt Wrote:

>  I really dont see the point of
> posting sensational articles, or even worse,
> opinions from ppl who dont know what they are
> talking about, or have an agenda to push.
>
> How about posting actual news.  Not predictions,
> conjecture, or opinions.   Not enough mental
> stimulation in reality, I guess.

I would hope you would post the same thing to the threads linking the "I rode Amtrak for the first time and liked it" articles.  After all, those are opinions from PEOPLE that "don't know what they are talking about".  I would also hope you post the same thing on threads from "advocates", talking about the current state of passenger train travel, since they "have an agenda to push."


Somehow I doubt I will see that....
 



Date: 11/21/22 13:17
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: thebluecomet

Let me jump in here.  I live back east in New Jersey.  I ride NJT very frequently (not a daily commuter) and the trains here have filled up quite a bit since the depths of the pandemic.  Parking lots are 2/3 to 3/4 full again and rush hour trains, while not SRO, are pretty crowded.  Off hour trains are doing well on most routes.  There are some that never did well to start with and should have had service cuts years ago, but that's another story.  Now the New York area probably has a much different clientele than CA, but I don't see the riff-raff on the trains or in most stations.  I haven't ridden the NYC subway in a long time, so I will exclude that.  Suburban commuter rail around NJ/NYC/Philly is doing good. Just my two-cents from the right coast.



Date: 11/21/22 13:38
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: Macster

In Seattle - Link Light-rail is back and above pre-pandemic numbers for weekday, weekend, and sporting event ridership. Fare hasn't changed at all for adults but the transit agencies have made it free for those under 18 years old.



Date: 11/21/22 14:28
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: pdt

Typhoon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> pdt Wrote:
>
> >  I really dont see the point of
> > posting sensational articles, or even worse,
> > opinions from ppl who dont know what they are
> > talking about, or have an agenda to push.
> >
> > How about posting actual news.  Not
> predictions,
> > conjecture, or opinions.   Not enough mental
> > stimulation in reality, I guess.
>
> I would hope you would post the same thing to the
> threads linking the "I rode Amtrak for the first
> time and liked it" articles.  After all, those
> are opinions from PEOPLE that "don't know what
> they are talking about".  I would also hope you
> post the same thing on threads from "advocates",
> talking about the current state of passenger train
> travel, since they "have an agenda to push."
>
>
> Somehow I doubt I will see that....

When someone rides Amtk and reports what the conditions were when they rode, the are reporting what they experienced.  That is not blind opinion.  And while think its ok for aomeone to voice opinion IN RESPONSE to something posted, they should at least have the decency to post "IMHO".    As for agendas......if u hate amtrak and public transportation, IDK what the hell you are doing on this forum, other than trolling.  We dont need trolls here.  
When it comes to agendas, Im talking about the cadre of ppl who just cant keep their politics off the forum, left or right.
Of course, being in favor of public money for trains tends to be left of center.....but u can be a conservative, and still feel that as much money should go for trains as for airports and roads. 

Again, if u hate public transportation and amtrak, you might want to stick to the freight RR forums.  Last I checked, there were no private sector passenger trains left in this country.  
>  



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/21/22 14:42 by pdt.



Date: 11/21/22 14:32
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: wabash2800

Unfortunately, sensationalism gets more viewers and clicks. More viewers or clicks brings in more advertising dollars...

Victor B.

pdt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> timz Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > > who shud know better
> >
> > What should they know?
>
> Not to believe everything that they read in the
> papers or on the internet, or especially on
> twitter.   I really dont see the point of
> posting sensational articles, or even worse,
> opinions from ppl who dont know what they are
> talking about, or have an agenda to push.
>
> How about posting actual news.  Not predictions,
> conjecture, or opinions.   Not enough mental
> stimulation in reality, I guess.



Date: 11/21/22 17:02
Re: Transit Death Spiral
Author: Cupolau

TV nightly news philosophy: " If it bleeds, it leads". One of the main reasons you see so many negative campaign ads, is that campaign managers are aware that people tend to remember the negative ads more so than the positive ads. I believe Joe Pesci said it best in the movie "Casino", "It's all about the dollars."



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